By Dr Tilak Siyambalapitiya
Nobody wanted the power plant in Norochcholai except the power system planners who were determined to ensure the country got its electricity at the lowest possible cost. With their knowledge of what exactly was happening with power generation in other countries, they knew the only way to rescue the power sector from the financial mess and recurring power cuts, was to build strong, large capacity, cheaper power plants. Norochcholai was the first such power plant.
Decision makers who have no idea of power system engineering, economics or operational aspects, played ball games with power plants. President 1 said, “Go to Trincomalee”, and studies and designs were done. Conflict pushed the project site to Mawella in the South. President 2 said, “Leave Mawella, go to Norochcholai”, and drawings for Mawella were thrown into the Mawella Bay, and designs were done again for Norochcholai. Prime Minister then said in 2002, “Oh no not Norochcholai, go back to Trincomalee”. However, by then, engineers who had realised the bitter truth and calculating daily, what the country was paying for oil to produce electricity, stood ground. “Norochcholai or nothing else”, said the engineers. Professional institutions joined with unions pledging solidarity and kept the pressure on the government to do it.
And it was done and completed in 2015, full 30 years from the first day electricity planners said, “Build coal-fired power plants; they will stabilise the supply and reduce costs”. So Norochcholai fulfilled a historic need, caused many diesel power plants to be retired, and enabled the Minister to boast that he had closed the diesel power plants. No harm; in a national project that brought electricity costs down from Rs 23 to Rs 15 per unit, and that too when exchange rates went up from Rs 100 to 145, the credit goes to all. Declining coal prices too helped.
Sri Lanka now gets 50% of her electricity from Norochcholai, at a fuel cost of Rs 5.43 per unit. Depreciation, interest and maintenance costs add a further Rs 2.68 per unit, according to costs approved by the Public Utilities Commission (PUC). So the total cost is Rs 8.11 per unit.
Approved costs of producing electricity from diesel, averages around Rs 22 per unit. From small renewables, PUC says, Rs 20 per unit. The “Battle for Solar” says Rs 22 per unit will be paid to those who produce electricity. Such prices for renewables are set not by electricity planners, approved by the Public Utilities Commission (after explaining to customers that such battles will cause electricity prices to go up), but by Ministers. The Electricity Act says all electricity shall be procured through competitive bidding!
Arithmetic of electricity production, dictated by Ministers, is strange. Buy solar at Rs 22, and sell at Rs 2.50 per unit, the minister orders the CEB. The PUC keeps quiet. The Treasury says it won’t give any subsidies. No other business survives such Ministerial business mathematics, but electricity business does survive. Pricing games can be played by Ministers now because Norochcholai is providing the cushion to prices (financial cushion), and cushions the off-on operation of wind and solar power, and hydropower too (technical cushion, engineers call it inertia). India builds 1,000 megawatt of solar, hiding behind the 150,000 megawatt of coal power they have; so our government too says, why not 1000 megawatt of solar like India? And Ministers blatantly announced it as well, two weeks ago.
When a cloud arrives over the “battle for solar” Norochcholai ramps up, and fills the void. When wind power plants in the adjoining compound producing at a phenomenal price of Rs 25 per unit fall dead in the lean season, Norochcholai ramps up, and fills the void at Rs 5.43 per unit. That’s the beauty of Ministerial mathematic. When rainfall is down, when half the country is battling a drought, Norochcholai runs on full steam. Remember, even before crops fail in a prolonged drought, it was electricity that was first to be cut: 1983, 1987, 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2001. Not anymore; electricity will be the last to be cut. Norochcholai does the honours, not at Rs 22 (battle for solar) but at Rs 5.43 per unit.
Rainfall has been near zero for about two months now, and Norochcholai is doing its job, precisely as electricity planners wanted it to. All those power plant economic dispatch models, probabilistic analyses of rainfall patterns, irrigation release models, short and medium term reservoir optimisation models, and load flow calculations, were not in vein. Norochcholai ramps up and provides electricity at Rs 5.43 per unit. Not at Rs 22 per unit from diesels, as desired and promoted by many Presidents, Prime Ministers and Ministers, from time to time. They still do.
But, the help from Norochcholai would not rescue us for long. The demand for electricity is increasing at an alarming rate of 9.6% per year, indicating healthy economic growth. Sales growth as regards commercial customers is touching 10%; no wonder, when month after month, Tourism Development Authority announces a growth rate of 10%. High sales growth and Prime Ministerial frowning on cheaper power projects that were on the drawing boards, ready to go, means trouble for power sector.
Norochcholai will not be able to fill the void all alone. We need another Norochcholai, without which, increased wind and solar cannot survive, or rather, the electricity supply cannot survive. So, diesel power plants that fell silent after 2014 with so much of Ministerial boasting, are now being ramped up. Listen carefully the hum of turbines, when you pass Kelanitissa and Kerawalapitiya, the vibration of engines in Sapugaskanda and Embilipitiya. By 2018, the spare capacity of Norochcholai and the once retired diesels will be fully used up. Some diesels have already been recalled from retirement. They are already humming, at Rs 22.Norochcholai is also humming, at Rs 5.43 per unit.
Norochcholai was to have a brother born in 2016, but there was a miscarriage. So, the work of two brothers cannot be done by the big brother alone. So some work will not be done, starting 2018. That means power cuts. So from 2018, we re-join the league of nations that now include only a few States of India, Nepal and Pakistan, where there is load shedding now. Sri Lanka left the load shedding club in May 2002. When we left the load shedding club of nations, almost all of India had load shedding and Bangladesh, too. But not anymore! They got their act together, rapidly came out of power cuts. How? Going heavily with coal and supplementing with gas with a touch of solar and wind. Talk all about solar, guided tours in solar parks, hide the coal projects in the jungle; that’s how India and rest of Asia keep their electricity supply intact and cheap.
However, Sri Lanka government appears to have sent in an application to re-join the load shedding club, starting January 2018.Why? All new power plants on the drawing boards have been cancelled by the government of 2015, “battle for solar” is on, that too only during the day, at Rs 22.
In fact, this time around, the power plant games are the same as those over 1992-1994, 2001-2004, which cancelled coal power plants (Rs 5.43), Upper Kotmale power plant, and ordered diesel power plants (Rs. 22). The individual players who messed up the power plant projects, remarkably, are exactly the same individuals as before. So, the result cannot be different. Blackouts, price increases.
So, get your candles ready, standby generators well lubricated and serviced, with loads of money set aside to pay for diesel driven power. Blackouts are surely coming in 2018. You now know who is to be held responsible.
Courtesy:The Island