By

Rasika Jayakody

On the sidelines of the Central Committee meeting of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party last week, a senior Parliamentarian of the party quipped that former President Rajapaksa was voraciously reading the biography of Russian President Vladimir Putin these days!

Putin, who plays a pivotal role in the political sphere of Russia, became the country’s Prime Minister in 1999. Known as a Yeltsin loyalist back then many thought Putin would not last long at the helm of Russia’s politics for more than a few years.

The former KGB stalwart somehow consolidated his power-base and ascended to Presidency in 2000. Amidst severe challenges, he retained his popularity and ran for a second term – which was allowed by the constitution of Russia. On 14 March 2004, Putin was elected to the presidency for a second term, receiving 71% of the vote. By this time, he positioned himself to be an all-powerful, larger-than-life figure in Russian politics, who often pandered to anti-West sentiments.

Putin was barred from a third term by the Russian Constitution. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who served under Putin was elected his successor. In a power-switching operation on 8 May 2008, only a day after handing the presidency to Medvedev, Putin was appointed the Prime Minister of Russia, maintaining his political dominance in the country. Although Medvedev was the President, some said, Putin operated as the de facto head of state of the country, at times overlooking and at times undercutting the duly appointed President of Russia.

Circumventing the constitutional barrier, on March 04, 2012, Putin won the Russian presidential elections in the first round, with 63.6% of the vote. While efforts to make the elections transparent were publicized, including the usage of webcams in polling stations, the vote was criticized by the Russian opposition and by international observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe for procedural irregularities.

However, the Russian leader utilized his second term as the Prime Minister to make way for a third term Presidency in the face of resistance from various parties.

Former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who was sent out of office by the people on January 08, is now eyeing for a second term as the Prime Minister of the country in a desperate bid to become the Head of State, once again. He is backed by a cohort of minor political parties who are stakeholders of the United People’s Freedom Alliance. They are of the firm belief that the former President is able to make a Putin-like return to power, by contesting as the Prime Ministerial Candidate of the UPFA at the forthcoming Parliamentary election.

Probably Mahinda Rajapaksa too is under the assumption that he still has time and space to be another Putin, who was a close ally of Sri Lanka when Rajapaksa was in power.

However, there is one striking difference between the case of Rajapaksa and Putin. Putin, unlike Rajapaksa, never lost an election when he was at the helm of power. He had to become the Prime Minister of the country as the constitution of Russia prevented him from becoming the President for the third consecutive term. He only reverted to the Prime Ministerial position to circumvent the constitutional barrier.

Lessons un-learnt from Putin

In Rajapaksa’s case, he challenged the existing constitution of the country by introducing the 18th Amendment which was introduced to ensure his perpetuation in office. To get the 18th Amendment passed in Parliament, he lured opposition Parliamentarians into the ruling camp by offering them perks, privileges and ministerial portfolios. Ministries were designed, redesigned, dismantled and assembled to accommodate opposition MPs with the aim of creating an “artificial” two thirds majority in the House- which was never endorsed by the electorate of Sri Lanka. In this arbitrary process, all the democratic institutions of the country were emasculated by the Rajapaksa regime at the sole discretion of the top echelons of the previous government.

Freedom of media, human rights, independence of the judiciary and free functioning of the law enforcement mechanisms were suppressed to make way for bulldozing tactics of the regime. There was a deep sense of frustration, not only among the general public of the country but also among the members of the ruling camp over the state of affairs in the government. The culmination of this gradual process was Maithripala Sirisena’s defection from the previous government and his bold decision to challenge the Rajapaksas as the Common Candidate of the opposition. Riding the crest of this anti-Rajapaksa wave, Maithripala Sirisena became the President of the country, on January 08, with over 6.2 million votes.

SLFP’s reluctance to accommodate Mahinda

Soon after Maithripala Sirisena’s ascension to presidency, former President Rajapaksa was compelled to relinquish his position as the Chairman as the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. He was forced to take a backseat as a “Patron” of the party, with Nimal Siripala de Silva being appointed as the Leader of the Opposition.

The most nimble-minded person in the Rajapaksa family, former Economic Development Minister Basil Rajapaksa, who was also the chief strategist of the Rajapaksa camp, left for the US and stepped down from his position as the National Organizer of the SLFP, accepting responsibility of the election defeat. Seniors of the SLFP, willingly or otherwise, aligned themselves with President Maithripala Sirisena and those who defected with him from the party were re-absorbed into the party with senior positions. Weeks after the presidential election, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, which was at point considered as a fiefdom of the Rajapaksas, took a 180 degree turn, with the Rajapaksas being pushed towards the peripheries.

It is against this backdrop that Wimal Weerawansa, Dinesh Gunawardena, Vasudewa Nanayakkara and Udaya Gammanpila are attempting to resurrect the Rajapaksa image by positioning him as the potential Prime Ministerial Candidate of the United People’s Freedom Alliance which also includes the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. They launched this campaign with so much vigour when they organized a political rally in Nugegoda which was attended by tens of thousands of people with several MPs of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party.

At the Nugegoda rally, Wimal Weerawansa, who is the main “speaker” of the pro-Rajapaksa camp, said they were ready to traverse the country with their supporters to show the Sri Lanka Freedom Party that “Mahinda” was still a viable option. As part of this programme, they organized their second rally in the historic city of Kandy where Mahinda Rajapaksa met with some electoral resistance at the last presidential election.

It was at the “Kandy rally” that the organizers realized the actual potential of Rajapaksa as the Prime Ministerial Candidate of the opposition.

“Bring Back Mahinda” campaign hits a snag

The “Bring Back Mahinda” campaign hit an unexpected snag in Kandy with the rally drawing a relatively low crowd support, especially when compared to the rally held at Nugegoda towards the end of February. The organizers of the rally, despite Kandy being a traditional UNP district, believed that the rally would draw a fairly large crowd support as “Mahinda”, according to them, was still a marketable political concept. Adding to their misery, only one Parliamentarian of the SLFP (Dilum Amunugama) attended the rally, along with a group of Provincial Council and Pradeshiya Sabha members of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. Among them was Western Provincial Councillor Samanmalee Sakalasooriya who ran into trouble when she tried to define the idea of “nudity” at a press conference before the last presidential election.

The majority of SLFP MPs, who attended the Nugegoda rally freely without any restriction from the party, distanced themselves from the entire process when the Central Committee of the SLFP barred its members from taking part in political meeting organized by other political parties. Only Dilum Amunugama, who was a staunch follower of Parliamentarian Namal Rajapaksa at one point, had the gumption to defy the Central Committee decision.

Prasanna Ranatunga, who attended the Nugegoda rally amidst much media fanfare, suddenly left for Australia after he realized that the SLFP had imposed a ban on its members. Speaking to his close associates, Ranatunga said he was compelled to visit Australia for a brief period to obtain medical treatment. But, it was crystal clear that the Chief Minister of the Western Province, who was positioning himself as a heroic figure among die-hard MR supporters, had decided to take a step back to protect his “membership card” of the party.

Even Kumara Welgama, who vehemently opposed the idea of forming a national government at the Central Committee meeting of the party last Thursday, was careful enough to distance himself from the Kandy rally which was held in support of Rajapaksa. It crystallized the fact that even the SLFP Parliamentarians, who expressed support to the former President initially, did not want to walk the extra mile to make him the Prime Minister of the country. The Central Committee of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, by issuing a single statement, dismantled the pro-MR apparatus within the party, giving a hefty blow to the parties who were campaigning for the Rajapaksas.

Interestingly, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa too has decided to stay away from the campaign that has been launched to support his Prime Ministerial candidature. The organizers of the rally publicly claimed those who wanted Rajapaksa as the next Prime Minister of the country would extend their support to this campaign which is characterized with fiery Sihala-Buddhist supremacist rhetoric. By deciding not to take part in the rallies, the former President demonstrated that he too did not want to become the next Prime Minister of the country, despite boastful claims made by the likes of Wimal Weerawansa and Udaya Gammanpila.

“By not aligning himself physically with the pro-Mahinda campaign, the former President shows that he is still indecisive on his political future. Whatever said and done, he is determined to protect his SLFP membership. On one hand, it shows that he prefers to be the Prime Ministerial Candidate of the SLFP rather than being the PM Candidate of a non-SLFP alliance that does not have a party machinery. On the other hand, it also suggests that he is worried about the ‘political future’ of his son, more than anything, Namal Rajapaksa, if he wishes to remain in active politics, cannot think of a future outside the Sri Lanka Freedom Party,” a senior Parliamentarian of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, who considers himself to be a “moderate”, told the Daily News on Monday.

Will CBK take over “re-organization” of SLFP?

At this point, former President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga who is officially a “Patron” of the SLFP, is in the process of expanding her powers, slowly but surely. The former President sent a letter to the last Central Committee meeting of the party, seeking more powers to engage with political activities of the SLFP. As per her request, the Central Committee is now exploring the possibility of entrusting her with the task of heading “re-organization and re-construction programme” of the party. As a result of this development, it is crystal clear that MR loyalists, who are still the members of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party, will have a tough time in the future, especially ahead of a crucial Parliamentary election.

Former President Kumaratunga has already stated that she will not allow any corrupt individual to obtain nomination under the SLFP ticket at the forthcoming Parliamentary election. Irrespective of the practical aspect of this statement, what the former President is suggesting that she wants to go hard on those who were involved in “corrupt deals” under the watch of the leaders of the previous government. This is a clear indication that some hardcore supporters of the Rajapaksa, will not receive nomination to contest the Parliamentary election under the SLFP ticket.

In the face of such a development, they will be left with two options. That is either to step down from active politics or to extend their support to the pro-Rajapaksa movement which has already been launched by Weerawansa and his group. Either way, this will create division among the rank and file of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party.

One should also come to terms with the fact that the top rung leadership of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party is vehemently against the idea of Rajapaksa’s re-entry into politics. When the Rajapaksas were at the helm, the entire party machinery was dominated by the “family” with little or no upward mobility for others where the party hierarchy was concerned. With the Rajapaksas out of the equation, they now see the “opportunities” lying in front of them. For instance, after Nimal Siripala de Silva, there is an opportunity for the likes of Susil Premajayantha and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa to vie for top positions of the party as well as of the government. They loathe the idea of re-imposing ‘family shackles’ on them by making Mahinda Rajapaksa the Prime Ministerial Candidate of the party.

This pressure was not felt by grassroots level representatives of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party when the Rajapaksas were in power. As far as they were concerned, they received enough money and funds for development projects at the village level and that ensured their survival, political and otherwise. Hierarchical problems in the party were beyond their radar and that was exactly why it was not a serious issue for grassroots level representatives of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. As a result of that, the former President still maintains a fairly strong support-base among village level leaders of the party such as Pradeshiya Sabha members and Provincial Councilors.

Therefore, this conflict of preferences between the top rung leadership of the party and the grassroots level representatives is creating a split in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party. If and when there is a Parliamentary election, this rift will come into play in a significant manner and that will severely affect the election machinery of the party which seemed incredibly strong 12 months ago. Even if there is no overt split in the party, a sizable proportion of hardcore MP groups will not go to vote at the next Parliamentary election as they will have no alternate choice. This is the very same plight which the United National Party underwent over the past twenty years when it was in the opposition. The present state of affairs in the Sri Lanka Freedom Party will ultimately play into the hands of the UNP whose election machinery is in full swing after a victorious Presidential election.

It is in this context that the UNP is preparing to go for a General election as early as possible. The 100 day programme of President Maithripala Sirisena stated that the Parliament would be dissolved on April 23 and an election would be held subsequently. The UNP would be more than happy to dissolve Parliament on April 23 and go for a fresh Parliamentary election with a certain edge over its political opponents. The UNP seniors openly claim that the practical aspect of electoral reforms should not hamper the dissolution of Parliament on April 23, as promised.

“In principle, we all agree that the present electoral system should be changed. Under the 100 day programme, we can pass the proposed electoral system and do way with the old PR system. However, in a practical sense, we will not be able to dissolve the Parliament on April 23, if we decide to hold the next Parliamentary election under the new system as the authorities will need more time for delimitation. The most viable option is to pass the new electoral system in Parliament and hold the next election under the old system on the promised date. That will give more time for authorities to complete delimitation and do the ground work to hold subsequent elections under the new system,” a senior Parliamentarian of the UNP told the Daily News. This was in line with the sentiments expressed by UNP General Secretary Kabir Hashim who addressed a press conference in Colombo last week.

On the other hand, the dissolution of Parliament on April 23 will put a damper on the plans of the SLFP as they want to push for a postponement of the election due to their internecine power struggles. That is exactly why the SLFP is suggesting to form a national government after the completion of the 100 day programme. But, the UNP has ruled out the possibility of forming a national government before the Parliamentary election. However, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has already made it clear that the two parties have agreed to work together, for at least two years, after the next Parliamentary election. In fact that was the agreement between Ranil Wickremesinghe and Maithripala Sirisena even before the last Presidential election.

Although parties like the JHU are strongly pushing for electoral reforms, the JVP has clearly stated that the present government has no mandate to remain in power after April 23. JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake, while demanding Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe to step down from his position on April 23, also said the JVP would boycott Parliament if the government attempted to remain in power after the 100 day programme.

One has every reason to believe that such “threats” posed by JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake are music to the ears of the UNP who also want to dissolve Parliament on April 23, seeking a fresh and a stronger mandate from the people.

Chinese woes

In addition to the exigencies on the political front, the new government also has to resolve certain issues concerning Chinese projects in Sri Lanka. Initially, it looked as if the new government had made up its mind to proceed with the Colombo Port City project which was severely criticized by environmentalists and social activities. Then, the government, last week stated that it would suspend the project until the conclusion of ongoing inquiries. This decision was announced ahead of President Maithripala Sirisena’s visit to China – a crucial visit by the Sri Lankan head of state in terms of geo-political realities faced by the island-nation.

Amidst the controversy involving the Colombo Port City project, Chinese Ambassador Yi Xianliang had emergency meetings with Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera. During the meetings, the Chinese envoy urged the Sri Lankan government to protect the bilateral agreements and business contracts with China, and to protect the interests of its investors. It was clear that the Chinese Ambassador was referring to the Colombo Port City project whose foundation stone was laid by Xi Jinping when the latter visited Sri Lanka last year. Therefore, the Chinese government was somewhat concerned about the suspension of the Colombo Port City project by the Sri Lankan government.

It has now been revealed that China is planning to send another Submarine to Sri Lanka to test the political waters. This comes in the wake of the statement made by the Foreign Minister that no Chinese submarines will visit Sri Lanka in the future. Under the Rajapaksas, Chinese submarines had access to Sri Lankan waters and it was a serious concern for the government of India as far as the national security of the country was concerned.

Against this backdrop, if a Chinese submarine visits Sri Lanka, it will create a fresh diplomatic issue that requires careful handling. If the new government runs into a diplomatic row with China, it will reflect badly on the President who is scheduled to visit China this month. On the other hand, if the government allows Chinese submarines to arrive in Sri Lanka, it will also bring the credibility of the Sri Lankan Foreign Minister into question, especially in the eyes of India. The new government of Sri Lanka, needless to say, has to walk a tightrope between India and China, without tilting the playing field towards any party while protecting the interests of Sri Lanka.

Courtesy:Daily News