By
C.A.Chandraprema
Events are moving faster than they can be written about. If we start with the last big event that occurred towards the end of last week, the Ratnapura meeting of the pro-Mahinda group of the SLFP was marred by a heavy downpour that started just minutes after the meeting commenced. Despite the pelting rain and the sheets of water cascading down the streets of the Ratnapura town, the crowd was at least the same as at the Kandy meeting or even a little bigger.
The venue allocated was not the biggest playground in Ratnapura town but a small ground about the size of Hyde Park on the side of the Sivali playground. The result of this was that the crowd spilled over into a large petrol shed on about half of acre of land next to the venue and the establishment simply shut down their pumps and closed for business after the crowd took over their premises.
The rain abated after about an hour and the main road in front of the venue was blocked completely and a part of the crowd spilled into the police station compound across the road. A long segment of the steel fence of the police station collapsed as the crowd climbed over it to enter the premises.
People were expecting the Ratnapura meeting to be even bigger than the Nugegoda meeting but the heavy squall put a dampener on all that. This writer met a drenched and disappointed looking rally organizer near the Ratnapura police station and suggested that in order to prevent the political purpose from being defeated by the vagaries of the weather, they should ask all those who come for future meetings to bring umbrellas!
Attendance was certainly affected by the heavy squall, but this was a failure that would have made both the UNP and the SLFP go green with envy. For any other party a downpour like what was experienced during the Ratnapura meeting would have brought the proceedings to an end but not this rally.
However the surprise in Ratnapura was not so much the crowd present despite the heavy rain, but the number of parliamentarian who joined the meeting. A list of 25 MPs who were present on the stage has already been released to the press and need not be repeated here. Wimal Weerawansa stated at the meeting that there were 28 parliamentarians present. The present writer was at the meeting, but it was not possible to see who was on the stage. There were hundreds of local government representatives, PC members and of course parliamentarians on the stage – many of them standing. The Ratnapura meeting may not have set a record in terms of the number present at the rally, but it certainly set a record as to the number of people that can be accommodated on a stage. At one point, Wimal Weerawansa was pleading with the elected representatives not to come onto the stage because it could collapse at any moment.
The presence of 25-28 SLFP parliamentarians on the pro-Mahinda stage would have come as a rude shock for President Maithripala Sirisena, Chandrika Kumaratunga and Nimal Siripala de Silva who are now the powers that be in the SLFP. This is the biggest mass defection of parliamentarians from the SLFP or indeed from any political party in this country. It was on Sunday last week that 26 SLFP parliamentarians were sworn in as ministers, state ministers and deputy ministers in the government. By Thursday, an equal if not greater number had joined the pro-Mahinda bandwagon. In a way, the surprise would have been if this had not happened. When 26 individuals out of about 126 are given portfolios which they will hold until the next election is called, that places the other 100 at a serious disadvantage – especially those who had held ministerial portfolios earlier, but had not been given anything in this round. So it is natural that some of those left out would try to compensate by joining the pro-Mahinda faction which is now dominating the grassroots level in the SLFP. If those who have got ministerial portfolios will be able to win people over by doling out patronage, their left out colleagues will be able to seek an advantage by siding with Mahinda.
If anyone expected the SLFP’s grass roots level enthusiasm to have Mahinda Rajapaksa back abate with the induction of a large number of SLFP parliamentarians into the national government, that did not happen. The day after the national government was formed, Rajapaksa had a meeting with SLFP local government members from the Anuradhapura and Kurunegala districts at the Abeyarama Temple and it was as well attended as the previous meetings and the local government reps were just as aggressively enthusiastic about bringing MR back as the prime ministerial candidate with one LG representative yelling that they wanted a leader, not a puppet. Their concern was not so much about who gets a portfolio for a few months but what happens when the next parliamentary election comes along sooner or later.
SLFP as junior partner
What has really taken place in the SLFP is a split in all but name. At least on the face of it, this arrangement appears to be what Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was always aiming at. He spoke of forming a ‘national government’ after the next election by which he obviously meant a government dominated by the UNP and with the SLFP as a junior partner. The arrangement that is in place now is certainly that.
At the much spoken of seminar for SLFP parliamentarians that was held some weeks ago in Katunayake, there was an attempt to get the SLFP parliamentarians present to agree to a national government. One resource person who gave a lecture there had showed with statistical models that the SLFP would be defeated at the next parliamentary election. The argument being put forward appeared to be that since the SLFP was facing defeat at the next parliamentary election, it would be better to wield power at least partially in a national government rather than ending up with nothing. At this two day seminar, individual MPs who were agreeable to such an arrangement were strategically placed at every table in order to persuade the more sceptical colleagues to buy the idea. Among those who were sworn in as ministers last Sunday were some of the MPs who were involved in this operation. With the formation of the national government, the SLFP appears to have resigned themselves to playing second fiddle to the UNP. If we look at the way the subjects have been distributed, the SLFP is definitely the junior partner.
The national government was formed in the context of the internal power struggle between the Mahinda faction and what can now be called the Chandrika-Maithri group. One of the reasons for giving portfolios to 26 SLFP parliamentarians was to strengthen the CBK-Maithri group. Had the SLFP been left out of the government, there was the danger that it could have slipped completely into the hands of the Mahinda camp because of the support the deposed party leader still enjoys among SLFP local government representatives and the ordinary SLFP voter. If at least a few MPs were taken into the government, the Maithri-CBK camp will be left with at least a rump without losing everything. The formation of this national government is an admission by the powers that be in the SLFP that they are unable to control the Mahinda wave among SLFP/UPFA voters and grassroots level activists.
There was a plan earlier, especially by the JHU types to marginalize the UNP and to use Maithripala Sirisena’s power as the SLFP chairman to run a government on their own without the UNP. These plans appear to have come a cropper with the mood in the SLFP grassroots shifting decisively in favour of Mahinda. It was just last week that we pointed out the contrast between the indifferent manner in which SLFP electoral organizers received Maithripala’s address, and the way the SLFP local government representatives were reacting to Mahinda. CBK, Maithri and the others appear to have decided that rather than try to fight a losing battle to bend a recalcitrant SLFP to their will, it would be better to salvage what they can from the SLFP and hitch their wagon firmly to the UNP. In a way this represents a return to the real yahapalana platform of the pre-election days. At that time the UNP was clearly the senior partner in the coalition with some members of the SLFP as junior partners.
Even though the JHU was trying to take Maithripala Sirisena on the adventurist path of kicking the UNP out and holding on to power through the captive SLFP, this plan came a cropper due to the widespread support that Mahinda still enjoys among the SLFP rank and file. It became obvious that if Maithripala and CBK antagonizes the UNP at the behest of a few power hungry adventurers who have no vote base, they stand to lose both the UNP and the SLFP and in effect fall in between two stools. Besides, if Maithripala broke his pledge to the UNP that would have done him irreparable harm and got him branded as a serial betrayer. Besides, dumping the UNP and trying to make do with a reluctant SLFP was not designed to benefit either Maithripala or CBK, but some other (mostly vote-less) politicians who had gravitated around Maithripala and were now trying to use the president’s power for their own aggrandizement with scant regard for Maithripala’s own interests.
The last minute turn around
Saner counsel now appears to have prevailed, and what now appears to have taken shape is a UNP-CBK-Maithri alliance with an SLFP rump being CBK’s and Maithri’s contribution to the alliance. This is certainly good news for the country. As this writer has been saying all along, if the Rajapaksas are not going to be in the driving seat, it is the UNP that should be sitting there. The ultimate nightmare would have been to have a meek and pliable SLFP government dominated and steered by Champika Ranawaka. That in fact was what was on the cards and it was prevented only by the immense popularity of Mahinda Rajapaksa within the SLFP – which prevented the SLFP from being manipulated according to the wishes of those who had worked to oust Rajapaksa. People like CBK appear to have realized that if they went any further on this path of pushing out the UNP and trying to make do with the SLFP, they could end up not having either. The week before last, Maithripala Sirisena and the UNP appeared to be on a collision course with prominent members of the UNP voicing discontent over the possibility of being short changed by Maithripala. But in the 72 hours before the national government was formed, the president and prime minister were seen together at various public events and then came the sudden announcement that the two parties would get together in a national government.
The national government was formed last Sunday, and on Tuesday, the 19th Amendment Bill was tabled in parliament. That same afternoon lankaenews, the pro-UNP website announced ecstatically that the 19th Amendment Bill had been presented to parliament with certain amendments that would result in the complete abolition of the executive presidency. The 19th Amendment bill that was gazetted however did not really abolish the executive presidency or even prune its powers significantly. The president would have continued to be directly elected by the people and remain the head of the State, the Executive and of the Government. So the executive presidential system remained virtually intact according to the gazetted 19th Amendment bill.
The only reason why the UNP would have agreed to the gazetted 19th amendment Bill is that despite the retention of the executive presidential system, the Prime Minister will be the head of the cabinet and would appoint the cabinet and assign subjects to the ministers. The gazetted 19th Amendment bill shows how helpless the UNP was at the hands of the JHU and their ilk who were the only group in the yahapalana camp opposed to the abolition of the executive presidency. But after the national government was formed, this resistance appears to have been overcome.
The compromise arrived at was to remove the designation of ‘head of the government’ from the president and to remain silent on who the head of the government was going to be. That way, the prime minister who would be the head of the cabinet would be able to be the head of the government. Furthermore, it was also decided that for the duration of President Sirisena’s term of office he would be the head of the cabinet but after the end of his term in office, the president would cease to preside over cabinet. Furthermore, the president would act on the advice given by the prime minister. If the president is not satisfied with the advice given to him by the cabinet, the final arbiter would be the parliament. Such an arrangement certainly does give more power to the prime minister. What has still not yet been worked out is whether the president is going to be elected directly by the people or by parliament. If the powers are going to centre on the prime minister, then there will be no point in electing the president directly.
A singular victory for the UNP
There is no doubt that this is a massive step forward for the UNP. It appears that work is also proceeding apace on the electoral reforms so as to be able to bring that forward too as a constitutional amendment. That the UNP managed to get the assent of the SLFP hierarchy to increase the power of the prime minister and the cabinet is a singular victory but at the same time, there is a danger in effecting such a change without a simultaneous change in the electoral system which would enable a victorious party to obtain a working majority in parliament. This was also a concern expressed by many in the SLFP and in society in general. Though many in the UNP feel that a system based on a first past the post system would be unfavourable to the UNP, the fact is that when any party is on a winning streak, it wins the majority of the electorates in the country.
If we look at the electoral map of the 2001 parliamentary election which the UNP won, they swept the board as far as the individual electorates were concerned even winning electorates like Akuressa which have always been left oriented. So this fear that the UNP has of the first past the post system is largely unfounded. Be that as it may, things appear to be moving on the electoral change front as well to allay the fear that many people have of reducing the powers of the presidency without a simultaneous change in the electoral system.
But having said all that, the still unanswered question is how the internal situation in the SLFP is going to affect these plans to bring in constitutional reforms. As of now, all plans are predicated on the SLFP being able to deliver a critical mass of votes which together with the votes of the UNP, will see the constitutional reforms through. But which way is the cookie crumbling in the SLFP?
Already, 28 SLFP parliamentarians have openly identified with Mahinda Rajapaksa’s cause by joining the Ratnapura meeting. From day one this movement to bring MR back into politics has been gathering momentum and expanding. Furthermore, over 50 SLFP parliamentarians are apparently in favour of Dinesh Gunawardene being appointed as the opposition leader. What will happen to the constitutional changes if the bulk of the SLFP parliamentarians sides with the MR camp? The MR camp too may have to be roped into the constitutional change project to get the reforms passed.
Because of the turbulence in the SLFP, the whole political system has been plunged into uncertainty. What for example is to happen to the April 23 date to dissolve parliament? As far as the UNP is concerned, they still want parliament to be dissolved on that date, which is unsurprising because the need for fresh elections comes not so much from political but economic causes.
RW is now the prime minister and many of his party colleagues are ministers. One would think that since the UNP managed to get into power after a lapse of nearly one and a half decades, the UNP would like to sit back and relax a little and hold these ministerial positions a little longer, consolidate themselves and then go for a general election next year. However they cannot take such a relaxed approach because the economic situation in the country is not going to improve in the coming months but grow worse significantly. The UNP was being wise in wanting an early election so that they can reap the benefit of the price reductions and the various concessions that were given to the people before things start going in the opposite direction. Any delay beyond what is strictly necessary is fraught with danger. If for instance the government is forced at some point to increase the prices of fuel, that will wipe out any political capital they may have earned among the consumers.
Furthermore, there are certain other economic fundamentals that change automatically in the normal course of economic activity such as for example the interest rate. The new government has been borrowing heavily in the local market and the more they borrow, the higher the interest rate goes. When the interest rate goes up, all those who have taken housing loans, and leases on motorcycles, trishaws and farm equipment etcetera will have to pay higher interest on their loans. If the economic fallout begins to manifest itself in this manner all the credit that the new government won in the wake of the price reductions will evaporate. So the sooner the UNP goes for an election the better. The problem however is that even though the UNP may realize the need to go in for elections and to have fresh people’s mandate to change course and avert an economic disaster, there are others in the coalition who are too concerned with their own day to day survival to be worried about any looming economic crisis. In any case it’s only ‘looming’ and still not upon us!
There are some like Champika Ranawaka who have no idea where they are going to contest from at the next election. If they contest the next election through the UPFA or the SLFP they face the distinct possibility of being deliberately defeated by the voter. They can win if they contest on the UNP ticket, but then they will have to play second fiddle to the UNP leader – a prospect they would not relish. So there are elements in the government that would like to see that the elections are pushed back as far as possible so that they have some breathing space to gather their wits about them and figure out a way to get out of the political trap they find themselves in. But this group may not be able to have their way because the UNP appears just as adamant that parliament should be dissolved by the end of April. Last week, after the formation of the national government, Ravi Karunanayake and Ranil Wickremesinghe reiterated the need to dissolve parliament next month. Indeed, other than the economic imperative that we mentioned earlier, there now is a political reason to hold an early parliamentary election – to capitalize on the split in the SLFP.
Courtesy:Sunday Island