{"id":83910,"date":"2024-04-18T01:11:35","date_gmt":"2024-04-18T05:11:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=83910"},"modified":"2024-04-18T02:22:23","modified_gmt":"2024-04-18T06:22:23","slug":"83910","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=83910","title":{"rendered":"A US \u201cKaputa\u201d (Crow) ,a Lankan \u201cNariya\u201d (Fox) and a Presidential Election \u201cFeast\u201d."},"content":{"rendered":"


\nBy<\/p>\n

D.B.S.Jeyaraj<\/strong><\/p>\n

The encounter between the Fox and Crow is an ancient tale heard by most Sri Lankans in their childhood days. The crow has a vadai or kavun or piece of cheese in its beak. The crafty fox wants it and flatters the crow into thinking it is a harmonious singer with a sweet voice. The fox entreats the crow to sing. The foolishly vain crow opens its mouth to sing and drops the titbit it has in its beak. The smart fox runs off with it, l eaving behind a dejected crow. This story has been made famous by singers like MS Fernando (Sora Gathu Keju Kaala) and AE Manoharan (Ka Kaa Kakakaka Ka Ka Ka) in their songs too. <\/p>\n

A modern version of this fable is currently unfolding in Sri Lanka . In a reversal of the old story, the crow tries to deceive the fox now. A \u201cKaputa\u201d (Crow) from the US meets with a \u201cNariya\u201d(Fox) in Sri Lanka. The fox is planning to devour a feast , fit for a king sorry President. The crow wants to prevent it. So it resorts to many stratagems including a \u2018blow hot blow cold\u201d approach to compel the fox from partaking of the presidential feast. This Americanized crow is regarded by its followers as a brilliant bird with seven brains.<\/p>\n

Despite the US crow\u2019s persistent efforts the Lankan fox does not budge. The wily animal knows that the prospective presidential feast is the best meal it can have in a long,long life of political disappointments. Reynard also knows that the crow though a tactical ally is actually a strategic enemy. Hence the Fox gives the crow a patient hearing and then proceeds with preparations to devour the Presidential feast. In spite of racking its seven brains, the outfoxed crow is flummoxed and does not know what to do except to get its minions \u201ccaw caw\u201d in the media.<\/p>\n

Basil\u2019s Return<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Basil Rajapaksa returned amid much political excitement a few weeks ago to Sri Lanka after a lengthy stay in Los Angeles.The politically astute Medamulana sibling has a fan club that hailed him once as a seven brained wonder. Much of that sheen has worn off after the \u201cAragalaya\u201d(Struggle) protests but there are still some \u201cBasilistas\u201d who think of him as a political genius capable of performing wonderful miracles.<\/p>\n

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna(SLPP) is the political party founded by Basil Rajapaksa. He nurtured the party to success as the SLPP National organizer. The SLPP within a few years of its existence won the majority of councils in the local authority elctions of 2018. The SLPP candidate Gotabaya Rajapaksa won the 2019 presidential election polling 69 Lakhs of votes. <\/p>\n

In 2020 the SLPP and its allies won 146 of the 225 seats in Parliament\/ Basil was the master strategist who planned and coordinated the campaign. Basil also used the \u201ccarrot and stick\u201dmethod to entice 8 opposition MPs to enable the SLPP Govt to command a two-thirds majority in the House.<\/p>\n

A chain is as strong as its weakest link. The seemingly all powerful SLPP regime was headed by autocratic strong man Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Appearances can be deceptive. Instead of being a strong man as projected by his party, Gotabaya proved to be a weak coward when faced with a crisis of his own making. He went down in history as the first Sri Lankan president to flee from the country and submit his resignation from foreign soil.<\/p>\n

The decline and downfall of the Rajapaksa regime is a well-known matter that nees no repetition. Basil himself was forced to resign as Finance minister. Subsequently he quit as national list MP too. <\/p>\n

The 21st Constitutional Amendment that debars dual citizens from contesting political positions, has effectively killed Basil\u2019s chances of gaining a powerful De-jure Govt position again. Yet he retains de -faacto political power as the livewire of the SLPP which is still the majority party in Parliament… Mahinda Rajapaksa is the leader of the SLPP but it is Basil who runs the party. Whether this state of affairs will change after Namal Rajapaksa replaced Basil as SLPP National organizer remains to be seen.<\/p>\n


\nRanil Wickremesinghe<\/strong><\/p>\n

The SLPP was floundering in choppy waters when the Aragalaya storm raged. The party got a lifeline when Ranil Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister and then President. In De Jure terms it was President Gotabaya who appointed Ranil as Premier and as acting president. It was the SLPP which voted in large numbers for Wickremesinghe to be elected as President in a Parliamentary vote. Also it is the support provided by MPs of the SLPP that enables president Wickremesinghe to pass the Budget and other legislation in Parliament.<\/p>\n

The legal position therefore is one of Ranil Wickremesinghe being backed and supported as President by the SLPP. Most members of his Govt both cabinet and state ministers are from the SLPP.After all, Wickremesinghe has only a single MP from the UNP in Parliament. This situation has provided ammunition to Ranil\u2019s detractors in the opposition and the media who attack him as a puppet of the Rajapaksa-led SLPP.<\/p>\n

This accusation however appears incorrect in factual terms. Though compelled at times by practical politics to engage in minor compromises with the Rajapaksa-led SLPP, Wickremesinghe has demonstrated through his presidential conduct that he is no lackey or stooge of the Rajapaksas. Ranil has proved time and again that he is an Independent person who cannot be cowed by the Rajapaksas or the SLPP. Wickremesinghe does not adopt a confrontational attitude with the Rajapaksas as he needs SLPP cooperation to run the Govt.Nevertheless Wickremesinghe runs things in his own way especially in the economic sphere. This is the De-facto position.<\/p>\n

Ranil has resisted repeated demands to appoint certain SLPP Parliamentarians as ministers. These disgruntled MPs and Basil\u2019s mouthpiece Sagara Kariyawasam often boast pompously that Wickremesinghe was appointed by the SLPP and that he is their creature but the silent majority within SLPP Members of the Govt have only a healthy respect for Ranil. Having worked closely with him, they are impressed by his knowledge, ability, efficience and ong term vision.<\/p>\n

It is only Ranil Wickremesinghe who has a working plan to uplift Sri Lanka from the deep economic morass it has sunk into and lead Lanka on the road to economic recovery. He has been doing this effectively from the time he took over the reins of power. The country got breathing space. Today it is slowly and surely progressing though it will require at least five more years of Ranil steering the ship of state for Lanka to reach a satisfactory c state of affairs economically<\/p>\n

Hence the reality is one where the SLPP has got a reprieve due to Wickremesinghe being at the helm. SLPP Mps who were cowering in fear are now moving about without tre[idation. They are organizing public meetings where people like Namal Rajapaksa and \u201cRatharang\u201dRohitha are able to talk tough. All this would not have been possible but for Ranil. The SLPP owes a political debt to Wickremesinghe. A sizable number of SLPP ministers, state ministers, Govt MPs and MPs in the opposition realise this.<\/p>\n

Presidential Election<\/strong><\/p>\n

A new Presidential election is due this year and the incumbent president intends contesting. While the bulk of SLPP parliamentarians are supportive of Ranil, there are others in the \u201cPohottuwa\u201dcamp who are not. It is against this backdrop that SLPP masterbrain Basil Rajapaksa returned to Lanka. Thereafter he has engaged in a series of discussions with President Wickremesinghe. This process has been supplemented by several inspired leaks appearing in different sections of the media.<\/p>\n

It appears that Basil Rajapaksa has tried in many ways to make Wickremesinghe alter his plans about the Presidential election. Basil and his acolytes within the SLPP want the Parliamentary election to be held first. <\/p>\n

First Reason<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are two broad reasons. The first is that the SLPP is not in a position to contest and win the presidential poll. The Rajapaksas would always prefer one of the clan to contest. In this case Namal seems to be the obvious choice. Fielding Namal is dicey. If the \u201crising son\u201dfares miserably in the poll, that may affect his political future. <\/p>\n

The other option is to field a non -Rajapaksa \u201coutsider\u201d. But the problem here for the Rajapaksas is tricky. If that candidate does badly it will dampen SLPP\u2019s future electoral prospects. On the other hand if the non -Rajapaksa candidate does well, the Rajapaksas would feel threatened. A SLPP Presidential candidate who garners a large number of votes will gain political strength and legitimacy and could become a potential aspirant to SLPP leadership. This could prove to be a challenge to Rajapaksa domination in the future. It may be recalled that when SLPP dissident MP Dullas Alahapperuma vied for the presidency, the jittery Rajapaksas opted for Ranil instead of the man from Matara.<\/p>\n

Second Reason<\/strong><\/p>\n

The second broad reason is about the future president.With the prospect of a SLPP president being ruled out, the Rajapaksas are concerned about who the next President would be. If the JVP\u2019s Anura Kumara Dissanayake is elected, doomsday bells would start tolling for the Rajapaksas and the SLPP. In such a scenario the best bet is for the SLPP to back Wickremesinghe as the second best choice. However the cussedness of the Rajapaksas and their penchant for \u201cKarapincha\u201dtreatment stand in the way.<\/p>\n

The Rajapaksa clan is split over Ranil\u2019s presidential prospects. Some are neutral, some are for Ranil and some are against Ranil. There is apprehension that if Ranil contests and wins the presidency,his hand would be strengthened politically. The pro-Wickremesinghe alliance that elected him to office could contest Parliamentary elections and do well. This would diminish the SLPP and by extension the Rajapaksa clout.<\/p>\n

Therefore Basil wanted Ranil to conduct the Parliament poll first. He gave out some sanctimonious reasons for the request. Ranil may have been too polite not to howl with laughter at the sight of Basil\u2019s philosophy about acquisition of too much power and its negative consequences. <\/p>\n

Basil\u2019s Calculation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Basil\u2019s calculation is that the SLPP could win a bloc of seats if a Parliament poll is held first. It could also compel many SLPP MPs who are pro-Wickremesinghe to return to party folds. Above all , Wickremesinghe and his alliance are not likely to fare as well as they would in a Presidential election.<\/p>\n

An early Parliamentary election could also reduce the JVP\u2019s seat tally.If Anura Kumara polls a huge amount of votes at the presidential hustings, that could result in the party doing similarly well in the parliamentary poll. But if the Parliament elections are held first, the JVP could increase their MP tally but not to a very great extent.<\/p>\n

Sajith Premadasa and the SJB are likely to perform better in an early parliament election. The Tamil and Muslim parties as well as other MPs who are likely to cross over to Ranil if and when a Presidential election is announced would not do so. They would remain with Sajith. But if a presidential poll is held first, these parties are very likely to align with Ranil. Also many in the SJB will join Ranil if the presidential poll is held. They will hesitate to leave Sajith if a Parliamentary election is first.<\/p>\n

Weaken Wickremesinghe<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thus a Parliamentary election being held first would weaken Wickremesinghe considerably. He would no longer hold the whip hand as he contests the presidential election. Meanwhile the SLPP may be able to strengthen their position by engineering break-aways and cross-overs from other parties. The SLPP could even sideline Wickremesinghe and finish him off politically. The party hierarchy has been helpleslly tolerating Ranil\u2019s impudent independence and would love to bring him down notwithstanding the fact that he earned the SLPP a reprieve. The Rajapaksa hallmark \u201cUse and throw\u201dcan apply to Ranil too.<\/p>\n

Foxy Cunning<\/strong><\/p>\n

Under these circumstances the SLPP\u2019s master strategist Basil Rajapaksa tried to coax, cajole or co-erce Ranil Wickremesinghe into opting for a Parliamentary election first. Despite all his endeavours ,there was nothing for Basil to crow about as foxy Ranil stayed put. <\/p>\n

Wickremesinghe\u2019s critics especially Tamil politicians and journalists often describe him as a man with \u201cNarithanthiram\u201d(foxy cunning). Ranil said he would consider an early Parliamentary election if 113 MPs sign a letter calling for dissolution of Parliament. Ranil knows that the majority of MPs don\u2019t want an early Parliamentary election. If Basil tried to force Pohottuwa MPs a large number would even split. Hence Basil cannot get a majority of MPs to demand an early poll.<\/p>\n

So Wickremesinghe remained frm and did not fall victim to Basil\u2019s wily stratagems. He would not conduct Parliamentary elections first. Ranil knows that the best thing for him is to conduct the Presidential election first because he has a very good chance of winning it. He will go ahead with the presidential poll despite the SLPP\u2019s antics.<\/p>\n

Given Ranil Wickremesinghe\u2019s firm stance, there is very little that Basil Rajapaks could do. The party itself is confused about its future course of action. Should the SLPP field a presidential candidate of its own or should it lend support to Wickremesinghe\u2019s candidacy? This is the party\u2019s dilemma. Furthermore there is a nagging fear. If the SLPP succeeds in undermining Wickremesinghe out of spite , will that enable Anura Kumara or Sajith to win? If that happens would not the Pohottuwa now in the frying pan ,fall into the fire then?<\/p>\n


\nPragmatic Mahinda<\/strong><\/p>\n

The responsibility of arriving at a decision about fielding an SLPP presidential candidate has been given to party leader Mahinda Rajapaksa. It is believed that the pragmatic Mahinda would reach a decision that would benefit his party as well as Namal his eldest son and political heir. Ultimately there can only be a Hobson\u2019s choice for the SLPP. The Pohottuwa must find a way to support Ranil without appearing to do so.<\/p>\n

D.B.S. Jeyaraj can be reached at dbsjeyaraj@yahoo.com<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

This is an updated version of the \u201cDBS Jeyaraj Column\u201dappearing in the \u201cDaily Mirror\u201dof 16 April 2024.It can be accessed here \u2013<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.dailymirror.lk\/opinion\/A-US-Kaputa-a-Lankan-Nariya-and-a-Presidential-Feast\/172-280735<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

***********************************************************<\/strong><\/p>\n

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By D.B.S.Jeyaraj The encounter between the Fox and Crow is an ancient tale heard by most Sri Lankans in their childhood days. The crow has a vadai or kavun or piece of cheese in its beak. The crafty fox wants it and flatters the crow into thinking it is a harmonious singer with a sweet …<\/p>\n

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