By
Upul Joseph Fernando
Prior to the public rally by Mahinda Rajapaksa confidantes at Nugegoda where they proudly claimed that they would protect the 5.8 million votes of Mahinda, Ranil Wickremesinghe threw a challenge asking Mahinda to contest the general election stating he would reduce that 5.8 million votes to the range of four odd million votes. In the face of Ranil’s challenge, Mahinda did not attack him, but got his confidantes to attack Ranil.
They said Ranil was going mad fearing that Mahinda would contest Ranil. “Come and face me, don’t run away”, said Ranil on the eve of the dissolution of Parliament. Following that challenge, Mahinda opened his mouth to say, ” Ranil did not contest me twice through fear and ran away. This time he cannot escape and he is well and truly caught in the contest”. Mahinda made that comment to the foreign media and scoffed that a man who lost over twenty elections was challenging him. That was what Mahinda announced in style to the country.
Mahinda decided to contest the general election as Ranil was contesting it. Mahinda who lost the presidential election was resting at Medamulana until Udaya Gammanpila and Gamini Lokuge disturbed him. Later Wimal Weerawansa and Vasudeva joined that team.
They told Mahinda, “Sir you won through the southern Sinhala vote. Ranil will not get Tamil votes at the next general election. Those will go to the TNA. The contest will be based on the Sinhala Buddhist vote. Sinhala Buddhist voters hate Ranil. You can easily win if we protect the 5.8 million votes secured at the presidential election’.
That was how they calculated the figures to convince Mahinda. Taking confidence Mahinda woke up in style and asked the confidantes to organize rallies adding he would assess the progress and join.
The confidantes dragged Mahinda into the scene thinking that if Maithri led the UPFA campaign they would be deprived of nominations and not for any love they had for Mahinda. They wanted to put Mahinda in the lead and instill fear in Maithri’s mind to get nominations. In the event had Maithri not given nominations to them, the plan was to set up a new party under Mahinda’s leadership and enter Parliament through Mahinda’s vote base. In such a backdrop they held meetings countrywide under the theme; ‘Let us rise with Mahinda’.
Crowds were brought to those rallies with Mahinda throwing money through local government members. The people thought there was a huge tide gathering for Mahinda countrywide. Mahinda’s confidantes showed Mahinda that the 5.8 million votes were at hand. Wimal promised to add another one million votes to that quantum. Wimal told a rally at Nugegoda on 19.02.2015 that they would add another million to the 5.8 million votes.
Leaving aside the assurance to add one million votes, what Wimal did was to get nominations to his party men, defeat the SLFP former ministers and get his members elected. He also had Mahinda’s 5.8 million votes reduced to 4.7 million. It was these confidantes who defeated Mahinda and the SLFP. If Mahinda allowed Maithripala Sirisena to lead the campaign, the SLFP would have won the election. They not only defeated Mahinda also the SLFP and made way to Parliament.
The helpless SLFPers voted for the theme, ‘Let’s rise with Mahinda’ and defeated Maithri’s men with the belief that Mahinda would set up a government for them. In the end Mahinda and his band of men were defeated by the man whom they labelled as a Tiger, Traitor and American stooge. Ranil beat the attraction of Mahinda’s magic pole. He switched off the light of Alladin’s Lamp which Mahinda claimed was with him. He eradicated the power of Mahinda’s ‘charmed ball’ in Mahinda’s hand.
Ranil increased his votes
Mahinda did not contest the 2010 general election, but the UPFA obtained 60 per cent of the votes. The UNP got 30 per cent. This time Mahinda contested, but the UPFA got only 4.7 million votes. Ranil increased his vote base to 5.1 million votes. Mahinda chose Kurunegala with the view that it was the best base where more families of military men lived. He hoped a better victory from that district. Mahinda’s Kurunegala campaign was run by Gotabaya. That was done to win the votes of military families in Kurunegala District.
The UNP was led in Kurunegala by Akila Viraj. All thought that the UNP would be white washed in Kurunegala. When compared with Mahinda, Akila is a dwarf or a Lilliputian. In 2010, the UPFA secured 63.84 per cent in Kurunegala without Mahinda. The UNP only obtained 31.78 per cent. The UPFA won ten electorates at that poll, while the UNP secured five. This time war hero Mahinda contested at Kurunegala, but secured only 49.26 per cent. It’s a drastic drop compared to the figures of 2010. Akila had increased the UNP vote base from 31.78 per cent to 45.85 per cent in 2015. The UPFA ten seats were reduced to eight, while the UNP number increased from 5 to 7.
These developments display the decline of Mahinda’s popularity. At the last presidential election, Mahinda obtained 556,868 votes. It dropped to 474,124 at the general election. The worst defeat for Mahinda was recorded in Kurunegala. Certainly, Mahinda had an attraction among the people after he won the war. That reduced after the last presidential election. It was completely lost at the 17 August general election.
In the early days Ms. Sirima Bandaranaike also experienced the same public attraction. J.R. Jayewardene feared that popularity of Ms. Bandaranaike. He deprived her of her civic rights to disable her from the contesting the 1982 presidential election. Everybody thought that Maithri and Ranil would follow JR’s pattern. Maithri never did it. Instead he gave nominations to Mahinda. JR feared to defeat Sirima. But Ranil did it without fear. And, Ranil did it through the Sinhala Buddhist votes. Mahinda’s confidantes scoff that it was a neck to neck fight and Ranil failed to get the majority. Such are tactics to evade the responsibility of having got the SLFP defeated.
In 1994, the UNP played the same music after the elections. In that year the trend was in Chandrika’s favour, but she obtained only 105 seats. The UNP which ruled for 17 long years got 94 seats in that year. Chandrika’s People’s Alliance obtained 3,887,823 votes as against UNP’s 3,498,453 votes. In Parliament, Chandrika had only one member more. The UNP boasted it could topple Chandrika’s Government at anytime. Then the 1997 local elections were held and the UNP was swept away. From that point, the UNP was in the Opposition for two decades. Today the UNP has 106 seats in Parliament and the UPFA 95.
The difference in the votes between the winner and the loser is 366,258 votes. Will the SLFP get washed away as it started from 1994? It’s too early to make that prediction. In 1994, the President was from the UNP. Today the President is the SLFP Leader and not the UNP Leader. This is lottery win for the SLFP. If the SLFP plans to form a government, the SLFP must be released from the clutches of Mahinda and his band of men.
Courtesy:Ceylon Today