By

C.A.Chandraprema

Last week, we saw Sri Lanka positioning itself in the new world order as we watched. President Mahinda Rajapaksa attended a summit meeting of the hitherto little heard of ‘Conference on Interaction and Confidence building measures in Asia,’ an organization with the acronym CICA. Everybody has heard of the Non-Aligned Movement, of NATO, ASEAN, EU, the African Union the Arab League and other such bodies but this is the first time that we Sri Lankans heard of a body called CICA. One may say that this is the first time that the awareness of the existence of this body dawned on the world, not just Sri Lanka. But the fact is that Russia and China chose this forum to announce their historic natural gas deal. When Putin went to Shanghai to attend the CICA Summit, Western media said that China and Russia were nowhere near finalizing a deal that would immeasurably increase Russia’s staying power in its conflict with the West over Ukraine.

The Western media in fact had good reason to think that negotiations for the China-Russia natural gas deal which had been dragging on for a decade with no conclusion in sight would drag on for a few years more but a day or two into the conference, Russia and China announced that they had concluded the deal. The timing sends an unmistakable message to the West that China will back Russia to the hilt. That the Sri Lankan president was having meetings with the Chinese leadership during this very same CICA meeting was also a strong signal to India before Narendra Modi becomes prime minister. In the meantime, Modi himself has taken the initiative to invite all leaders of SAARC countries to his swearing ceremony and President Mahinda Rajapaksa has indicated that he will be attending.

Tamil Nadu has as usual erupted in a caterwaul of protest at Rajapaksa coming to Delhi. But at least for the time being, the Modi government does not need to listen to Tamil Nadu. This is the first time that Modi has had to face what the Congress government went through for ten years – needlingly persistent demands and importuning from Tamil Nadu on foreign policy matters. Since all SAARC leaders have been invited, there is no justifiable reason for Sri Lanka to be left out. The irony is that nobody in India has protested at Pakistan being invited even though Pakistan is India’s traditional enemy and is regularly accused of promoting Islamic terrorism on Indian soil. In contrast to that, Tamil Nadu protests when SL is invited, but no state in India other than Tamil Nadu considers Sri Lanka to be an enemy. Indeed many north Indian states would perhaps see Tamil Nadu to be a much greater threat to India than Sri Lanka.  If the BJP bows to a Tamil Nadu diktat, they will have a problem explaining to the larger India outside Tamil Nadu as to why the Sri Lankan president was not invited.

As we pointed out in last week’s column, while Sri Lanka needs powerful friends from outside the region to protect ourselves against the vagaries of Indian politics, that does not mean that India has to be hostile to Sri Lanka. If the Indian central government botches its relationship with Sri Lanka at the behest of just one state, that will not resonate well with the other states who would not see any logic in India making an enemy of another one of its neighbours just to satisfy a single state. Moreover, it will be very difficult for the Indian central government to explain to the other states why they are going along with Tamil Nadu especially in the context of Tamil Nadu’s hostility towards Sri Lanka stemming from the crushing of Tamil terrorism. Since terrorism is a problem in India, the other states would not see the crushing of terrorism to be a reason to ostracise a country.

A central government would perhaps be justified even in the eyes of the rest of India in bowing to the diktat of Tamil Nadu had the latter been a pillar of strength to the central government. That however is exactly what Tamil Nadu is not. Rather than being a pillar of strength, Tamil Nadu is more likely a thorn in the side of the central government. This state is not a pillar of strength to either one of the national political parties but a nuisance to both by making all kinds of shrill demands which are impossible to fulfil. In fact any central government that is actually dependent on Tamil Nadu for survival is done for as their demands on domestic issues can never be implemented. The only purpose that Tamil Nadu seems to be having in mind is using their votes to harness the central government to their yoke and to get their bidding done. Tamil Nadu thinks only of itself and does not make common cause with the rest of India or even with neighbouring states like Andhra Pradesh. In contrast to this, even when Modi was the chief minister of Gujerat he seems to have had some resonance outside the borders of Gujerat in the wider India beyond.

So if Sri Lanka cements a close relationship with China in order to hedge against Tamil Nadu’s influence with the Indian central government, the Indian central government should be able to accept the fact that this is a legitimate fear that SL has and that had they been in Sri Lanka’s position, they too would have done the same. During the war, Sri Lanka had to import huge quantities of arms from China and Pakistan – India’s traditional rivals if not outright enemies – but the Indian government of that time was willing to concede that since India was unable to provide SL with its needs due to the Tamil Nadu factor, Sri Lanka had to look elsewhere for arms supplies. Likewise, if the Indians look at things from Sri Lanka’s perspective, the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka should not be a problem. Furthermore if the Chinese want a foothold in the Indian ocean, that is not to destroy Indian shipping but to protect Chinese shipping moving through these waters. The Indians should perhaps realise that for the Chinese to want to protect their shipping is a legitimate objective and that the Chinese had a right to make alliances with anybody who is willing to help China achieve that goal.   
 

Peaceful co-existence would be impossible without that kind of mature introspection. It is exactly the lack of this element that led to the Ukrainian crisis. The Western powers should have known better than to promote coups on Russia’s doorstep in attempts to absorb Ukraine into the EU. Perhaps mature introspection is necessary in domestic politics as well. It was the lack of this kind of introspection on the part of the Thai opposition that led to the military takeover in that country last week. So we have to hope that the incoming central government in India will exercise mature introspection and consider whether India is really losing anything by Sri Lanka having a close relationship with China. Modi is in a better position to do this especially because he himself has apparently made more visits to China as chief minister of Gujerat than to any other country.

Furthermore, Modi was elected to power more on the domestic issue of revitalizing the Indian economy and not so much on the platform of waging war against India’s neighbours. Carrying on a campaign of harassment and intimidation against one or more of its neighbours is hardly a way to boost the economy or attract foreign investment. So if all these factors are thought of, there is the possibility of the Chinese and Sri Lankans governments being able to work closely together and India will ignore the Chinese presence in SL as only a harmless irritant.

There are many unanswered questions relating to the direction that India will take under Modi. No one knows how the so called ‘strategic partnership’ between India and the USA will work out in the future.  However, even if Modi’s invitation to Mahinda Rajapaksa is the beginning of a wonderful period of cooperation between India and SL, still under no circumstances should SL’s relationship with China be compromised as the Chinese link is Sri Lanka’s hedge against the vagaries of Indian politics.  Even if Mahinda Rajapaksa and Narendra Modi strike up a friendship as close as that between J.R.Jayewardene and Moraji Desai, still the Chinese link should remain intact and the Sri Lankan side should explain to Modi what happened to JRJ after Moraji Desai lost and Indira Gandhi stormed back to power literally crackling with spite. Because of that historic lesson, Sri Lanka should not for love or gold jettison its relationship with China.

COURTESY:SUNDAY ISLAND