By
N. Sathiya Moorthy
Sri Lankan President Maithripala Sirisena has made the nation and the international community and observers interested in the nation’s affairs, to sit up and take notice. After maintaining a seemingly ambivalent position on the political re-entry of predecessor Mahinda Rajapaksa in the January 8 polls, he has now come out strongly against the latter, who had scored a highly respectable 48 per cent vote-share at the time. This can also be the source of controversies after the August 17 parliamentary polls.
In a recent public statement, President Sirisena not only declared that he would uphold the mandate (for change and good governance) that his election portrayed, but would also not invite Rajapaksa to become prime minister if their Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)-United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), now under the latter’s hold, won a majority in parliament. More importantly, he has distanced himself from the parliamentary polls, a very healthy precedent, whatever the reason – worthy of being followed up with a legislation to the effect.
Playing cards close to chest
Confused or more clear-headed than others, six months into office, President Sirisena is playing his cards close to his heart. Before his no-no to a Rajapaksa return, his praise for another former president, Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga (CBK), while holding on to the near-simultaneous truce with collective bête noire Rajapaksa over SLFP-UPFA nominations for the August 17 polls, made him enigmatic. Though he might have not opposed Rajapaksa’s return, his post-poll steps in particular needs to be watched, as Sirisena also seems to be suffering from a moral dilemma over allowing political rival United National Party (UNP) to return to power.
President Sirisena seems to be aware of his electoral limitations. He is also not unaware of the political possibilities. He seems wanting to mix his political acumen with electoral possibilities and without ignoring the presidential poll mandate. His constant reference not to reverse that mandate and not allow ‘family rule’ may need to be understood as standing as a bulwark between the past and the present, but not excluding the present. How far he succeeds could indicate in these troubled times of post-war transition and readjustments, Sri Lanka’s success as a nation. The inherent strengths and weaknesses of the nation-State remain, as during the past decades of ethnic issue and LTTE terrorism, the social divisions and the forgotten JVP insurgencies
With close to 50 long years in politics, President Sirisena is not unaware of the possibilities. Until proved otherwise, Rajapaksa is still backed by claims to polling 48 per cent of the popular vote in the presidential polls, but much of it from the majority Sinhala-Buddhist community. Despite Sirisena being named party and alliance chief, both organizations from top to bottom are almost at the disposal of Rajapaksa.
When a Sirisena spokesman says that the president would not nominate Rajapaksa for the parliamentary polls, the other side says that it’s for the SLFP central committee and not the party boss to clear the poll ticket. The media flags doubts about the veracity and credibility of UPFA General Secretary Susil Premajayantha’s written communication about poll nomination for Rajapaksa, but the Sirisena camp is silent at best.
The Rajapaksa camp seeks prime ministerial nomination for their leader, if only to ensure that his votes from the presidential polls get transferred to the SLFP-UPFA combine in the parliamentary elections. Others in Team Rajapaksa also seem uncomfortable about the possibilities available to President Sirisena, post-poll.
Sirisena may not have votes, he still has options, post-poll. He would have a choice or more, if the Rajapaksa camp is unable to steer a parliamentary majority, one way or the other.
UNHRC tangle
Even without the pre-poll campaign and post-poll possibilities, all of which are going to keep him busy, President Sirisena would also have to keep himself updated about the upcoming developments pertaining to the UN Human Rights Council September session. Unsure of who will form the government, and who will be the prime minister and also the foreign minister, and how much time they would be taking to settle down, if there were to be dark horses in those seats, it’s for the president to lead his foreign policy team, but from behind, through the current interregnum.
In doing so, President Sirisena would have to look at the possibilities and options at UNHRC in a way that the foreign policy team does not end up sending out wrong or confusing signals. Nor can they remain idle and stagnant. Status quo may not be an option. Beyond episodic symbolism nearer home, nothing much has moved under what came to be seen as an ‘UNP government’ of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, but with President Sirisena still at the helm.
Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and his Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera need to be given credit for obtaining a six-month reprieve on the UNHRC tabling the fast-tracked probe report into ‘accountability issues’ pertaining to Sri Lanka. Even if they were to return to power, there is little that they could do at Geneva just now. If Rajapaksa returned, this time as prime minister, all hell would break loose on all fronts.
If there is a ‘dark-horse’ in the saddle – and it cannot be ruled out entirely – then, the leadership would require all the time and energy to settle down, and also study the issues. The Tamils, egged on by the Diaspora and ‘inspired’ by the upcoming election mood and inevitable internal divisions of whatever kind, can be expected to keep the pot boiling.
It should not surprise anyone if the diaspora were to slip in President Sirisena’s name for being the ‘Acting Defence Minister’ during the controversial end-days of the ethnic war. It could embarrass, though not necessarily divide, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), particularly the parliamentary group, with its substantial numbers, at alliance and government-formation.
Status quo on China?
It’s in this background, too, that the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe approach to China, for instance, needs to be viewed. It’s not about ‘Colombo Port City’ project, or the Maritime Silk Route, or specific instances of accommodation of China on the military front, all of which have had irritated the Indian neighbor and the international community (read: West) under the predecessor Rajapaksa regime.
Other than a workable ‘national consensus’ on security and developmental issues over the past decade, if not more, ‘non-interfering’ (?) Chinese support in international fora has been a source of silent strength for successive governments in Sri Lanka over the decades. President Sirisena, both as elected President, and the interregnum-leader just now, needs to maintain a balance.
In the interim, China might still maintain the status quo all-round, until a new government takes over and a new prime minister appears on the Sri Lankan scene. For his part, President Sirisena too could be expected to do so, unless of course events and developments elsewhere to force the Sri Lankan State to take a public position, too that when the poll campaign heats up nearer home.
Job cut out
President Sirisena has his job cut out. The large Rajapaksa constituency may not seem his as a ‘strong leader’, at least not yet, as was the case with all his predecessors. But his presidential poll backers seem divided over his capabilities, but not yet about his intentions. That is his current strength – here is a man who wants to do things differently, and do things as he had promised, but does not have the political backing from any side of the ‘national government’ that he supposedly headed through the first six, turbulent months of his presidency.
President Sirisena might be the wrong man at the right place and at the wrong time, which too needs to be righted. His ultimate success or failure in the blind-game that he has chosen to play dispassionate ‘seconds’ to guide him from the sidelines could prove costly, not just for the man but also for the nation, though only after a time.
To Sirisena’s credit goes his continuing reputation as an ‘unknown’ entity even six months after becoming president. In his time, prime minister Ranasinghe Premadasa, lost no opportunity to run down his president, J. R. Jayewardene, and thus made his ambitions clear. Given his circumstances, Sirisena knew to keep his secrets until it was time to announce his candidacy for the presidency.
He who knows to keep his secrets needs to be watched, and watched closely, if ever someone wants to match him in the department, and more! Tools of popularity, intellect and secrecy all can cut in very many ways. Sri Lanka can thus be in for a time of political upmanship taking more time than required, to the detriment of the nation moving on in the development path and also finding a negotiated settlement to the ethnic issue – and more.
(N. Sathiya Moorthy is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation)