{"id":87290,"date":"2026-03-10T18:00:40","date_gmt":"2026-03-10T22:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=87290"},"modified":"2026-03-10T23:28:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T03:28:15","slug":"87290","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=87290","title":{"rendered":"While technology wins battles, it is the human will and a clear \u201cend-state\u201d that win wars. The current US-Israeli campaign against Iran is missing both; In contrast, the Iranian population,views this as a war for national survival."},"content":{"rendered":"

By
\nMaj-Gen Dr. Boniface Perera<\/strong><\/p>\n

The history of warfare is littered with the hubris of technologically superior powers who underestimated the resilience of a civilization state. On February 28, 2026, the world watched as a decapitation strike, intended to trigger a regime change in Tehran instead ignited a firestorm that threatens to consume the global economy.<\/p>\n

As an infantry officer who spent two decades in the trenches of the Sri Lankan civil war, I have seen firsthand that while technology wins battles, it is the human will and a clear \u201cend-state\u201d that win wars. The current US-Israeli campaign against Iran is missing both; mirroring the same strategic failures that plagued the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in Sri Lanka.<\/p>\n

1. The geographic and demographic fortress<\/strong><\/p>\n

The fundamental miscalculation begins with a failure to understand what Iran is. Unlike Iraq, Libya, or Venezuela, Iran is a mountain-guarded civilization with a population of 92 million. It is 25 times the size of Sri Lanka and 75 times the size of Israel.<\/p>\n

In military terms, Iran is a \u201cdefender\u2019s dream.\u201d Its rugged terrain acts as a natural force multiplier. Any attempt at a ground assault would require a commitment of troops that neither the United States nor Israel is prepared to lose. Western societies are historically casualty-averse; they \u201cfear death and injury by nature\u201d when the cause is not perceived as an existential threat to their own soil. In contrast, the Iranian population, now galvanised by the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, views this as a war for national survival.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

2. The War of Attrition: Interceptors vs. Drones<\/strong><\/p>\n

The US-Israeli strategy relied on a \u201c100-hour\u201d knockout blow heavy casualties and immediate regime collapse. However, the Iranian strategy is more patient and far more dangerous: a war of attrition. By dragging the conflict out, Iran is successfully depleting the expensive and limited stocks of Western interceptor missiles. A swarm of low cost Iranian drones and ballistic missiles costs a fraction of the Aegis or Iron Dome interceptors used to stop them. Once those interceptors are depleted, the 27 American bases in the Middle East become \u201csitting ducks.\u201d Iran is not fighting to win a traditional dogfight; they are fighting to make the cost of American presence unsustainable.<\/p>\n

3. The Economic Noose: The Strait of Hormuz<\/strong><\/p>\n

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through the global markets. While President Trump threatened to force the passage open, the reality on the water is different. Iran\u2019s proximity to the strait gives it a decisive military advantage via shore-based anti-ship missiles and asymmetric naval tactics.<\/p>\n

The result? Oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel. This is an economic \u201cdirty bomb\u201d dropped on the doorsteps of Europe and Asia. For countries like Sri Lanka, already navigating delicate economic recoveries, these prices are catastrophic. By allowing Chinese and Russian vessels to pass while blocking others, Iran is effectively driving a wedge between the US and its traditional allies, who now see American policy as the primary threat to their own heating and transport costs.<\/p>\n

4. The \u201cVietnam\u201d of the Middle East: Lack of Domestic Support<\/strong><\/p>\n

No war can be won without the \u201cblessing\u201d of the local population. The American public doesn\u2019t see Iran as a direct threat. There is a growing realization that this is an \u201cIsrael-first\u201d war, funded by lobby interests rather than national necessity.<\/p>\n

President Trump campaigned on an \u201cAmerica First\u201d platform, promising to end \u201cforever wars.\u201d By initiating this conflict, he has inverted that promise. He is now spending an estimated $3.2 billion every 100 hours. If this war lasts 100 days, the bill will exceed more than half of American defense budget and American taxpayers will not tolerate for a war of choice.<\/p>\n

5. The IPKF Parallel: A War without an End-State<\/strong><\/p>\n

My experience with the IPKF in Sri Lanka provides the most haunting parallel. The Indian Army entered Sri Lanka with superior numbers and technology, but they lacked a clear, achievable end-state. They were fighting on behalf of another\u2019s interests, and the \u201chuman psychology\u201d of the soldier reflects that.
\nIn Iran, the US has no realistic end-state.<\/p>\n

Regime Change?<\/strong> The killing of the leadership has unified a fractured population.<\/p>\n

Surrender?<\/strong> A civilization with thousands of years of history does not surrender to a \u201cblessing\u201d from Washington.<\/p>\n

\tPuppet Leadership?<\/strong> Any leader appointed by Trump would have zero legitimacy and would be assassinated within days.<\/p>\n

6. The Crumbling of NATO and International Law<\/strong><\/p>\n

The arrest of Venezuelan Leader Nicol\u00e1s Maduro and the threats toward Greenland had already alienated NATO. This unilateral strike on Iran, conducted under the influence of the Israel lobby, has left the US isolated. When the commander-in-chief prioritises the interests of a foreign lobby over the stability of his own allies, the \u201cgood faith\u201d that holds alliances together evaporates.<\/p>\n

Impact of Iran-US Conflict on Sri Lanka<\/strong><\/p>\n

The military escalation on February 28, 2026, between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran has triggered a seismic shock to the global economy. For Sri Lanka, a nation still in the \u201cfragile waiting zone\u201d of recovery after its 2022 crisis, this conflict is not a distant geopolitical event. It is a direct threat to its national stability.<\/p>\n

The Macro-Economic Fallout<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sri Lanka\u2019s economy is deeply tethered to the Middle East through three primary lifelines: Energy, Remittances and Exports.<\/p>\n

Energy Insecurity: Sri Lanka is a net importer of oil, spending approximately $3.8 billion annually. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which 20% of global oil flows has already pushed Brent crude toward the $100-$110 range. This feeds directly into the domestic pricing formula, causing immediate spikes in petrol and diesel prices.<\/p>\n

The Remittance Risk: Over one million Sri Lankans work in the Gulf. Remittances, which reached over $8 billion in 2025, are the backbone of the island\u2019s foreign exchange reserves. A regional war puts these workers in physical danger and threatens to freeze the primary source of dollar inflows.<\/p>\n

Export Disruptions: The Middle East (specifically Iran, Iraq, and the UAE) accounts for nearly 20% of Ceylon Tea exports. War-related logistics hurdles and reduced purchasing power in these markets threaten the livelihoods of the plantation sector.<\/p>\n

Strategic Recommendations for Sri Lanka<\/strong><\/p>\n

To weather this storm, the government and the private sector must pivot from \u201crecovery\u201d to \u201cdefensive resilience.<\/p>\n

Just as in the infantry, the success of Sri Lanka\u2019s economic defense depends on the psychology of the public.<\/p>\n

1. Transparency:<\/strong> The government must provide regular, honest briefings on fuel stocks (currently at ~35 days) to prevent panic buying and hoarding.<\/p>\n

2. Vulnerable Protection:<\/strong> Targeted subsidies must be used to shield the poorest from the \u201cimported inflation\u201d of food and transport costs.<\/p>\n

3. Diplomatic Neutrality:<\/strong> Sri Lanka must maintain its \u201cfriend to all\u201d foreign policy, ensuring that its shipping lanes remain open even as major powers take sides.<\/p>\n

The 2026 conflict is a reminder that in a globalised world, a spark in the Persian Gulf can start a fire in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka must act with the discipline of an infantry unit; clear objectives, managed resources and a focus on survival.<\/p>\n


\nConclusion: The Inevitable Settlement<\/strong><\/p>\n

The \u201cman behind the weapon\u201d always matters more than the weapon itself. The Iranian soldier is fighting for his home; the American soldier is fighting for a policy he doesn\u2019t understand.<\/p>\n

Within a month, the pressure will become unbearable. Between the depletion of interceptors, the rebellion of European allies, the global outcry over oil prices, and the mounting body bags, Trump will find himself with no escape. He will be forced to the negotiating table for a settlement he never intended to grant.<\/p>\n

The 2026 Iran war is a lesson in the limits of power. You cannot bomb a civilization into a democracy, and you cannot win a war when your own people don\u2019t believe in the cause.<\/p>\n

Courtesy:Daily Mirror<\/em><\/p>\n

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By Maj-Gen Dr. Boniface Perera The history of warfare is littered with the hubris of technologically superior powers who underestimated the resilience of a civilization state. On February 28, 2026, the world watched as a decapitation strike, intended to trigger a regime change in Tehran instead ignited a firestorm that threatens to consume the global …<\/p>\n

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