by C.A.Chandraprema

The drama that took place both within and outside Parliament last week in relation to the amendments brought to the local government elections law highlights more than anything else the profound political crisis faced by the government. In 2012, the local government elections law was changed by the Rajapaksa government in response to the long standing demand that the method of election of people’s representatives should change to enable the people to have an identifiable representative for each ward or constituency and also to ensure a stable administration or government as the case may be. As such the 2012 law provided for local representatives to be elected from the wards on a first past the post basis, and for 30% of the representatives to be elected on the principle of proportional representation.

The representatives on the proportional representation principle, would be selected from among the ‘best losers’ in the wards so that even under the proportional representation quota, emphasis would be given to those who got the most votes in a particular ward. This system would have ensured a stable administration for a party that wins the LG institution. However this system was not liked by the smaller parties like the JVP and the ethnic parties like the SLMC because it gives preponderance to the two main political parties. However until last Thursday, that was the system under which the next LG elections were to be held.

Last week the government was to take up an amendment to the local government elections law to make some technical corrections in the law as suggested by the Elections Commission. This LG elections law Bill was not meant to change the substance of the new local government elections law that had been introduced in 2012. However, last Friday the government suddenly presented to Parliament 50 new amendments to the amendment to the Local Government elections law to be made at the committee stage. The JVP was completely with the government on the new amendments. These were changes that had never been gazetted in the LG elections amendment Bill. Therefore, no one was able to even challenge the constitutionality of these proposed amendments in the Supreme Court.

Gerrymandering without the label

The yahapalana government has been teaching the people of Sri Lanka a lot of new things that no government in the past had ever practiced. It’s only the good governance government who knew how to sack chief justices with just a chit from the presidential secretariat. Now they have taught Sri Lanka how to use parliamentary procedure to gazette one Bill and to pass a completely different Bill by introducing changes at the Committee stage in parliament. The government can prevent proper discussion and even judicial review of the intended reforms by not including the most important parts in the original Bill and keeping it back till the committee stage in parliament! The effect of the amendments to the local government elections law which was passed last Friday has been to stand the local government elections amendments of 2012 on its head. If the purpose of the 2012 amendments was to introduce a new electoral system in place of the proportional representation system, the effect of last Friday’s amendments was to reintroduce the proportional representation system through the back door without any public discussion at all.

The JVP was an enthusiastic supporter of the new electoral reforms that were introduced by the government at the committee stage. While the JVP leader was praising the new amendments that were sprung on parliament, Dinesh Gunawardene was saying that it was all very well for the JVP to sing the praises of the new system because they would have been studying the proposals with the government at Temple Trees, but that the Joint Opposition has not seen these new proposals or had the time to study them. Anura Kumara Dissanayke said in parliament that any electoral system should be a reasonable reflection of the public support for various political movements at the local government, provincial council or parliamentary level. The old proportional representation system consisted of the number of MPs being decided on the basis of proportional representation and the individuals who were to represent the people were decided by the preferential votes they get.

Dissanayake explained that under the proposed system, each party will get the number of seats they would get in a proportional representation system and who the individual people’s representatives will be is decided on several criteria including whether he wins the ward or is in a list of representatives to be elected. The apportionment of seats will be 60% on constituency/ward basis and 40% on the basis of the proportional representation. Therefore argued Dissanayake, while the positive aspects of the proportional representation system is preserved, the need of the people to have someone to represent them at the electorate level is also addressed and the preference vote is eliminated. Dissanayake contended that a more reasonable electoral system has been prepared by these new proposals that came in through the back door.

Dinesh Gunawardene said that the 50 new amendments which included a completely different electoral system had been given to the Joint Opposition only on Friday morning. Gunawardene said that the Elections Commissioner had said that he cannot say how this this new system will work in practice. Gunawardene charged that the only critera applied is to see how the government can survive politically. Dullas Alahapperuma asked Minister Faizer Mustapha whether he admits that no SLFP parliamentairans have been informed about these changes that have been made? Mustapha said poker faced, that no SLFP parliamentarian has so far not asked for a clarification! The explanation given by Mustapha indicates the extent of the government’s perfidy in this matter. Wimal Weerawansa pointed out that the original amendment gazetted was 15 pages and the amendments to the Bill also ran to 15 pages. Half of what they want is brought through the Bill and the rest through committee stage amendments to the Bill.

Attempt to head off 1977 style electoral rout

It is quite clear why the government has now suddenly reversed their earlier decision to hold the LG elections according to the LG elections law of 2012 and brought an amendment to revert to the old proportional representation system (albeit without the preferential vote system). The simple reason is that the government is convinced that they will have to face elections in the next few months and they wanted to stave off a complete 1977 style rout at the LG elections under a system that tilts towards a first past the post system. One of the disadvantages of the first past the post system was that it tends to amplify victory or defeat depending on what the trend is, and it is clear that the government is on a losing streak. Readers will remember that earlier, the government was determined to hold the LG elections on the 2012 hybrid system which places emphasis on getting as many votes as possible in the wards or constituencies.

The calculation at that stage was that when the SLFP vote is split between MS and MR, the undivided UNP will easily be able to emerge as the largest group by default even in constituencies where the SLFP was traditionally strong. This in fact was the possibility that was dangled in front of the SLFP/UPFA dissidents who were supporting MR. As time went on and things changed, the confidence that a divided SLFP will deliver victory to the UNP has obviously waned. In fact it seems to have come to a situation where members of the government were feeling so insecure that they feared that the anti-government vote may have increased even in traditionally UNP constituencies. Under the first past the post system which was to operate in the various wards of LG institutions, getting just one vote more than the next candidate was enough to get him elected and the feeling that the anti-government candidate may get that extra one vote was increasing.

There was also the factor that at all future elections the votes of the yahapalana camp will be split among its various constituent parties with the JVP, Mano Ganesan’s party and other allies contesting separately. Thus while the pro-government vote will be fragmented, the anti-government vote would have remained in one solid block with the Joint Opposition. This factor could have led to a complete rout for the government under the hybrid electoral system that had been legislated for with regard to the LG elections. Hence they have now reverted to the old proportional representation system where a party even in defeat will get a respectable number of seats to be able to survive. The JVP too supported the proportional representation system because that is the system that ensured its survival.

Govt. attempt to dodge elections aborted?

It is clear that the government had earlier planned to continue till 2019 without holding any election. The LG elections could be put off on technicalities and their intention from the very beginning was to put off the provincial council elections that were to come due in 2017 and 2018 until 2019. From a point of view of political strategy this did make sense though it was not democratic. Since President Maithripala Sirisena obviously wanted to contest again as the presidential candidate, he would have to go to the polls again as an undefeated candidate. If between now and the end of 2019, the LG and PC elections are held and Sirisena’s group gets wiped out at the polls, that would put an end to his hopes of being able to lead the yahapalana coalition again at the next presidential election.

The next presidential elections have to be held before 9 December 2019. However, due to the revolt within the SLFP Central Committee against the move to extend the terms of the Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern provinces till 2019 through the 20th Amendment, any plans that the government may have had of being able to avoid holding elections till the next presidential elections, evaporated. There is now less than five weeks till the Sabaragamuwa, North Central and Eastern PCs stand automatically dissolved and the government has run out of options in seeking to avoid holding that election. As we pointed out last week, the government will be looking at an unmitigated electoral disaster if the Sabaragamuwa and NCP elections are held first because the yahapalana coalition lost both these provinces at the presidential and parliamentary elections held in 2015. Furthermore, when an election is held in a restricted area, the likelihood of Joint Opposition activists descending on the two provinces in their numbers was also a distinct possibility.

Hence the idea now seems to be that it will be less disastrous to hold the LG elections which will be held island-wide and will keep all Joint Oppostion activists busy in their own areas. Furthermore, an islandwide election will enable the UNP to win in areas where they have been traditionally strong so that it will not appear to be a one horse race. However at this stage, anything that the government does is likely to work to their disadvantage. The most important consideration is what impact an islandwide election will have on the political prospects of MS who hopes to contest the presidency again? Whether the next election is restricted to three provinces or whether it is held islandwide, will not really make much of a difference to MS because the likelihood is that he will fare poorly in either case. If he loses badly, that will be the end of his ambitions of being able to continue in the presidency.

Now with the hasty passing of the LG elections law, and the restoration of the proportional representation system, we seem to be headed towards holding the LG elections first before the PC elections. Either way, elections are on the cards and the SLFP rump led by President Sirisena will have to think fast of a survival strategy if they are to have any hopes of continuing in politics after the next LG poll. The options they are left with may be to contest in alliance with the UNP perhaps under the Swan symbol so that the extent of their defeat could be disguised. In any event, the LG or PC polls whichever comes first will be a make or break event for the yahapalana government and a make or break event for Sirisena’s SLFP as well. If the government loses the next election to the opposition, they will be reduced to a cipher overnight even while remaining in power nominally until the next presidential and parliamentary election.

Courtesy:Sunday Island