A Special Correspondent

The million dollar question that is intriguing everyone in both India and Sri Lanka is, which combination of parties will form the next government in India and who will be Prime Minister after the April elections to the Lok Sabha, the Lower House of the Indian Parliament.

Sri Lankans, whether the majority Sinhalese or the minority Tamils, are anxious about the impact of the results on them. Will the next government in New Delhi uphold the Tamil cause and call for the full implementation of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution with land and police powers given to the provinces? Will it take up the ‘war crimes’ issue? Will it, come what may, ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Sri Lanka or will it sow seeds of separatism? Will New Delhi run with the hare and hunt with the hound, confusing all sides?

No clarity yet

There is no clear cut answer to any of these questions now, even a month before polling. Despite the high voltage and non-stop campaign of the Bharatiya Janata Party’s candidate, Narendra Modi, since September last year, and several surveys conducted by reputed polling agencies, no clear picture on the possible voting pattern has emerged. All one knows is that what seemed to be a one-horse race with Modi as the assured winner, is no longer so. The political situation is so muddled, that even the pro-BJP press is reluctant to go beyond saying that the BJP-Akali Dal-Shiv Sena combine (the core of the National Democratic Alliance or NDA) is a front-runner, with a possible score of 220 out of the 543 seats up for grabs. To win and form a government, it will need 272. The BJP believes that it is possible to get 52 or more to stitch together a government. However, the disturbing fact is that even in this best case scenario, nearly half of Parliament will be in the opposition, and be a constant threat to the government.

The latest survey published by Economic Times this month, has forecast that the BJP-led front will get 210 seats, having come out strongly in populous States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, and riding on its recent impressive electoral successes in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh. The paper also notes that the Indian corporate sector is backing Modi to the hilt, hoping that he will favour them as the promoter of the ‘development’ rather than the ‘social justice’ model identified with the Congress. As Aam Admi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal has charged, the millions being spent on Modi’s relentless, whirlwind campaign are coming from the pockets of certain corporate honchos. With the US and the EU cozying up to Modi, he is now enjoying international legitimacy, even though sections of the Indian intelligentsia are yet to forgive him for the 2002 Gujarat anti-Muslim riots, in which an estimated 2,000 Muslims were massacred.

In February, The Hindustan Times published a survey conducted by the TV channel Headlines Today, which said that the BJP-led coalition would get 188 seats and the Congress-led UPA, 98 to 100. The weakest links in the BJP’s chain are Karnataka (where it is expected to lose seven seats); Pondicherry, Lakshadweep, Chandigarh, West Bengal, the North Eastern states and Tamil Nadu. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP is expecting three out of the 39 seats, but this is clearly chimerical, given the fact that this is possible only if the party is aligned with Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK. But, such an alliance can be ruled out since Jayalalithaa is said to be aiming to be a Prime Ministerial candidate, a position already occupied by Modi. BJP is aligned with Vaiko’s MDMK and is trying to rope in Dr. Ramadoss’ PMK in Tamil Nadu. But, both MDMK and PMK are small parties. According to a Times Now-Cvoter survey conducted in October 2013, the AIADMK could get 28 out of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu; Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party 25 in Uttar Pradesh; Mamata Bannerji’s Trinamool Congress 23 in West Bengal, and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) 9 in Bihar. Many quarters now expect the DMK to get 10 to 15 seats in Tamil Nadu, despite the recent divisions in the party and lack of criticism of the AIADMK government in the media. The recent rift between the AIADMK and the Left Parties over seat sharing has boosted the prospects of the DMK.

Some political observers give the BJP and its allies 170 to 180 seats; the Congress and its allies 100 to 110, and the Third Front and others the rest of the 253 seats.
Overall in India, the Muslims (who constitute 14% of the population) are unlikely to cast their lot with the BJP, especially if led by Modi. Modi has been let off by the courts and has even apologized for the carnage. And he has not made any anti-Muslim statements in his campaign so far. Yet, the Muslims remain unmoved.

Anti-corruption movement

If the Congress is on a weak wicket it is because its second term, which began in May-June 2009, has been bristling with scams and scandals. Political mismanagement, arrogance and disregard of the rights of States under the Constitution have also marred its second innings.

The last two years have been bad for India economically, and the blame has been placed at the door of the Congress-led United Peoples’ Alliance (UPA) regime. In 2013, India grew at 4.8 per cent, down from 5.1 per cent the previous year. This was substantially because the world economy was itself in a bad way growing at 2.1 per cent in 2013. Even in 2014, the latter is expected to grow only at 3 per cent. High interest rates hit private sector investment in India. Scandals and a policy paralysis stymied growth. Rise in food grain prices hit the common man.

Top level corruption involving the Congress and its alliance partners gave rise to two movements, one led by Anna Hazare and the other by Arvind Kejriwal. The latter’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) assumed power in Delhi State, albeit briefly.

Hung Parliament

Many observers say that the elections will yield a hung Parliament, opening the floodgates to horse trading. There is a widespread feeling that in its bid to secure allies, the BJP may jettison Modi, who is seen as a hardliner and a divider, and replace him by a moderate like L.K. Advani or even a newcomer like Rajnath Singh.

The Congress appears to have decided to sit in the opposition hoping to come back as a new brand in the next elections. But, the 253-strong grouping of non-attached parties (Third Front) could make a bid for power. If it does, the Congress may support it from outside. If Jayalalithaa does not join the NDA, she could try to become the Third Front’s candidate for the Premiership. Others from the Front, who could like top job, are Navin Patnaik of Orissa, Nitish Kumar of Bihar and Mamata Bannerji of West Bengal. But, will they give up being Chief Minister and enter Parliament? Jayalalithaa, for one, would rather remain in Tamil Nadu and send her lackeys to Delhi to do her bidding there. She has done this before.

Impact on Sri Lanka

As regards the impact of the results on Sri Lanka, the government in Colombo will be in real danger only if Jayalalithaa’s 30-odd MPs can bring down the government in Delhi or Jayalalithaa herself becomes the Prime Minister. The chances of Jayalalithaa becoming PM have diminished greatly after she tried to release the killers of Rajiv Gandhi in a short-sighted political move to checkmate DMK Chief, M. Karunanidhi. However, even if the AIADMK is just a part of the Central Government, she could insist on the implementation of her party’s manifesto, which had called for economic sanctions against Sri Lanka; the trial of those who had committed ‘war crimes;’ and a ban on military ties with Sri Lanka. The DMK too will give trouble, as indeed it did earlier, but it will not be a major headache like Jayalalithaa.

Left to himself, Modi or anybody in the BJP who comes as PM, will be generally friendly to Colombo while insisting that the 13th Amendment should not be discarded, and urging the Sri Lankan Government to commit itself to devolution of power to the Tamils. Economic, trade and military ties with Sri Lanka will not suffer. The Third Front too will follow the same path, unless of course it is abjectly dependent on the AIADMK.

However, the silver lining is, even if the Dravidian parties walk out of the government, other parties will prop it up. The DMK walked out of the Congress-led government on the Sri Lankan Tamil issue, but other parties came to its rescue.

COURTESY:CEYLON TODAY