By C. A. Chandraprema
May Day this year was different to any previous May Day that we can remember, because this became a test of strength among the contending political formations in the country. Perhaps this ‘test of strength’ element may have been present at previous May Days as well, but it was never so pronounced. On the one side was the government formed for the first time by both the main political parties – the UNP and the SLFP. On the other side was the Joint Opposition made up of several minor parties and about four dozen UPFA parliamentarians most of whom are still representatives of the bifurcated SLFP. It was a lopsided test of strength as the Joint Opposition still does not have a legal standing as a political party and draconian measures were taken by the SLFP in the run up to May Day to prevent their members from attending the Kirullapone rally. Two sitting parliamentarians Geetha Kumarasinghe and Salinda Dissanayake were removed from their SLFP electoral organiserships as a warning to those who wanted to go to Kirullapone.
The SLFP held its May Day in Galle with the publicly stated objective of preventing their members from going from the SLFP rally to the Kirullapone rally in a replay of what happened last year. Holding the rally as far away from Kirullapone was the SLFP’s method of preventing ‘leakage’. However on May Day, it became clear that political polarisation takes place as anti-government and pro-government and not by the names and symbols of political parties. If the two main political parties are serving in a government, it is taken as one government regardless of the rhetoric about being different. In politics there can be no hunting with the hounds and running with the hare at the same time. This writer went around to the UNP rally at Campbell Park, the JVP rally at BRC grounds and the Kirullapone rally of the Joint Opposition to observe the rallies at their peak between 4.30 and 5.30 pm on May Day.
Kirullapone
The biggest rally by far was the one at Kirullapone. Not only was the Lalith Athulathmudali grounds in Kirullapone jam packed with people, the entire High Level Road (all four lanes) from near the Kirullapone public market up to and beyond the Y junction past the Lalith Athulathmudali grounds was one sea of heads and so tightly packed that this writer was not able to weave and push through the crowd to see how far beyond the Y junction the crowd extended. Because the High level Road was blocked, a vast crowd had accumulated on Baseline road as far as the eye could see. Those who know how far Baseline Road is from the Lalith Athulathmudali grounds will have some difficulty in believing that all four lanes of Baseline road were a sea of heads as far as the eye could see. People were so tightly packed together that it was not possible to move through Baseline Road to see how far the crowd extended. This writer turned back after trying to push through the crowds along High Level Road as well Baseline Road.
The Siyapatha website which had aerial footage of the Kirullapone rally had described it as the ‘Vishmitha’ (astounding) Kirullapone rally. Indeed that is what it was. This writer was with an older friend who was an avid follower of Colombo politics.He was told that this was the biggest crowd ever to assemble for a political rally in Kirullapone or indeed anywhere else in Colombo. The only comparison he could think was the UNP’s final rally in Maradana before the 1977 general elections. But he was not sure even of this. Having come to Kirullapone at around 5.30 pm after doing the rounds at Campbell Park and the BRC grounds, this writer can say with confidence that the Kirulapone rally was much bigger than the Cambell Park and BRC rallies put together. Nothing can be said about Galle as we did not personally witness it. You can’t really get a feel of a political meeting unless you are present physically at the venue. Drone footage may not show the crowds properly.
Campbell Park
The UNP had put in an incredible effort into this year’s May Day. Theirs too was an impressive turnout. When the UNP rally was well under progress in Campbell Park, Vadivel Suresh’s contingents were still in Panchikawatte. The impression that this writer got was that there were more buses brought by the UNP than last year. All the buses with a few exceptions belonged to the CTB. UNP buses were parked in the Armour Street area and all along Ward Place and mostly along Baseline Road with buses being parked in double rows on both sides of the Baseline flyover which was closed to traffic. The UNP rally this year was less orderly than last year’s rally. Dr Rajitha Senaratne’s political party sporting the yellow colour came down Ward Place with a crowd of about 1000 to 1500 people obviously moving toward Cambell Park from Hyde Park in a separate procession. Buses with Dr Senaratne’s posters were parked all along Darley Road.
A funny sight was that of UNP buses parked right in front of the Communist Party headquarters in Borella. Hirunika Premachandra had gone all green and was in the mainline UNP procession in an open vehicle. Both Hirunika and Dr Senaratne are really Sirisena loyalists but obviously did not dare go to the Galle rally for fear of ticking off the UNP voters who elected them to parliament. The UNP put their best foot forward but the Joint Opposition prevailed against all the odds. Whether Kirullapone was bigger than the UNP, JVP and the SLFP (Sirisena faction) rally all put together can be said only by someone who had personally witnessed all four rallies.
In any case, the turnout at the May Day rallies fundamentally changes the political equation. The government may have the upper hand because they wield political power but there is a new challenge they have to contend with. All those SLFP parliamentarians who lost their SLFP organiserships for siding with Mahinda Rajapaksa now need not lose any sleep over their losses. Not even the most starry eyed optimist would say that all those who attended the SLFP rally in Galle would vote with the Sirisena faction of the SLFP at an election. Most of those who attended the Galle rally were there due to open threats of disciplinary action and removal from their positions in the party and being denied nominations for election. Such threats may not be able to motivate SLFP members to play safe after Kirullapone. Indeed being identified with the Sirisena faction will now be as serious a debility as during the parliamentary election last August.
Game changer
It was clear from the May Day contest that the government weakened itself by splitting up to hold separate May Days. When the present government won power in January 2015, it was in an everyone against Rajapaksa contest. The message from Kirullapone is that all those opposed to Rajapaksa will have to gang up once again if they are to survive at an election. If they split up at the next election to maintain the fiction that the SLFP is ‘in the government but not of it’, they will run the risk of being routed. Even at the presidential election in January 2015, Maithripala Sirisena won only by a margin of less than 450,000 votes which is roughly equivalent to the vote of the JVP. If the JVP had fielded a separate candidate, Sirisena may have lost even the presidential election.
At any future election, it is very doubtful whether the JVP will throw their weight behind any other political party or candidate. Quite apart from joining the yahapalana coalition K.D.Lalkantha was heard predicting at the JVP rally that this government w ould not last till 2020. That does not sound like the words of a potential political partner. So the remaining partners of the yahapalana coalition will have to strategise carefully for the local government election. The most significant point is that this opposition upsurge has taken place before the people have really begun to feel the effects of the economic crisis in the country. When the tax increases and other economic issues come to a head in and after the month of May, the political climate will be even more favourable for the opposition.
President Sirisena may however not realise that Kirullapone has changed the political equation. After the Nugegoda rally last year, he was telling anybody who would listen that only 14,000 odd attended it. Likewise after the recent Hyde Park rally he was saying that only some 11,000 attended it. Likewise he was shown saying in Galle that according to police reports, the biggest may Day Rally of all was in Galle! This despite the fact that aerial footage clearly appears to indicate that the SLFP rally in Galle was much smaller than even the JVP rally at BRC grounds.
Some members of the government especially in the Sirisena faction have a tendency to say that though there were huge crowds for the ‘Mahinda sulanga’ meetings before the August parliamentary election, the UPFA still lost the parliamentary election. This was due to the fact that the UNP dominated government had given state sector employees a pay hike of Rs. 10,000 and reduced the prices of various commodities including fuel and it seemed as if the new government was one that fulfilled its promises. There was also the political issue of President Sirisena stating in writing that he would not appoint MR prime minister even if the UPFA won the election and to show the voting public that he meant what he said, he sacked the general secretaries of the SLFP and the UPFA 48 hours before the voting began.
Now however starting from Hyde Park and conformed through Kirullapone, the Joint Opposition has begun forging its own path forward and is no longer a captive political force. Furthermore the government has started slipping up badly in economic management which is now working to the advantage of the opposition. That too is another reason why Kirullapone is a game changer in local politics – we are seeing a new political formation that has now successfully occupied the opposition space in a situation where the government’s popularity is in palpable decline.
Courtesy:The Island