By
C.A.Chandraprema
What Sri Lanka experienced last Thursday was easily the biggest political upset in post independence history. This would also be unique in the annals of world history. One would think that after an election where power changed hands, the streets all over the country would be full of rejoicing party supporters. But that was not the case.
Sri Lanka now enters upon a period of profound political and economic uncertainty and the only hand that can ensure stability in this country at this stage is UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe. The extent of stability in this country will be decided by the extent to which the UNP is in charge of things. It was a providential that Ranil Wickremesinghe took charge on Jan. 9 and addressed the public at a press conference and said all the correct things to calm the situation.
The country today and especially the government formed by the common opposition needs a steady hand and a sensible mind if they are not to be destroyed by their own victory. If the other groups in the common opposition have any sense in them, they will allow Ranil and the UNP to do the talking and to make all the important decisions. Even in December 2001, it was Ranil who brought calm and political peace to a country that had been set on fire by Chandrika Kumaratunga.
It should be said at this stage that Mahinda Rajapaksa never persecuted and harassed the opposition the way Chandrika Kumaratunga did in 1994-2001 and he carried forward the political peace that had been established by Ranil Wickremesinghe in 2001 and as such nobody in the opposition has any reason to hate Mahinda. This is not a hated or unbalanced dictator that has been toppled from power. If Mahinda was a popular leader as he undoubtedly was, why then did he fall? The first factor of course was the ganging up of the minority vote in the north and east against him and the huge majorities that gave the opposition candidate. We wrote in this column that the TNA, SLMC and ACMC cannot offer anything more than what they themselves get but surprisingly, they did! Maithripala got a total of 394,991 votes in the northern province which is significantly more than the total vote that the TNA, ACMC (Baithiudeen’s candidates on the UPFA list) and the SLMC got in the northern province at the peak of their popularity at the 2013 Northern PC election (and in Baithiudeen’s case the 2010 parliamentary election).
The same phenomenon was to be seen in the East. At the Eastern PC election of 2012 which represents a peak for the SLMC, ACMC (contesting on the UPFA list) and the TNA, these parties got a cumulative total of 383,274 votes. But at the recently concluded presidential election Sirisena got a total of 583, 140 votes which allowing for a good number of Sinhala votes is still significantly more than what the minority parties commanded even at their highest point. So this was an unexpected turn of events. The minority political parties went house to house telling people “You don’t have to vote for us, just vote against HIM!” and it worked. As for the Nuwara Eliya district, even though the CWC supported Mahinda Rajapaksa that counted for nothing as no member of the CWC was contesting the presidency and in such circumstances, the Tamil voters vote for whomever they like and therefore, the Nuwara Eliya district had to be written off just like the north and east in calculating Mahinda’s chances of getting re-elected. The Nuwara Eliya district has always voted against Mahinda.
Despite the increase of votes in the North and East and the Nuwara Eliya district for the common opposition candidate, that would still not have seen the common candidate winning if not for the significant swing in the Sinhala vote. There is always an anti-incumbency factor in politics but at this election, what was clear from the beginning was that the Rajapaksa government was flatfooted in responding to allegations of massive corruption that were made by individuals like Champika Ranawaka and also by Maithripala Sirisena. From the very beginning, they adopted a very cavalier attitude towards these allegations. They actually thought it was not necessary to counter such allegations.
They probably thought that the people would not believe the stories being circulated. Well the fact is that people do tend to believe allegations, especially if no response is forthcoming from the side of the government. Everybody in the government thought it would suffice to sing the praises of the president to see him winning a third term. Be that as it may Mahinda was defeated. The unanswered allegations of corruption created a segment of the Sinhala public that believed the allegations were true. It has to be said that the main beneficiary of this was really the UNP because we see that the UNP has managed to regain the areas in which they have been traditionally strong such as the Kandy and Colombo districts and the Badulla district. The public resentment at the unanswered allegations of corruption also bolstered the Sinhala vote for the common candidate even in districts that the SLFP has been traditionally strong.
What now is the challenge facing the new government? The main challenge now is to manage Sinhala resentment at this turn of events. Even with a massive swing in his favour, President Sirisena won only six out of the 16 Sinhala majority districts. (that is outside the north and east and the Nuwara Eliya district.) And of that the Gampaha district was won only by a whisker. The Puttalam district was also won only by a small margin which was really because of the Muslim vote in the Puttalam electorate. The majorities that President Sirisena got from the 16 Sinhala majority districts would not have made him president. Any hopes that this showing will improve at a future election may not be realistic, because this was the ‘wave’, there will be no second ‘wave’ in the same direction. Sirisena owes his presidency to the majorities he got from the North and East. If the present government does not handle things with the utmost care, this very victory will be their undoing.
If the minority parties that made the victory of the common opposition candidate possible would like to see the new government continue, it’s best that they make no demands. During the election campaign they said that they do not have any secret agreements with the common opposition candidate and that their endeavour is to restore democracy in the country. Well, they’d better leave it at that for the foreseeable future. Readers will note that almost the entire bhikku community united behind Mahinda during the election campaign including the delinquent monks in the Bodu Bala Sena, Ravana Balakaya and Sihala Ravaya. The last thing we need at this stage is to give any of these groups a cause or even an excuse to get onto the streets.
The Rajapaksa government baulked at jailing these monks because they could not afford to antagonize the Sinhala Buddhist majority. The new government can jail these monks because they are not dependent on the Sinhala Buddhist vote but if they do so, an avalanche of Sinhala resentment will come down on them and there’s no telling where it will end. Earlier these monks were a lunatic fringe phenomenon. But in the present situation if they are given any excuse at all to come onto the streets, they will have the backing of large sections of the Sinhalese who are now increasingly resentful of the power that the minority communities have displayed over the destiny of this country. The majority of the majority community is no longer at the steering wheel. So the minority leaders should think carefully before giving even a press interview.
Above all else, the new government should be careful about launching ‘investigations’ or anything that smacks of persecution against any member of the Rajapaksa family as suggested by the likes of Champika Ranawaka. The latter may think that the Rajapaksas can be finished off politically by having an investigation against them. But any such attempt will boomerang badly on the new government. During the election campaign, people were told about dictatorships and helicopters but now they find that there is no dictatorship and no helicopters. Above all this mud-slinging against Gotabhaya Rajapaksa saying that he was attempting a coup by sending troops to surround the Elections Commission office as the election results were coming in must stop. The Elections Commissioner himself has already dismissed all such talk as absolute lies in a statement made to the Asian Mirror website. Trying to prejudice the public against the Rajapaksas with such nonsense will only increase public resentment against the new government.
Courtesy:Sunday Island