{"id":56325,"date":"2017-11-10T18:54:07","date_gmt":"2017-11-10T23:54:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=56325"},"modified":"2017-11-10T18:54:49","modified_gmt":"2017-11-10T23:54:49","slug":"sri-lankas-balancing-act-in-indian-ocean-power-play-between-china-and-india-going-to-be-increasingly-difficult","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=56325","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lanka’s Balancing Act in Indian Ocean Power Play Between China and India is Going to be Increasingly Difficult in the Future."},"content":{"rendered":"

By<\/p>\n

Col R.Hariharan
\n <\/strong><\/p>\n

It looks like Sri Lanka\u2019s balancing act in the China-India power play in the Indian Ocean is going to get more and more difficult the coming months and years. China\u2019s assertion of economic and military power is poised to grow stronger in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) if we go by President Xi Jinping\u2019s speech at the recently concluded Communist Party of China (CPC) 19th National Congress.<\/p>\n

According to Xinhua, President Xi \u201cannounced the new era: China has stood up, grown rich and become strong. It will move toward center stage and make greater contributions for mankind. By 2050\u2026.China is set to regain its might and re-ascend to the top of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Congress has elevated President Xi Jinping\u2019s status on par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping by adopting \u201cXism\u201d \u2013 Socialism with Chinese characteristics for the New Era \u2013 as its creed. With the Congress making Xi to head the country, the party and the PLA for yet another term, he combines enormous power. He is perhaps exemplifying poet William Cowper\u2019s words \u201cI am monarch of all I survey, My right there is none to dispute, From the centre of all round to the sea, I am lord of the fowl and the horde.\u201d In simple terms, Xi now has a free hand to relentlessly push, to make China truly the Middle Kingdom and realise the China dream.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The CPC Congress has also amended the party constitution to include One Belt One Road initiative (including 21st Century Maritime Silk Road) making it an important strategic vehicle to \u201cmove toward the centre stage.\u201d The OBOR amendment passed, ignoring the objections of India and the US and Japan, indicates Xi\u2019s determination to fulfil his strategic vision in the face of big power objections. <\/p>\n

The China-Pakistan strategic alliance is likely to become an important vehicle of China\u2019s strategic thrust in South Asia and IOR. The mega China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure project is rapidly improving China\u2019s land access to Gwadar port on Arabian Sea coast. This would make it a vital strategic asset for China\u2019s articulation of the 21st century maritime silk route. With China\u2019s help Pakistan is improving its naval assets and maritime infrastructure in Gwadar to handle the threat of Indian Navy\u2019s domination of IOR.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s relations with China continue to be haunted by trust deficit, though both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi have repeatedly stressed peaceful development as their objective. China\u2019s periodic acts of belligerence like the recent military confrontation in Doklam Plateau on India-Bhutan-China border has not helped the situation, though India-China trade is growing exponentially, heavily weighted in favour of China.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Narendra Modi\u2019s vision for Indian Ocean articulated in 2015 which includes the SAGAR (Security And Growth for All) has to be viewed in this emerging strategic scene backed by his \u2018neighbourhood first\u2019 policy. The initiative is holistic and addresses issues relating to economic revival, connectivity, security, culture and identity. India\u2019s strengthening of relations with Sri Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Seychelles and Bangladesh is part of this strategic initiative. Indian Navy\u2019s acquisition of naval assets from the US \u2013 particularly P8 reconnaissance aircraft and landing craft country as well as development of missile capabilities \u2013 point to India\u2019s determination to protect the IOR.<\/p>\n

India\u2019s Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj speaking at the 2nd Indian Ocean Conference in Colombo in August 2017 emphasized that for the Indian Ocean economic revival to be sustainable, the waters must not only be better connected, but they should remain free from non-traditional and traditional threats. She also added that it was imperative that all stakeholders abide by a rule-based global order. Apparently, she was hinting at China defiance of UN laws of the sea by ignoring the international arbitration tribunal ruling against China\u2019s illegal development of disputed islets in South China Sea.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s maritime assets created in the IOR, including Hambantota, extend now from Djibouti on the West to South China Sea. This is disturbing not only India\u2019s strategic construct but also the US, Japan, and its Pacific allies. They are coming together to build their collective strengths to challenge to China\u2019s westward march in Asia and the IOR. With these moves, the centre of gravity of global strategic power is shifting slowly to IOR.<\/p>\n

PM Narendra Modi and Japan\u2019s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe enjoy close rapport in shaping India-Japan strategic relationship. Towards a Free, Open and Prosperous Indo-Pacific \u2013 the title of the joint statement issued during PM Shinzo Abe\u2019s visit to India on September 14, 2017 eloquently underlines the strategic focus of the relationship between the two countries.<\/p>\n

Japan government spokesman explaining the concept said the \u2018Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy\u2019 rested on \u201ctwo oceans\u201d \u2013 Indian and Pacific \u2013 and \u201ctwo continents\u201d \u2013 Africa and Asia. He said the new strategy was aimed at preparing Japan to deal with the fast changing global and regional order and threats from China and North Korea, based on \u201cdiplomacy that takes a panoramic view of the world map.\u201d It was to create a free and open Asia-Pacific region which connects pars of eastern Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia with Western Pacific Ocean region and Japan.<\/p>\n

Indo-US strategic relations have matured in tandem with the growth of their shared goals in keeping the ocean ways open and free and ending the scourge of jihadi terror. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed India\u2019s role in ensuring the Indian Ocean remains free and safe for international shipping. The US is also revamping its Pakistan policy after it has shown reluctance in reining in jihadi terrorists operating against India and Afghanistan. Significantly, US has opened the access to defence technology to India, which would make sea change in the country\u2019s China-centric military capability in land, air and sea.<\/p>\n

Thanks to its geographic location, Sri Lanka may find itself in the eye of the storm, when the winds of change blowing in IOR get too strong. The pulls and pressures of strategic jockeying for power in the IOR may well prove too complex for Sri Lanka. <\/p>\n

Sushma Swaraj explained India\u2019s inclusive view of the Indian Ocean \u201cas an engine for growth and prosperity in our region and beyond, it is of utmost importance that those who live in this region bear the primary responsibility for the peace, stability and prosperity of the Indian Ocean.\u201d So Sri Lanka views will continue influence India\u2019s IOR strategies because both the nations are Indian Ocean powers too close to ignore each other\u2019s interests. <\/p>\n


\n(Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia, served as the head of Intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka from 1987 to 90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the International Law and Strategic Analysis Institute, Chennai)<\/em><\/p>\n

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By Col R.Hariharan It looks like Sri Lanka\u2019s balancing act in the China-India power play in the Indian Ocean is going to get more and more difficult the coming months and years. China\u2019s assertion of economic and military power is poised to grow stronger in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) if we go by President …<\/p>\n

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