Can Ranil Wickremesinghe or Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015 do as well as Ranasinghe Premadasa in the Elections of 1989?

by Prasad Gunewardene

The United National Party (UNP) and the United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) are now in the fray to contest the 17 August general elections. Both parties boast of obtaining the majority seats in the new Parliament. Either party should get 113 seats in the House to prove they are in majority to hold a strong government. This is a difficult task under the proportionate representation (PR) system for both parties at a time the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) has emerged stronger than before in parliamentary politics. Late President J.R. Jayewardene introduced the PR with the 1978 Constitution, but he did not lead an election under that system.

Instead he held a referendum in December 1982 to extend the life of his Parliament for a further term to retain the five sixth majority he secured in 1977. JR knew that had he called a general election, the UNP would not secure a majority in the House under the PR system as his popularity was on the decline after five years in office. Hence, he rushed for an early presidential election in October 1982 dividing the SLFP of Ms. Bandaranaike who had lost her civic rights. He managed to get SLFP Deputy Leader Maithripala Senanayake and Anura Bandaranaike on his election platform to support him. JR was a master in divide and rule politics.

Having retired from the Presidency, JR dissolved Parliament much against the wishes of his deputy Ranasinghe Premadasa who wanted to retain the five sixth majority for some time to get certain Bills passed. Premadasa called on JR at the latter’s residence and requested JR not to dissolve Parliament. JR who said, ‘I will look into your request’ dissolved Parliament the same night for reasons better known to him. President Premadasa looked a dejected man on hearing the news that Parliament had been dissolved. It is no secret that JR did it to prevent Premadasa from having a clear majority in the House.

Premadasa put the UNP to face a general election in 1989, the first ever under the PR system. The SLFP had then emerged stronger with Ms.Bandaranaike in the fray with her civic rights restored. The country went to polls amidst ‘two wars’; one in the North by the LTTE and the other in the South by the JVP. Premadasa had to lead the toughest ever elections after independence with JR having given him a torch burning from both sides. The JVP was assassinating UNP candidates. The southern part of the country was on fire. UNP candidates were being attacked and shocked and it looked that the UNP losing control in that region. Premadasa convinced film doyen Gamini Fonseka to contest from the UNP and requested him to lead the party in the Matara District. Gamini accepted the offer bravely as Premadasa was his trusted friend. The UNP won the Matara District with a majority and Gamini was made the Deputy Speaker.

In an election that was overshadowed by JVP violence in many parts of the country and JVP cadres taking national identity cards of voters by force, Premadasa led his UNP to victory creating a record securing 125 seats in that Parliament. The PR system also helped the SLFP to secure over sixty five seats from a meager eight seats they got in 1977 under the first-past-the-post system. When the results were announced, Premadasa was jubilant as he had managed the required majority to run a UNP Government though no party could obtain two thirds under PR system. On 17 August, both Ranil Wickremesinghe and Mahinda Rajapaksa are contesting under respective alliances. Both symbols; Betel Leaf and the Elephant are popular among the voters. Rajapaksa vies to form the next government under his premiership. This is the first time that a former President has entered the general election fray.

Wickremesinghe has entered the contest as a three times Prime Minister who was defeated at two presidential elections. He is the incumbent Premier and goes to poll with the government under his control. President Sirisena plays an apolitical role as the Head of State. A peaceful atmosphere prevails in the country with a few isolated election related violence being reported. The Elections Commissioner has come tough on election law violators. A free and fair poll looks possible. Impersonation and rigging must be blocked. The Polls Chief should leave no room to print duplicate polling cards as witnessed in previous elections. No ballot papers cast by voters should left at polling booths as it happened in the past.

Wickremesinghe and Rajapaksa are contesting a sharp battle this time. The belief is that neither party could obtain a two thirds majority under the present PR system. Perhaps, this could be last general election under the PR system introduced by JR which gave precedence to the party over the candidate. Introducing the system JR once cracked in Sinhala, “Thamunnansela, issella aliyawa hoyala passé minihawa thoraganna mokada pakshaya thamai minihata wadiya wadagath”(First find the elephant and then the man because the party is important than the man). Even if neither party gets a two thirds majority, the question is whether Mahinda or Ranil could break the record of Ranasinghe Premadasa, established 25 years ago in 1989 under the PR system.

Courtesy:Ceylon Today