{"id":84140,"date":"2024-06-04T18:09:26","date_gmt":"2024-06-04T22:09:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=84140"},"modified":"2024-06-04T19:18:16","modified_gmt":"2024-06-04T23:18:16","slug":"84140","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=84140","title":{"rendered":"Defying Doomsday Predictions of Exit polls the Congress -led INDIA -Bloc of Opposition Parties Shock the Ruling BJP in vital states, thereby resetting India\u2019s political landscape."},"content":{"rendered":"


\nBy Yashraj Sharma<\/strong><\/p>\n

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its national majority after suffering major losses in key states, marking a dramatic shift in a political landscape it has dominated for the past decade.<\/p>\n

The BJP emerged, comfortably, as the country\u2019s single-largest party in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India\u2019s parliament. But with most votes counted after India\u2019s six-week-long election on Tuesday, the BJP was well short of its performances from 2014 and 2019.
\nUnlike both those elections, when the BJP won clear majorities on its own in a house of 543 seats, it was poised to end up with 240 seats this time around. The halfway mark is 272 seats.<\/p>\n

By contrast, the opposition INDIA alliance, led by the Congress party, was projected to win more than 200 seats, significantly higher than exit polls had predicted. Released on June 1 after the final phase of India\u2019s election cycle, the exit polls had suggested that the BJP would outdo its 2019 tally of 303 seats.<\/p>\n

Modi and his party are still likely to be able to form India\u2019s next government \u2014 but will be dependent on a clutch of allies whose support they will need to cross the 272-seat mark. The BJP with its allies, in a coalition known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), was projected to win around 282 seats.<\/p>\n

\u201cIndia will likely have an NDA government, where the BJP does not have a majority on their own, and coalition politics will come into real play,\u201d said Sandeep Shastri, the national coordinator of the Lokniti Network, a research programme at the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
\nOn Tuesday evening, Modi claimed, in his first comments after the results were declared, victory for his NDA coalition. \u201cWe will form the next government,\u201d he said, speaking to thousands of supporters gathered at the BJP\u2019s party headquarters in New Delhi.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Yet analysts said that the electoral verdict raised questions about the BJP\u2019s strategy. As India\u2019s long-drawn-out election campaign played out, Modi, India\u2019s charismatic and polarising prime minister, had increasingly turned to fearmongering over an alleged plot by the opposition to hand over the nation\u2019s resources to Muslims, at the cost of its majority Hindus. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the opposition had tried to corner Modi on his government\u2019s economic track record: While the country is the world\u2019s fastest-growing major economy, voters told pollsters ahead of the election that high inflation and unemployment were key concerns for them.<\/p>\n

The BJP\u2019s campaign slogan, \u201cAbki baar, 400 paar (This time, more than 400)\u201d, set a target of 400 seats for its alliance, and 370 seats for the BJP itself.<\/p>\n

That pitch carried a \u201ctone of overconfidence\u201d, said Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, a Modi biographer, at a time when many in the Indian public were dealing with the lived realities of soaring prices, joblessness and income inequality so wide that it is now worse than during British colonial rule. The result was the \u201csleepwalking of the BJP into a disaster\u201d, said Asim Ali, a political analyst and columnist.<\/p>\n

\u201cToday, Modi has lost his face. He is not that \u2018undefeated person\u2019 and his invincible aura is not there anymore,\u201d said Ali.
\nForming the next government
\nIn some ways, the election verdict carries echoes of 2004, when another incumbent BJP government under then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was widely expected to win a landslide mandate by exit polls.<\/p>\n

Instead, the Congress marginally edged the BJP in wins, and formed the government with its allies.<\/p>\n

But 2024 is not 2004. Despite the setbacks, the BJP is still by far the largest party in parliament, and in position to form the next government along with its NDA allies. Congress, the largest opposition party, is on course to win around 100 seats, less than half of the tally the BJP is expected to end up with when all votes are counted.<\/p>\n

Still, two regional parties will now hold the key to the office of the prime minister of India: Janata Dal-United, led by Nitish Kumar in the state of Bihar; and the Telugu Desam Party, led by Chandrababu Naidu in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. The TDP won 16 seats and the JD(U) 12. Both the parties have also previously been in alliance with the Congress party.<\/p>\n

While the BJP has made noticeable inroads in southern India \u2014 especially Kerala, where it won its first-ever Lok Sabha seat \u2014 its overall numbers were hit by major losses in the central Hindi-speaking states, which it had swept in the last election.
\nIn Uttar Pradesh, India\u2019s biggest state and a key determinant of who rules nationally, the Hindu-nationalist party lost in the Faizabad parliamentary district, home to the controversial Ram Temple, built upon the ruins of the 16th-century Babri Masjid. Modi had consecrated the temple in January.<\/p>\n

The consecration of the Ram Temple, overseen by Modi, was at the forefront of the BJP\u2019s campaign to mobilise the Hindu voters. The party also lost the key seat of Amethi, where federal minister Smriti Irani is staring at defeat. Irani had pulled off a spectacular win over Rahul Gandhi, the scion of the Gandhi family, by 55,000 votes in 2019. This year, Gandhi contested from neighbouring Rae Bareli constituency and won the seat by a margin more than twice the size by which Modi won his seat, Varanasi, also in Uttar Pradesh.<\/p>\n

Overall, the BJP won just 33 seats out of Uttar Pradesh\u2019s 80, a significant drop from the 62 it won in 2019 and its tally of 71 from 2014. The regional Samajwadi Party, a part of the opposition INDIA alliance, won 37 seats, while the Congress won six others.
\nThe BJP also suffered losses in Maharashtra, India\u2019s second-most politically critical state. With most votes counted, the INDIA alliance was ahead in 30 of the state\u2019s 48 seats. Only Uttar Pradesh has more seats \u2014 80. In 2019, the BJP alone had won 23 seats in Maharashtra, with its allies winning another 18.<\/p>\n

Along with Maharashtra, three other states that have been epicentres of India\u2019s agrarian crisis, with major farm protests, also saw losses for the BJP compared to 2019: Haryana, Rajasthan and Punjab. The BJP rules the states of Haryana and Rajasthan.<\/p>\n

Congress celebrations<\/strong><\/p>\n

As soon as the initial trends trickled in Tuesday morning, Congress supporters thronged the party headquarters in New Delhi. Supporters were seen sporting white T-shirts with photos of Rahul Gandhi on the back, as they waved the party flags, their eyes glued to giant screens broadcasting results live.<\/p>\n

\u201cNow, at least Indian people will have a voice to raise against the cruel BJP, who ruled us for the last 10 years. More seats mean we have a good say and a strong opposition,\u201d said Suresh Verma, a Congress supporter.<\/p>\n

That changed composition of India\u2019s next parliament might also affect how laws are passed. Critics have accused the BJP government of ramming laws through parliament without discussions and debate.
\nThat won\u2019t be easy anymore, said Shastri. \u201cIt is going to be a much tougher ride in the parliament, very clearly, for the BJP,\u201d he said.
\nBeyond parliament, analysts said a weakened mandate could impact the functioning of India\u2019s other democratic institutions, which critics have accused the BJP of appropriating for partisan politics.
\n\u201cUnder brute majority, institutions have collapsed in India under the BJP. The power system was very centralised at the top, and India needs these kinds of coalition-based governments for its democracy to survive,\u201d Ali said.<\/p>\n

What next for the BJP?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Once the immediate dust settles over these results, the BJP will introspect and the dominant duo of Modi and Amit Shah, India\u2019s home minister who is widely seen as the prime minister\u2019s deputy, will face tougher questions. \u201cThere will be questions on imagining Modi as a leader of the alliance, where he would have to listen to non-BJP leaders much more,\u201d said Shastri of the CSDS.<\/p>\n

Ali, the political analyst, also noted that \u201cthe BJP failed to read the ground\u201d, and a set of yes men around Modi potentially blindsided his party. \u201cIt is like the king was only told the tales that he wanted to hear,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s really important for the BJP that there is a feedback mechanism and decentralisation of the power.\u201d
\nOver the past decade under a majority BJP government under Modi, India has slid on several democratic indices amid accusations of a crackdown on dissent, political opposition, and media. Modi did not address any press conferences in the last decade as a prime minister.<\/p>\n

With coalition partners to keep a check on the BJP, there \u201cwill be breathing space for the Indian civil society and the government\u2019s critics\u201d, said Mukhopadhyay, the biographer.
\nTo many Indian Muslims, the outcome also means relief.
\nWatching the results from his shanty in northeastern New Delhi, Akbar Khan, a 33-year-old waste picker, said he was delighted. While all of Delhi\u2019s seats are currently being led by the BJP in trends, Khan said that \u201cthe people came out on streets and have fought this election against the [incumbent] government\u201d.<\/p>\n

Khan, who also works with waste picker communities in states like Bihar and Jharkhand, said, \u201cThe economically backward castes and classes are hugely upset with Modi, and his divisive politics have not borne any fruits in their kitchen.\u201d
\nAs a Muslim, Khan said, he was upset by Modi\u2019s Islamophobic remarks during the re-election campaign, where he equated the community with \u201cinfiltrators\u201d and described them as people \u201cwho have more children\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIndians needed to vote against this hate from Modi and the BJP,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA<\/em><\/p>\n

Tweet<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Yashraj Sharma Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its national majority after suffering major losses in key states, marking a dramatic shift in a political landscape it has dominated for the past decade. The BJP emerged, comfortably, as the country\u2019s single-largest party in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of …<\/p>\n

Continue reading ‘Defying Doomsday Predictions of Exit polls the Congress -led INDIA -Bloc of Opposition Parties Shock the Ruling BJP in vital states, thereby resetting India\u2019s political landscape.’ »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84140"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84140"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84144,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84140\/revisions\/84144"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}