{"id":42818,"date":"2015-08-22T20:58:52","date_gmt":"2015-08-23T00:58:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=42818"},"modified":"2015-08-22T20:58:52","modified_gmt":"2015-08-23T00:58:52","slug":"4-7-million-slfpupfa-voters-seem-to-have-acted-in-unison-to-eliminate-virtually-all-who-were-perceived-as-sirisena-loyalists","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=42818","title":{"rendered":"4.7 Million SLFP\/UPFA Voters Seem to have Acted in Unison to Eliminate Virtually All who were Perceived as Sirisena Loyalists."},"content":{"rendered":"

By<\/p>\n

C.A.Chandraprema<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sri Lankan political history can be described in terms of cycles. The first parliamentary election of 1947 saw the beginning of a cycle dominated by the UNP which ended in 1956. The domination of the SLFP which began in 1956 ended in 1965. The UNP had a short run from 1965 to 1970 and in 1970 the SLFP came in for a short run and lost again to the UNP in 1977. This was followed by a long period of UNP domination until 1994.<\/p>\n

From there onwards we had a long period dominated by the SLFP until 2015 with a 30 month UNP blip between 2001 and 2004. Whether the change that began in January this year will become a period of UNP domination will depend on how skillfully the UNP handles things from now on. While how the UNP will fare is yet to be seen, one thing that is certain is that the SLFP is in a state of serious decline and it will be an uphill struggle for that party to recover even after the Maithripala Sirisena presidency ends.<\/p>\n

In the run-up to the election there was visible turbulence in the SLFP\/UPFA which obviously had a devastating impact on their electoral prospects. The president\u2019s address to the nation where he said that Mahinda Rajapaksa will be defeated, the open letter that he sent to Mahinda Rajapaksa a few days before the election saying that even if the UPFA won, he would not be made prime minister and the drastic step of sacking the general secretaries of the SLFP and the UPFA on the eve of the election all dampened the spirit of the pro-Mahinda voters and resulted in a reduction of votes that the party got. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

One can see from the election result that only the hard core SLFP\/Left voters had gone to vote. The peripheral voters kept away possibly due to despondency. The remarkable fact is that 4.7 million voters appear to have worked in unison to eliminate almost all those who were seen to be Sirisena loyalists. Only a few like Duminda Dissanayake and Ranjith Siyambalapitiya managed to survive with a vastly diminished vote.<\/p>\n

Despite all this turbulence in the SLFP, the fact that the election result was so close set off alarms in the UNP. In the aftermath of the election there were secretive attempts at forming a UPFA government under the president. Just 24 hours after the results were announced, an article appeared on the pro-UNP website Lanka News Web (which played a major role in the yahapalana election campaign in January and was specifically thanked by Chandrika Kumaratunga for their efforts) with the title “Ranil defeats the conspiracy”. The brief article went as follows: “The conspiracy of forming a government with a pro- Maithri group has been thwarted and the UNP was able to get the help of few UPFA members and form a government ensuring the majority. The group is reported to be a 20 member squad. However the president has not given a date yet for the new Prime Minister and the cabinet to take oaths.” By the time that article appeared, the prime minister\u2019s swearing in had been postponed twice.<\/p>\n

In another article on another pro-UNP website Lanka e News last Thursday, they said that the yahapalana voter has rewarded Champika Ranawaka for his oratory, his skilful manipulation of the media and his uncompromising opposition to the Rajapaksas. The columnist goes on to say that Champika, Rajitha, Arjuna, Hirunika and Rajitha\u2019s son should not forget that they were elected to parliament on the votes of pro-yahapalana UNP voters and that if they become tools of the president and go against the UNP again the way they did after January 8, the people who brought them into power will not wait for five years to respond to them.<\/p>\n

The UNP had good reason to be concerned. The difference between the UNP and the UPFA was just 11 seats. About 20 of the MPs elected on the UNP list are not really UNP at all, but members of affiliated parties, these include members of the SLMC, ACMC, the newly formed Tamil alliance between Mano Ganesan, Radhakrishnan and Digambaram, and the defectors from the UPFA who contested on the UNP list. If these people shifted their allegiance to the UPFA led by Maithripala Sirisena, they could easily have formed a government with a clear majority. This is why the UNP had a couple of tension filled days before Ranil Wickremesinghe was finally made prime minister.<\/p>\n

One of the key clauses of the MOU signed by UNP and the SLFP is not to allow any crossovers till the two year period is over. What happens after that? The question that we have to ask ourselves is, can constitutionally determined term limits and mandates won at an election, be \u2018adjusted\u2019 through MOUs entered into between political parties? In 1994, the PA got only 105 seats and they ruled the country for six years straight. If the UNP got 106 seats, then they should remain in power for the five years laid down in the constitution. The MOU just signed goes against the grain of the concept of popular sovereignty as well because RW was clearly asking for a 60 month (five year) mandate in the election campaign and the people gave it to him. Even after the two year national government ends, it should be the UNP that runs the country until the next election.<\/p>\n

Sunanda Deshapriya\u2019s call for mayhem<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is no shortage of advice being offered to the new government. Sunanda Deshapriya\u2019s article on the pro-UNP Lanka News Web last Wednesday \u2013 the day after the election – is a case in point. He was offering advice to both President Sirisena and the UNP. According to Sunanda, the first challenge that Sirisena has to face is that the SLFP has been turned into a party of \u2018Rajapaksa slaves\u2019. He says that the number of votes that the Rajapaksa loyalists got and the manner in which the opponents of Rajapaksa were eliminated at the elections shows that the pro-Rajapaksa faction completely dominates the popular base of the SLFP. Deshapriya says that the main challenge that Sirisena faces is \u2018rescuing\u2019 the SLFP from the clutches of the Rajapaksas.<\/p>\n

Deshapriya\u2019s advice to Sirisena is that to fight wolves you have to behave like wolves and he expresses his approbation at the fact that Sirisena himself appears to have realized this. He states that when a mad dog falls into a river you have to beat it so that it can\u2019t come out again and that it is Sirisena\u2019s duty to ensure that the Rajapaksas will not be able to come out again. Deshapriya says that the first step for a leader to fight his enemies is to build a good team of supporters and that Sirisena\u2019s success will depend on how successfully he builds up such a team. The second challenge is to build a government of co-existence with Ranil Wickremesinghe. He also states that Sirisena does not have much time to establish control over the SLFP because the local government elections that were postponed earlier this year are coming up soon and this will be a litmus test of his leadership.<\/p>\n

The method that Deshapriya recommends to wrest control of the SLFP from Rajapaksa loyalists is to expedite investigations into corruption and certain incidents and to mete out punishments soon. He expresses his disappointment that the presidential commission to investigate corruption has hardly got off the ground and that only the FCID has been doing anything worthwhile and that there should be no further delay in jailing Rajapaksa loyalists. He also recommends that cases like that of the disappearance of Prageeth Ekneligoda, the Raviraj assassination, Shashi Weerawansa\u2019s \u2018hora\u2019 passports, the Siriliya Saviya bank account, Johnston\u2019s illicit arrack business, should be brought before courts and that special courts should be established for the purpose of trying such cases. Deshapriya adds that such action should be taken not just to clean up the SLFP but also to ensure that such things do not happen in the future too. Deshapriya warns that it would be a fatal mistake to think that the Rajapaksa loyalists will accept this defeat and keep quiet.<\/p>\n

In other words, Sunanda Deshapriya was recommending a full scale 1994 to 2001 CBK-like course of action with investigations, cases and the jailing of members of the defeated party. Chandrika Kumaratunga had the distinction of being the main creator of political instability in the country during her first period in government between 1994 and 2001. Political instability is the last thing that this government can afford. The Achilles heel of this government is the economy. Investors are obviously nervous and are watching out keenly for positive or negative signs. After the first day of trading in the Colombo Stock Exchange last Wednesday following the announcement of the results of the parliamentary election, The Island was to report in a story tellingly titled “Unmoved by election result bourse closes nearly flat” that “The election of a government widely perceived as business friendly did not reflect on the Colombo bourse yesterday where… the ASPI ended flat gaining a fraction of a point…”<\/p>\n

The Bourse recovered somewhat after RW took office as PM but a wait-and-see attitude with intermittent boosts in confidence followed by slumps has been the general pattern since January this year. Investor confidence has been waxing and waning depending on the events on the political front. Nobody will say that we have been having a bull run since January. It hasn\u2019t been completely bearish either. Everybody is waiting and observing the unfolding situation. And these are just the short term, more liquid form of investments where investors can pull out in a short time if necessary. More fixed investments will require a much greater degree of stability. A day after the parliamentary election, Fitch ratings observed that \u2018greater clarity over economic policy matters more for credit ratings than the party composition of Sri Lanka\u2019s next Government\u2019. Fitch complained that \u2018the direction of economic policy and the stability of the likely coalition remain unclear\u2019 and that though \u2018the new administration inaugurated in January under President Maithripala Sirisena has made some progress in addressing perceived governance shortcomings, there has been no corresponding strengthening in economic management. <\/p>\n

Fitch also observed that a populist budget was introduced in February that raised public sector wages and reduced publicly administered prices and that the 2014 budget deficit was higher than previously thought, owing to revenue shortfalls which indicates that fiscal consolidation has stalled. The new government that came into power in January was meeting the shortfall in government revenue through borrowings. Fitch warned that Sri Lanka has the fourth-highest share of Government debt \u2013 72% of GDP \u2013 of any country in the \u2018BB\u2019 range, after Portugal, Hungary and Croatia. Fitch also observed wild fluctuations in the external reserves which had dropped sharply to USD 6.8 billion by end-May 2015 from USD 7.5 billion a month earlier. And that the authorities indicated that reserves had been bolstered back up to USD 7.5 billion by end-June through a USD 650 million sovereign dollar debt issue and USD 338 million Sri Lanka Development Bond, though the latest data for end-July show reserves had fallen back down to USD 6.9 billion.\u2019 External liquidity has been buffered by a USD 1.1 billion swap facility with the Reserve Bank of India in July. Fitch observed that “These factors have buffered external liquidity recently, though it is not a sustainable way of improving the stability of the external accounts”.<\/p>\n

Given the fragile state of the economy, creating any kind of political turbulence is not in the interests of the new UNP led government. The kind of advice given by Sunanda Deshapriya is guaranteed to create the very political instability that the new government should avoid. Barely 48 hours after the election ended opposition politicians Udaya Gammanpila, Wimal Weerawansa, his wife Shahi have been hauled to the FCID. Gota has been summoned by the Presidential Commission to probe corruption. The sight of opposition politicians being hauled before the police and taken to courts and remanded is not going to conduce to creating an impression of political stability in this country. Such activities will have immediate repercussions in the form of an atmosphere of political tension which is bad for the economy as well as reprisals that will inevitably come years later.<\/p>\n

Sunanda Deshapriya\u2019s call for mayhem contrasts with the sentiments expressed by UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe on the day the results were announced where he said that”There should not be a division amongst people as winners and losers. We should get together as the sons and daughters of our motherland to the task of building a new political culture in this country. Let us together build a civilized society, build a consensual government and create a new country..” That kind of sentiment may be more in consonance with what the economy requires.<\/p>\n


\n UPFA\u2019s mandate stood on its head<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is no such thing as democracy within any political party. But what we saw in the SLFP during and after this parliamentary election campaign was extreme and unprecedented even in this country. Never has the leader of a political party made verbal and written public statements calling for the defeat of his own party on the eve of an election. Never have general secretaries of political parties been sacked in the middle of an election. Never have central committee members of any political party been sacked by the dozen on election as happened in the case of the 13 members of the SLFP central committee. The sackings have continued even after the elections with Kumara Welgama, Pavithra Wanniarachchi and S.M.Chandrasena being barred from representing the SLFP on the UPFA executive committee.<\/p>\n

Never has there been a purge of senior members of a political party like this. All this is of course good news for the UNP because it is unlikely that the SLFP will be able to recover from these blows any time soon. On top of all this, the fact that the new powers that be in the UPFA have stuffed the national list with defeated candidates will certainly not go down well with the public. If Sirisena insists on these defeated candidates being given ministerial portfolios in the UNP-led government, that will even taint the UNP led government. The UNP for its part has in a very principled stand refused to appoint defeated candidates on the national list.<\/p>\n

Sirisena is perhaps trying to show that he will go out of his way to look after those who took his side which is why he is appointing candidates who lost because they were with him. But he is doing it in a manner that will drive the SLFP into the ground. He has wrested control of the SLFP central committee by appointing his loyalists to it in place of the veterans he sacked. The newly constituted central committee has decided that the SLFP will join up with the UNP for a national government lasting two years and all members of the SLFP have been told to fall in line or risk losing their party memberships. According to Article 99(13) of the constitution, the loss of party membership results in a loss of one\u2019s parliamentary seat as well. Any member thus expelled can however petition the Supreme Court challenging his expulsion and the SC is obliged to deliver their judgment on the matter within a period of two months. The question now for the MPs of the SLFP and the UPFA is how to escape this trap of joining a national government with the UNP?<\/p>\n

For those in the UPFA who have any expectation of continuing in politics beyond the next five years, joining a UNP led government will not be a palatable option given what happened to the Sirisena loyalists who joined the UNP government earlier. The voting public always divides as pro-government and anti-government. The anti-government vote is not going to become pro-government simply because politicians enter into various deals. Becoming ministers may enable politicians to dole out patronage and that was the calculation on which some ventured to accept portfolios in the UNP led government earlier. But that did not enable them to win the preferences of anti-government voters.<\/p>\n

On the day of the parliamentary election, the pro-yahapalana website Colombo Telegraph carried a lead story titled \u2018The dictator in Sirisena comes to the party\u2019. The article was about the purge of 13 members of the SLFP central committee on the day of the election and to the sacking of Susil Premajayantha and Anura Priyadarshana Yapa from the position of UPFA and SLFP general secretary. The Colombo Telegraph article also stated as follows: “…advocates of good governance and democracy opine that the move as well as its timing cast doubts on Sirisena\u2019s commitment to doing things differently after deposing Mahinda Rajapaksa as President. He is acting as though he owns the party in the first place. Also, these highhanded moves have come at a time when his party is in the midst of an election. Finally, it raises suspicion that Sirisena\u2019s thinking is dominated by antipathy to Rajapaksa rather than the affirming of democratic principles and spirit,\u2019 a long standing democracy advocate who wished to remain anonymous told Colombo Telegraph.”<\/p>\n

We began this column with the anxieties expressed by the two pro-UNP websites Lanka e News and Lanka News Web in the 48 hours after the election. These articles that appeared on unequivocally pro-yahapalana and pro-UNP websites will be the main political concerns of this country in the coming months. We will know which way things are going in the next few days. As at the time of writing, the cabinet has not yet been appointed even though the prime minister has been sworn in. According to the 19th Amendment it is the president in consultation with the prime minister \u2018where deemed necessary\u2019 who will decide on the number of ministries and the allocation of subjects. But when it comes to the appointment of MPs to head such ministries, the president has to make those appointments on the advice of the prime minister. However the president can make any changes he likes in the composition of the cabinet at any time. How smoothly the process of appointing the cabinet goes will determine the political stability of this country at least for the duration of the two year national government.<\/p>\n

As we conclude this column on Saturday, we hear of more sackings by President Sirisena with T.B.Ekanayake being sacked from the UPFA executive committee. Even greater cause for concern is a headline article on Lanka e News furiously announcing to the public that the abolition of the executive presidency has been quietly dropped from the MOU that was signed on Friday between the UNP and the SLFP. LeN states that before the August 17 election, the UNP entered into an MOU with Ven Maduluwawe Sobitha and 161 trade unions and other organizations that the very first clause in that agreement called for the total abolition of the executive presidency. <\/p>\n

LeN says that the MOU that was signed by the UNP and SLFP on Friday was drafted by an SLFP team and that it was Nimal Siripala de Silva who had dropped the clause about the abolition of the executive presidency from the MOU. They have described at great length how Champika Ranawaka sabotaged the 19th Amendment and prevented the abolition of the executive presidency. Lanka e News is a pro-UNP website that expresses what the UNP hierarchy cannot say directly. If LeN is worried about the way things are going, so should we.<\/p>\n

Courtesy:Sunday Island<\/em><\/p>\n

Tweet<\/a><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By C.A.Chandraprema Sri Lankan political history can be described in terms of cycles. The first parliamentary election of 1947 saw the beginning of a cycle dominated by the UNP which ended in 1956. The domination of the SLFP which began in 1956 ended in 1965. The UNP had a short run from 1965 to 1970 …<\/p>\n

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