By

C.A.Chandraprema

Just watching the things that President Maithripala Sirisena has been doing, you really begin to pity the unfortunate politicians who were motivated to take his side as against that of Mahinda or Ranil. Last week when Sirisena was unable to dodge summoning an SLFP Central Committee meeting in order to suspend the memberships of five members of that party who decided to contest on the UNP ticket, he decided to issue letters suspending the memberships of those five members himself so that there would be no need to summon the CC for that purpose. The five SLFP members affected can go to courts against this move and make all kinds of claims saying that it is not the party leader but the CC that should make the decision to suspend their memberships and so on. But what is important is the signal that goes out to the voting public when President Sirisena suspends his loyalists by his own hand.

When five of his loyalists decided to contest the parliamentary election on the UNP ticket, they were in fact moving out of their familiar surroundings and entering hostile territory. Some of them had antagonized the UNP leadership by preventing cabinet from drafting legislation to abolish the executive presidency. So there was the possibility that the UNP will grant them nominations and then take every step possible to see to it that the UNP voter does not cast a preference vote for them. But one of the biggest advantages that these five SLFP defectors and also Champika Ranawaka (who was a part of that group albeit from a different party) had was that there was this perception that they were the president’s most favoured, and that if the UNP voters got them into parliament they would almost certainly have the best portfolios and those who voted for them would in turn have a place in the sun.

But last week with Sirisena himself signing the letters suspending the five members of the SLFP contesting on the UNP ticket, this bubble burst and the UNP voter now has little reason to vote for outsiders who they think has influence with President Sirisena. They have seen that when Sirisena is under pressure, he will yield and sideline even his closest loyalists to ensure his own survival.

The signal has gone out to the UNP voter that the best bet they have is not any of these defectors from the SLFP or the UPFA who are among them, but Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNP candidates because just as Sirisena gave in to the pressure coming from the SLFP to suspend the memberships of his own loyalists, he will give in to pressure coming from the UNP to appoint their MPs to the best ministries.

By suspending the party memberships of the five SLFP defectors, Sirisena has dealt a body blow to his loyalists contesting on the UNP ticket. The latter may be able to argue that the president had to do this to prevent himself from getting ousted if the SLFP central committee was convened. But that will not carry much water among the voting public who will see this as a case of Sirisena dumping his loyalists in order to ensure his own survival. As we have said earlier, becoming a Sirisena loyalist is the fastest way to voluntarily end political careers. By his doings, Sirisena has endangered the political careers of his loyalists on both sides of the political divide.

The week before last, Sirisena blasted the prospects of his loyalists contesting on the UPFA list by making that special statement saying that Mahinda Rajapaksa (and by association the UPFA) will be defeated at this election. Now he has blasted the prospects of his loyalists contesting on the UNP ticket by suspending their SLFP memberships under his own hand. Had they been suspended by the central committee these people could have told the UNP voters that their positions will be restored by President Sirisena after the election. But when Sirisena himself signs the letters suspending them, these five unfortunates can say nothing that will boost the confidence of the UNP voter in them.

President Sirisena is obviously aware of the effect that his words and actions have been having on the political careers of his loyalists. Last Friday, the president had made a sudden courtesy call on Duminda Dissanayake – his protégé on the UPFA Anuradhapura list. After the president came to his house and left, Duminda said addressing the media that the president had phoned him and wanted to know whether he could come to his house and Duminda had invited him to do so. The president had then warned him that he (Duminda) may even lose the votes that he would otherwise get if he (Sirisena) comes visiting. If the sight of the party leader at the house of a candidate of the same party motivates the members of the same party to vote against that candidate, can there be a more telling indictment about that leader? What this shows is that you can’t become the leader of a political party like a pirate boarding a ship.

Even the Sirisena loyalists in the strongest positions in the UPFA list are facing problems. Jagath Pushpakumara of the Moneragala district came first on the list at the 2010 parliamentary election. He and Vijayamuni Soysa who came second on the list fell out with the Rakapaksas largely because Shashindra Rajapaksa was assigned to the Moneragala district to contest the PC elections and become chief minister. So when Mahinda was defeated, both the number one and two on the Moneragala district list took President Sirisena’s side and even accepted portfolios in the UNP led government. They are now once again contesting on the UPFA ticket but both of them were hooted and jeered at the SLFP rally held in Moneragala last week. This in a situation where it was Jagath Pushpakumara who bussed in most of the crowds for that meeting from the Wellawaya electorate which is some distance away.

By making that ill-advised speech the week before last, Sirisena has made his loyalists remaining in the UPFA having to literally grovel publicly before Mahinda Rajapaksa in order to prove their loyalty to the SLFP. Even a man as senior as Janaka Bandara Tennakoon went on his knees before Mahinda Rajapaksa at a large public rally to prove his loyalty to the man the SLFP rank and file members believe to be their true leader. Unlike his garrulous colleague Vijayamuni Soysa, Jagath Pushpakumara did not shoot his mouth off and say anything publicly against Mahinda Rajapaksa but the mere fact that he spoke in favour of President Sirisena and accepted a portfolio in the UNP led government appears to be working against him. In 2010, Pushpakumara got preferences from 56% of the UPFA voters in his district. He may win a seat again at this election because there aren’t that many attractive candidates in the Moneragala district, but perhaps with reduced preference votes. He too has had to say publicly that this struggle is to make Mahinda Rajapaksa the prime minister. Even Nandamithra Ekanayake of the Matale district who left the SLFP with Sirisena so as to defeat Mahinda Rajapaksa was seen shouting at the Naula rally in Matale that Mahinda should be and will be made prime minister!

President Sirisena’s game plan

After President Sirisena was forced to grant nominations to Mahinda Rajapaksa, there was talk of a ‘game plan’ that he had to ensure that the UNP formed a government even if the UPFA gets the highest number of seats in parliament. This was to ask RW to form a government and to obtain a parliamentary majority for him through the Sirisena loyalists who get elected on the UPFA list. Confirming this suspicion, President Sirisena had at the last minute knocked off Dayan Jayatilleke, Sarath N Silva and Wasantha Karannagoda from the UPFA national list and included discredited politicians like Jeevan Kumaratunga, Reginold Cooray and his advisors Malith Jayatillke and Shiral Laktilleke. The idea was that he would bolster the numbers of his loyalists who get elected through the UPFA lists in the districts with an input from the national list so as to give the UNP the maximum number of seats to be able to form a government.

The UNP for its part has been saying publicly that even though they are contesting separately, that RW will be the prime minister even if the UNP gets fewer seats and that after the election there will be defections from the UPFA to their side. The UNP believes that by constantly repeating the message that the RW will be prime minister whether he wins or loses with the help of defectors from the UPFA, the number of floating votes coming to the UNP will increase. The more the UNP says this, the tougher things become for those perceived to be Sirisena loyalists within the UPFA! Even popular SLFP politicians like Pavithra Wanniarachchi are having problems in canvassing for votes in her own electorate in the Ratnapura district because of the profound suspicion that the SLFP rank and file members regard anyone who has accepted portfolios in the UNP led government. The SLFP rank and file member thinks with much justification that those who will have the greatest propensity to join a UNP led government will be those who had already revealed their hand by doing exactly that.

As of now, one part of this game plan which was to get as many Sirisena loyalists as possible elected through the district lists is not going too well as recounted above. The only recourse available to Sirisena may be to appoint as many of his loyalists as possible through the national list to extend support to the UNP led government. Of the 29 national list seats in parliament, the party that obtains the highest number of seats will get about 13 seats – the rest being distributed among other political parties. Some of the national list seats that the UPFA gets will have to be distributed among the various political parties that make up the UPFA – especially when the party leaders are on the national list. Professor Tissa Vitarana of the LSSP and D.E.W.Gunasekera of the CPSL are cases in point. If Sirisena rides roughshod over all other political parties he may be able to get up to ten of his loyalists (and others willing to play along) appointed as MPs on the national list. This is the only part of the game plan that still has a chance of working.

But whether this game plan will work or not depends on what the election result is. If the UPFA fails to get the highest number of seats in parliament, President Sirisena’s hand may be strengthened as a demoralized party agrees to anything so as to be able to enjoy a share of the power. The emphasis here is on the word ‘may’ because the reaction within the SLFP may be exactly the opposite with party members blaming Sirisena for the defeat due to his assertion that the UPFA will lose which he made as the party leader. If the UPFA does get the highest number of seats, all these game plans will come a cropper.

What the yahapalanas did right

There is very little that can be described as a success of the yahapalana government. The reduction in the prices of fuel, gas and electricity and the increases in the salaries of government servants cannot be described as successes because we all know that this was done by foregoing government revenue while increasing expenditure to an irresponsible level thus throwing government finances into complete disarray. That in fact is a ticking time bomb which the UNP has no way of preventing from exploding in their faces if they remain in power after this election. So there is nothing really that we can call a proper achievement of the yahapalana government except for one – the mad monks who were such a prominent feature of the political landscape during the Rajapaksa regime are off the streets. Even the Bodu Bala Sena has become law abiding.

Last week, the bête noir of the BBS, Watareka Wijitha Thera said something much more outrageous than anything he had said earlier. He said that the national flag should not only be spat upon but burned. If he had said something like that eight months ago, his temple would have been surrounded by furious monks. But today, the Bodu Bala Sena reacts to this by making a complaint to the police station like law abiding citizens. There is no more talk of being an ‘unofficial police force’ and going on ‘raids’ to punish those who fail to toe the line. Even the demonstration that the BBS held in front of the offices of the Sirasa TV channel last week was a very tame affair with the protestors standing quietly on the pavement with a recording of pirith in the background. Had this been the usual pattern of street action by the BBS, nobody would have any reason to oppose them.

The moment the government changed, there was a sudden decrease in the level of activity of these extremist groups. If these were genuinely patriotic organizations, their activity should really have increased because all those claiming to be patriots believe that national security and even our sovereignty has been compromised by the new government. All the mad monks who were running amok on the streets when there was no danger to our national security or sovereignty have now suddenly gone quiet which shows who their real master was. As A.L.M.Hisbulla told this writer it may be the case that these groups were formed up by the Western powers to destabilize the Rajapaksa government and since that aim has been achieved, the sponsors of these groups no longer have any use for them.

Be that as it may, the economy may be going down the drainpipe every day but the deterioration in the Buddhist dispensation has been halted. Besides, the Western powers would not want the yahapalana government destabilized so the mad monks have suddenly regained their sanity and have become law abiding citizens. The unofficial police forces have been disbanded, business houses are not being surrounded and stoned and the law and order situation has improved. The BBS worked to turn the Muslim vote against Mahinda Rajapaksa and now by fielding a separate list at this election, they are trying to reduce the vote that the MR camp gets from the Sinhalese. The SLFP has historically been incapable of controlling Buddhist monks. The SLFP has traditionally needed to be rescued from violent Buddhist monks and this most recent example shows that very little has changed in more than half a century

Courtesy:Sunday Island