By
M.K.Bhadrakumar
The arrest of 33 Indian fishermen by Sri Lanka on Saturday hot on the heels of the release of all Indian fishermen (who were exactly 5 in number, as it transpires) by Colombo just a week earlier, ostensibly as a ‘friendly gesture’ toward the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, comes as an embarrassment to Delhi. The international media has been quick to link it with Sri Lankan President Mahinda Raja[aksa’s ‘Modi talks’ in Delhi last Monday.
In sum, after releasing five Indian fishermen last Sunday as a gesture to Delhi and getting much kudos from gullible Indian analysts (and politicians), Colombo has now locked up this Sunday over six times that number — 33 Indian fishermen. It’s a macabre joke, vintage Rajapaksa.
That Rajapaksa was smarting after his meeting with Modi has been the talk of the town in Colombo. As a leading columnist wrote, Rajapaksa’s “anticipated honeymoon with the new government has ended before it could even begin.”
Rajapaksa came to Delhi in a celebratory mood, under the notion that he trumped the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa. According to Sri Lankan columnists, Rajapaksa had been assiduously cultivating the senior BJP politicians like Subramaniam Swamy and was all but certain of getting a warm reception from Modi.
Probably, he wasn’t wrong in such expectation. Modi did greet him warmly at their Hyderabad House meeting, but then, Modi also made it clear during their conversation behind closed doors that he pursued the same objectives with regard to the Sri Lankan Tamil problem that the Manmohan Singh government did. Modi underscored this in no unmistaken terms by calling on Rajapaksa to implement the 13th Amendment and “going beyond” in regard of devolution of powers to the provincial councils in the Tamil areas.
Rajapaksa was apparently taken by surprise. The official line after he returned to Colombo is that his meeting with PM Modi was “successful” and the government spokesmen have put a brave face on it, but no one buys the spin in Colombo.
Meanwhile, the Tamil National Alliance [TNA], Sri Lanka’s main Tamil party, has addressed Modi with a letter alleging that Colombo is pressing ahead with a policy of systematically colonizing the Tamil homelands and seeking his “continued role” to ensure “honorable peace based on justice and equality.”
The TNA leadership has also addressed a letter to Jayalaithaa expressing gratitude for her support. Jayalaithaa has since addressed Modi regarding the detention of the 33 fishermen (detained yesterday by Sri Lankan Navy), seeking a “strong and robust diplomatic response” by Delhi. She urged PM to initiate “appropriate and calibrated set of actions.”
On the other hand, the Colombo establishment commentators are, typically, giving the spin that in the External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, they’d have a “source of strength” in the Modi government — insinuating that she is ’soft’ on Sri Lanka. She had visited Sri Lanka as the then opposition leader in 2012 and appears to have left a favorable impression in the Colombo circuit.
Rajapaksa’s capacity (and political stamina) to withstand Indian pressure should not be underestimated. The Sri Lankan economy has done brilliantly well and according to the IMF’s latest estimation, by registering a growth rate of 7.3% (inflation at 5%), the economic performance has “exceeded expectations.” Again, the bilateral trade is heavily in India’s favor and Delhi cannot easily ‘punish’ Colombo. India is Sri Lanka’s top source for imports (18%, followed by China at 16%) but it depends on the Indian market for only 5% of its exports.
Sri Lanka promises to be an early test case of the Modi government’s neighborhood policies. What compounds matters is that the state of Tamil Nadu beeps on the ruling party BJP’s radar as a hunting ground in the state assembly elections due in 2016.
The paradox is that both Modi and Rajapaksa are strong-willed leaders, who lead stable governments resting on popular mandates heavily laden with the ideology of ‘cultural nationalism’. With presidential and parliamentary elections due in Sri Lanka, Rajapaksa has continued use for Sinhala nationalism and there is no possibility of his implementing the 13th Amendment “and going beyond”.
Meanwhile, Colombo will accelerate the ‘colonization’ policies that would eventually change the demography of the traditional Tamil homelands and create a fait accompli for the Modi government. A setting is available for a engrossing battle of wills between Delhi and Colombo.
(MK Bhadrakumar is a retired Indian diplomat who worked as Political Secretary at the Indian High Commission in Colombo. This blog appears in “The Rediff”)