By

Rasika Jayakody

Members of the Joint Opposition (JO), who are essentially the Rajapaksa faction within the SLFP, are well aware that the success of their political campaign hinges on one key factor – disharmony between the two main partners of the ruling alliance.

Over the past 20 months, they have looked for various opportunities to create disharmony between the two main stakeholders of the government, pushing for the President and the Prime Minister to distance themselves from each other and the MoU signed in September last year.

They had even banked on last year’s budget – ‘Budget 2016’ – presented in Parliament by Finance Minister Ravi Karunanayake – to become a potential flashpoint for members of the unity government.
The UNP and the SLFP had not been on the same page on several important budget proposals and this disagreement caused the SLFP to recommend last minute amendments to the budget, causing tension within the ruling camp.

The Rajapaksa group believed this cauldron of tension would spill over to create disharmony between the leaders of the UNP and the SLFP.

The two parties, however, managed navigate troubled waters and reach a consensus, allowing the ruling alliance to pass the budget with a resounding majority in Parliament.

CB issue

The Joint Opposition’s next target was the disagreement within the ruling camp over Arjuna Mahendran – more specifically, the reappointment of Mahendran as the Central Bank Governor.

While a sizable proportion of UNP MPs pushed for the reappointment of Mahendran, the SLFP vehemently opposed it.

This tussle, at one point, became the focal point of power-relations between the two main stakeholders of the government.

Some even went on to describe it as a battle between the President and the Prime Minister, the two leaders of the national unity government, who worked as a united force to oust the Rajapaksas’ in January, last year.

The disagreement over Mahendran’s re-appointment ended however, when both parties agreed to appoint Dr. Indrajit Coomaraswamy as the new Central Bank chief.

Some members of the Joint Opposition hailed Coomaraswany’s appointment, saying he was the ideal candidate for the position – given his experience in the banking and financial sector.

Coomaraswamy’s appointment and the message it sent – that the two main parties extend their fullest support to the new Central Bank chief – diminished the hopes of the Rajapaksa camp that the disagreement would get the better of them.

COPE hopes

The JO then placed hope in the result of the COPE inquiry into the Treasury bonds issue. They assumed it was a political volcano, waiting to erupt, shaking the foundations of the national unity government.
For a while, it even seemed that they might have been right: It was evident that different schools of thought existed among COPE members and opinions varied over the bond issue.

Some of the UNP MPs within the Committee were of the view that the former Central Bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran was not responsible for the controversy that occurred.

The SLFP, as a party, however, held a different point of view, insisting that he was, and it looked as if the ruling coalition would run into a crisis due to disagreements over the matter.

That crisis was avert, even at the last minute, when the UNP agreed to forward the COPE report on the inquiry into the Treasury Bond issue to the Attorney General for further action.

Although there remains a sense of uncertainty on the future course of action that will be taken by the Attorney General’s Department, the matter did not turn out to be as much a political volcano as the JO hoped, threatening the stability of the unity government.

Remarks by the President on the conduct of the CID, FCID and the Bribery Commission also triggered controversy in the political sphere, rekindling the hopes of the Joint Opposition.
Soon after the President’s speech at a military event in Colombo, the former Director General of the Bribery Commission Dilrukshi Dias Wickremasinghe stepped down from her position, and many expected a strong reaction from the UNP to this.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, however, handled the matter with caution and held discussions with the President in the presence of several senior Cabinet ministers. Both parties ironed out differences and resolved the matter, without jeopardizing political stability.

Indications

It was against this backdrop that the government prepared for its second budget reading, presented to Parliament by the Finance Minister, on November 10.

This time, the UNP and the SLFP had worked very closely to formulate budget proposals and as a result, there were no differences of opinion on the budget proposals.

Both the UNP and the SLFP, in fact, worked in Parliament as a united force to defend the budget, which included certain unpopular proposals such as tax hikes.

The budget was duly passed with an overwhelming majority in Parliament, with 162 MPs voting in favour of it. 55 MPs voted against the budget but it was passed with a majority of 107 votes, demonstrating that it has the full backing of the ruling alliance. (Seven Parliamentarians, however, were not in the House when the second reading vote was taken.)

The UNP, the SLFP, the TNA, the Ceylon Workers Congress (CWC) and the EPDP voted in favour of the budget, while the Joint Opposition group and the JVP voted against.

The notable absentee during the second reading vote was former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The former President, in the recent past, has earned a reputation for staying away from the House during important votes and he continued in the same tradition.

Rajapaksa’s behaviour, however, has caused great embarrassment to the Joint Opposition as the ruling alliance has charged that the former President does not have the backbone to vote against the budget.
The outcome of the second reading vote on the budget indicates that despite sporadic upheavals, the national unity government still has a strong foundation to work together for another four years.

It also shows the Joint Opposition’s real strength in Parliament, despite their constant threats to topple the government by ‘shifting heads’ in the House.

Therefore, the result of the second reading vote on the budget puts the Joint Opposition, and its de facto leader Rajapaksa, on the back foot.

It is against this backdrop that the Sri Lanka People’s Front (SLPF), led by former External Affairs Minister Prof. G.L. Peiris, held a media briefing with the participation of former Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa. The former Minister addressed the press conference, soon after obtaining membership to the new party.

By becoming a member of another party, Rajapaksa officially bade adieu to the SLFP of which he was the National Organiser two years ago. This, however, is not the first time the former Minister tried his luck outside the SLFP – although he began his tumultuous political career from the blue camp, he soon defected from the party and supported the UNP.

Under the Jayewardene presidency, the UNP used Basil Rajapaksa to attack the SLFP during various political campaigns in the early 80s. Rajapaksa later served as a Coordinating Secretary to the late Gamini Dissanayake who held a ministerial position in the UNP government. After his stint with Dissanayake, Rajapaksa settled in the US with his family.

Basil, probably the most nimble-minded in the Rajapaksa family, is the reason for the rise and fall of his brother. He played a key role in the former President’s first Presidential election in 2005 and ensured his victory. After Rajapaksa became the President, Basil was the official troubleshooter of the government, protecting his brother’s presidency under tough circumstances.

Rajapaksa masterminded many crossovers in Parliament and strengthened the UPFA government during Rajapaksa’s first term, as the party did not have an overwhelming majority in Parliament.
During the former President’s second term, Basil, the Economic Development Minister, was the second-in-command, running the affairs of many ministries and state institutions.

Basil Rajapaksa’s strong presence in the government blocked the upward mobility of many senior SLFPers who served in the party for decades. This created a strong sense of frustration among them towards the end of the former President’s second term. The former Economic Development Minister was also at the receiving end of a number of corruption allegations during Rajapaksa’s second term.

It is widely known in the political circles that the former Economic Development Minister was one of the key reasons for Maithripala Sirisena’s deflection from the UPFA government. After the Presidential election, Basil left for the US, accepting responsibility for the failed election campaign and stepping down from all the positions he held in the SLFP – even the former President’s key allies such as Wimal Weerawansa held Basil Rajapaksa responsible for the downfall of the UPFA government.

Before the Parliamentary election last year, Basil Rajapaksa returned to the country and joined his brother’s election campaign. The former Minister’s efforts, however, did not produce successful results as the former President failed to secure enough seats to form a government.

It is against this backdrop that Basil joined G.L’s party, bringing the former President one step closer to breakaway from the SLFP.

“When S.W.R.D Bandaranaike and my father D.A. Rajapaksa left the UNP to form the SLFP, people called them political orphans with no future. But later, they went on to create history, building a party that became one of the two main parties of Sri Lanka,” Basil Rajapaksa said, addressing media, after joining the new party.

He said the SLPF was a new tree coming out of the SLFP seed.

“President Rajapaksa will join the party at the right time. He is our vision, he is the leader in our hearts,” the former Minister said, without any clear disclosure on the former President’s future plans.
As we revealed earlier at a previous edition of this column, Mahinda Rajapaksa himself is not yet in any position to officially launch a new party, as the government is yet to decide the date of the Local Government election: Launching the new party too early will plunge the Rajapaksa group into a disadvantageous position. The group will find they have to work hard to maintain momentum and sustain energy until the official launch of their new political party ahead of the next Local Government election.

It is also important to understand that a sizable proportion of Rajapaksa supporters still stands with the former President, believing the latter will somehow regain control of the SLFP. At the least, they believe that the former President will at some point enter into a peace pact with the incumbent leader of the party.

This formation of the new party and Basil’s move shatter their hopes to a great degree: they will be forced to either switch allegiance and stay back with the SLFP, led by President Sirisena.

It is naïve to believe that the former Economic Development minister is not aware of the consequences of his move. But, the Rajapaksa group is also aware that they cannot go back to the SLFP, as President Sirisena has launched a comprehensive campaign to strengthen the SLFP, at the grassroots level.
Many new organisers have been appointed to SLFP strongholds. The SLFP also set targets for electorate organisers to increase the party membership ahead of the Local Government election. The party’s has also embarked on a reform process to ensure unity within the party. This is a strong indication that the party has already closed the door on the Rajapaksas and their die-hard supporters.

That is why the former Economic Development Minister officially took control of the new party, by becoming a member. He will now do the groundwork to increase its membership and the support base. It is crystal clear that the former Minister will try his best to create a major split in the SLFP, as it is the key factor determining the success of the new party.

“It is clear that the former President will have to leave the SLFP and join the new party. The Rajapaksa group will have to contest the Local Government election under the new party. But, we are not really sure about the time frame. The government is yet to make a decision on the date of the Local Government election,” a parliamentarian representing the Rajapaksa group told the Daily News.

“We believe that the government will keep the election date under the wraps until the last moment and announce the election at the last minute. Then, the JO will not have enough time to prepare for the election. That is one reason why the former Economic Development Minister became a member of the new party, at this point. He will organise the party machinery and strengthen its islandwide network,” the parliamentarian explained.

The new party, however, has already come under attack from SLFP seniors, holding positions in the national unity government.

UPFA General Secretary Mahinda Amaraweera told media this week that no MP representing the SLFP would join the ‘flower bud’ party. He said the formation of new party would benefit the UNP at the Local Government election. Addressing a public meeting recently, SLFP General Secretary Duminda Dissanayake said the party would not tolerate those trying to create internal divisions.

Therefore, it can be assumed that the SLFP will adopt measures to penalise the party members, joining the new political front. That will also make things difficult for the Rajapaksa group trying to strengthen their nascent political party.

Courtesy:Daily News