{"id":41742,"date":"2015-06-17T15:23:29","date_gmt":"2015-06-17T19:23:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=41742"},"modified":"2015-06-17T15:23:29","modified_gmt":"2015-06-17T19:23:29","slug":"president-sirisena-rests-on-top-of-political-volcano-threatening-to-erupt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=41742","title":{"rendered":"President Sirisena \u201cRests\u201d on top of Political Volcano Threatening to Erupt"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

By<\/p>\n

Rasika Jayakody<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Maithripala Sirisena is resting on the crest of a volcano nearly two months after the end of his 100 day programme.<\/p>\n

The main stakeholder of his ruling coalition, the United National Party, has exerted pressure on the President to dissolve Parliament immediately to seek a fresh mandate for a government. The UNP is likely to write a letter to the President requesting him to make a quick decision in this regard. <\/p>\n

The letter comes as a result of the UNP\u2019s Working Committee meeting where the WC members unanimously agreed to go for an immediate dissolution, without waiting for the passage of 20th Amendment in the present Parliament.<\/p>\n

The other stakeholders of the government, including the SLFP group supporting President Maithripala Sirisena and the Jathika Hela Uurumaya, are pushing for the postponement of Parliament\u2019s dissolution.<\/p>\n

The main justification behind their demand is the 20th Amendment to the constitution, which is yet to be gazetted. They stress that the 20th Amendment should be passed in the present Parliament in which the UNP does not wield a majority.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

However, the key issue at the moment is the absence of a concrete agreement among political parties with regard to electoral reforms. Although the Cabinet meeting held on Friday decided to increase the number of seats in Parliament to 237, the UNP Working Committee decided that the party did not want to deviate from its position on a 225 MP legislature. The UNP Working Committee\u2019s decision indicated that the 237 MP legislature was mainly the brainchild of the SLFP \u201cMaithripala group\u201d.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, The JHU and a section of the SLFP want to further increase the number of seats in Parliament. According to JHU National Organizer Nishantha Sri Warnasinghe the JHU wants a legislature of 255 MPs- a proposal that that has already displeased the UNP and several other political parties. It is learnt that plans are afoot to move the proposal on a 255 MP Parliament at the committee stage of the amendment. Despite the UNP\u2019s resistance, the JHU can still include this proposal in the final amendment if the party can secure a simple majority in Parliament for a 255 MP legislature.<\/p>\n

The JVP, a party that was a pillar of support for President Maithripala Sirisena at the last Presidential election, states that electoral reforms should not be rushed as there is no concrete agreement among political parties over the matter. The JVP too backs the immediate dissolution of Parliament. The UNP and the JVP more or less are on the same page when it comes to electoral reforms.<\/p>\n

Minor parties join hands to resist at present form of 20 A<\/strong>
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Apart from these main political camps, minor parties too have joined hands to show their resistance to the \u201cpresent form\u201d of the 2oth Amendment. Their main demand is the introduction of a dual ballot paper system to ensure a fair representation for minorities. At least 18 minor political parties, who met for a special meeting in Colombo on Sunday night, agreed to stick to their demands for the introduction of a dual ballot paper method and holding the next general election under the prevailing electoral system. The meeting was held at \u201cDarussalam\u201d, the headquarters of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress.<\/p>\n

The minor parties have threatened to withdraw their support to the 20th Amendment to the Constitution if their concerns are not addressed. At the same time, minor parties have demanded a discussion with relevant parties – including the President – to iron out differences before the 20th Amendment to the constitution is gazetted. Some key Cabinet members of the UNP also support the double ballot paper system saying it has been successfully adopted in countries like New Zealand to strengthen Parliamentary democracy. The dual ballot paper will introduce one ballot paper for the candidate and one ballot paper for the party. Although it may seem like a complicated system at the first sight, it has shown success in other parts of the world.<\/p>\n

\u201cVotes to candidate swill immediately be calculated to choose the MP for the polling division while the vote to party will be calculated on a national basis. This system will enable the voters to use one vote to elect his or her candidate and use the other vote to select his or her preferred party The voters are at peace selecting the right and capable person of their choice for their electorates while expressing loyalty to their political parties. This is an exercise that will add more meaning to the electoral process\u201d Democratic National Front Leader Mano Ganeshan told the Daily News explaining the double ballot paper system.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have decided to refrain from supporting the 20A if it does not contain the double ballot paper system,\u201d Ganesan said.<\/p>\n

The SLMC has already threated to file action before the Supreme Court against the 20th Amendment if other political parties decide to \u201cbulldoze\u201d its views on the matter. At the meeting held on Sunday night, several other political parties too had stated that they would go before the Supreme Court if the government attempted to proceed with the 20th Amendment in present form.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have asked us to give our consent to the present document and then present our suggestions. The moment we give our consent to the present document, they will bulldoze our views and proceed with electoral reforms. So, our only option will be to go before Supreme Court against the constitutional amendment,\u201d SLMC General Secretary Hassan Ali told the Daily News.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have one fundamental requirement. Muslims, as a community, should have at least 10 percent of seats in Parliament. For instance, if they are talking about a 237 MP legislature, 23 MPs should be Muslims. Measures, such as multi-member seats, should be introduced to ensure a fair representation for Muslims,
\n\u201cThe President when presenting the latest proposal on the 20A said that he wanted a Parliament member for every electorate and he also wanted the much maligned proportional representation system abolished. We too support these moves fully; however by doing so we cannot allow minority representation in parliament to be diluted\u201d Ali added. Cabinet members representing minorities, such as ACMC Leader Rishad Bathiudeen and P. Digambaram also back these proposals. This has created a lot of uncertainty about the future of the 20th Amendment.<\/p>\n

However, the Jathika Hela Urumaya and a section of the SLFP are keen on proceeding with the 20th Amendment in present form without the double ballot paper system. The JHU seems to be the chief architect behind the \u201cpresent form\u201d of 20th Amendment and it repeatedly accuses other parties of attempting to sabotage the whole process. The JHU says that the UNP wants to \u201cscuttle\u201d electoral system as the PR system is advantageous to the UNP and its political interests.<\/p>\n

Of course the PR system was introduced by the UNP and it was the brainchild of Lalith Athulathmudali, an influential Cabinet Minister under President J.R. Jayewardene\u2019s administration. It is na\u00efve to believe that Athulathmudali did not take the UNP\u2019s political interests into consideration when formulating the new electoral system. By the time the PR system was introduced the UNP was the largest political party in the country and the SLFP, which was in the opposition, was in disarray. In that context, many believed that the PR system would allow the UNP to perpetuate in power.<\/p>\n


\nWill PR system benefit UNP at next election?<\/strong><\/p>\n

However, following the introduction of the PR system, the ruling UNP survived only one election. The party managed to secure victory at the Parliamentary election in 1988 which was crippled due to violence in every nook and corner of the country. Six years later, in 1994, the UNP suffered a defeat at the second Parliamentary election held under the PR system. The outcome of the General election demonstrated that there was no real basis to the argument on the PR system being linked to the UNP\u2019s political interests.<\/p>\n

Over the past 20 years, the UNP lost three Parliamentary elections under the PR system. The most disastrous defeat came in 2010 when the Party\u2019s \u2018Parliamentary share\u2019 plummeted to 60 while the UPFA gained a resounding majority with over 140 seats. In fact, after the introduction of the PR system, the UNP has won only two Parliamentary elections while the SLFP-led coalitions have won four times (1994, 2000, 2004, 2010). The outcome of elections always depended on the \u2018mood\u2019 of the political moment rather than the system under which the election was held.<\/p>\n

When the \u2018mood\u2019 of the political moment was advantageous for the UNP, the party secured a mammoth victory in 1977 with a resounding majority in Parliament despite the election being held under the First Past the Post (FPP) system. In the same way, the SLFP led United Front secured a two thirds majority in Parliament in 1970 under the FPP system while the UNP obtained only 14 seats.<\/p>\n

The PR system made two major impacts on the country\u2019s political fold. It always secured a \u2018proportionate\u2019 outcome for the main opposition, without bulldozing the political interests of those who voted for the opposition. Even in 1977, nearly 30 percent of the country\u2019s registered voters voted for the SLFP although the party secured only 8 seats in Parliament. The TULF led by Amirthalingam secured 16 seats in Parliament when the party\u2019s overall percentage stood at 6.75%. The UNP, which obtained 140 out of 168 seats in Parliament, had an overall percentage barely above 50. The post of Opposition Leader was held not by the party leader who received 30 percent of the country\u2019s total votes, but by the party leader who received 6.75 percent. Therefore, one could easily argue that the people\u2019s mandate was distorted in Parliament under the old electoral system. This was corrected when the UNP introduced the PR system.<\/p>\n

While correcting this \u2018distortion of mandate\u2019, the PR system also allowed unscrupulous elements to find their way into Parliament. Wheeler-dealers, political cronies and hooligans made themselves eligible to represent the country\u2019s legislature by spending colossal amounts of money during elections. Honest, principled and educated politicians fell by the wayside as they could not compete with those who had enormous spending power. This negative trend reached its zenith over the past five years and it can easily be observed when analyzing recent developments in Parliament.<\/p>\n

At this point, any disproportionate increase in the number of seats elected under the FPP system will make way for distortion of people\u2019s mandate in Parliament \u2013 a characteristic of the country\u2019s election history since 1947. That is the importance of retaining a 225 member legislature with a good balance between MPs elected under the FPP system and the PR system. On June 08, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe presented a proposal to the Cabinet suggesting a 225 MP legislature with 125 MPs elected under the FPP system and 75 MPs elected under the PR system. The 125:75 proportion proposed by the Prime Minister would mitigate negative impacts of both electoral systems when determining \u201cparliamentary stakes\u201d after election. Although the Cabinet decided to proceed with the Prime Minister\u2019s proposal on Monday, it was shot down a few days later, probably due to the influence of the JHU and the SLFP group supporting President Maithripala Sirisena. It was later reported that JHU General Secretary Patali Champika Ranawaka was the staunchest critique of the 225 MP legislature.<\/p>\n

The most reasonable arrangement at this point is a 225 MP legislature (125 FPP: 75 PR: 25 National List) with a double ballot paper system to accommodate needs of ethnic and religious minorities. It will not burden the public with additional seats while reflecting the \u201ctrue mandate\u201d of the people in Parliament. If the present developments are something to go by, it is clear that a \u201csane\u201d arrangement of that nature is unlikely to see the light of day.<\/p>\n


\nJHU\u2019s real intention behind electoral reforms<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is interesting to examine the JHU\u2019s move to formulate an electoral system that gives more weight to the FPP system without corrective measures like double ballot paper system that will cater to the needs of ethnic and religious minorities. It is no secret that certain JHU stalwarts are positioning themselves as \u2018future leaders\u2019 of the country and they consider national level elections in 2020 as their prime target. For an ultra-nationalist political movement like the JHU, \u2018absolute power\u2019 is a major requirement when it comes to governance. This trait can be observed in almost all ultra-nationalist leaders who were at the helm of politics throughout history. Disproprtionate increase in the number of seats elected under the FPP system will make way for a government that has “absolute power” in Parliament, probably after five or six years from now.<\/p>\n

The SLFP group supporting President Maithripala Sirisena considers electoral reforms as a time-buying exercise to mitigate the impact of the Rajapaksa factor. That is a flawed calculation as the pro-Rajapaksa group is already capitalizing on their time-buying efforts. By delaying the dissolution of Parliament in the guise of electoral reforms, the SLFP group supporting President Sirisena is actually playing into the hands of the pro-Rajapaksa campaign. Meanwhile, another school of thought existing among the SLFP MP Maithripala group is that holding the next Parliamentary election under the new electoral system would be disadvantageous to the pro-Rajapaksa campaign. They think they still have time and space to conduct the next election under the new electoral system as the present Parliament\u2019s official term ends in mid-2016. <\/p>\n

When there is a new electoral system, they think, the pro-Rajapaksa campaign will not be able to capitalize on the \u201cindividual popularity\u201d of the former President Rajapaksa. On the other hand, most of the MPs of the pro-Rajapaksa campaign faced serious bribery and corruption allegations in the recent past and that affected their individual popularity- to a great extent. If and when the Parliamentary election is held under the new election, they will face problems in their own electorates due to corruption charges. At the same time, the pro-Rajapaksa does camp not have the capacity to field popular and well-established politicians to contest a national level election where political parties compete on an all-island basis. This must be the thinking behind President Sirisena\u2019s inclination to proceed with electoral reforms at this juncture, despite calls for immediate dissolution of Parliament.<\/p>\n

However, the problem lies in the fact that most of the political parties \u2013 including the UNP, the JVP and a host of minor parties – do not want the next election to be held under the new electoral system. Their argument is that the public requires more time to familiarize themselves with the new electoral system and the Elections Department should be given adequate time to finalize delimitation. \u201cWhen you rush electoral reforms, you will only come up with a half-baked system that has various loopholes and anomalies. It will not serve the purpose of our political reforms. We, as members of the House, should not allow that to happen,\u201d a UNP Parliamentarian told the Daily News on Tuesday.<\/p>\n

The SLFP Parliamentary group supporting President Sirisena and the JHU believe that they can \u201ccircumvent\u201d this resistance by making a last minute reform at the committee stage to hold the next election under the new system. However, it is hard to believe that this proposal will draw the support of the majority as all the other political parties \u2013 including the group supporting former President Rajapaksa \u2013 are against such a move. If they fail in this attempt at the last moment, they will have to pay a big price as it will give time and space for the pro-Rajapaksa campaign to gather more momentum. It will be a moment of self-victimization for the SLFP MPs supporting President Maithripala Sirisena.<\/p>\n


\nUPFA challenges mandate of Presidential election<\/strong><\/p>\n

President Maithripala Sirisena has arrived at a juncture where he has to understand the nature of his mandate. It was not only the Rajapaksa factor that was defeated at the election. The theme of the Common Opposition\u2019s campaign was \u201cChange\u201d and it was for a change that 6.2 million voted at the election.
\nThose who voted for a change wanted a comprehensive change in the system of governance. They were fed up with the state of lawlessness of the country and the culture of impunity. They also wanted to change flawed policies adopted by the Rajapaksa administration. They were sick of political appointees who plagued the country\u2019s state sector and ruling party politicians who were key players behind \u2018mega-deals\u2019 and all forms of malpractices. The public resistance against the Rajapaksa regime reached its culmination when Maithripala Sirisena chose to step out of the government with the promise of ushering in a new era.<\/p>\n

The Common Opposition realized \u2018comprehensive change\u2019 the public needed could not be achieved by merely changing the Head of State. That was why the election manifesto of President Sirisena pledged to appoint UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as the Prime Minister immediately after the election. Therefore, those who supported and voted for President Maithripala Sirisena knew that the Prime Minister of the Maithripala Sirisena administration would be Ranil Wickremesinghe. It does not require a lot of wisdom to understand that Ranil Wickremesinghe cannot be appointed as the Prime Minister of a UPFA government. Wickremesinghe needed a UNP-led government to function as the Prime Minister of the country. It was on that basis that a UNP \u2013led Cabinet was appointed after President Maithripala Sirisena\u2019s ascension to power. At the same time, several key ministerial portfolios were given to other parties who supporter President Sirisena\u2019s election campaign. It was warranted by the mandate expressed at the election and the new government was appointed for a limited time-frame to introduce much needed democratic reforms. Sirisena\u2019s election manifesto itself stated that Parliament would be dissolved on April 23 after the completion of his 100 day programme.<\/p>\n

It is against this backdrop that the UPFA is urging President Sirisena to form a UPFA-led government. The UPFA whose campaign was defeated by the majority of voters just four months ago is now exerting pressure on President Sirisena to deviate from the mandate and form a new government. Such a move will \u2018distort\u2019 the aspirations of the people expressed at the Presidential election in January. That is exactly why a Parliamentary election is needed at this juncture to allow public to select its legislature, without giving way to daily \u2018Tamashas\u2019 taking place inside the \u2018Diyawanna complex\u2019. <\/p>\n

Courtesy:Daily News<\/em><\/p>\n

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By Rasika Jayakody President Maithripala Sirisena is resting on the crest of a volcano nearly two months after the end of his 100 day programme. The main stakeholder of his ruling coalition, the United National Party, has exerted pressure on the President to dissolve Parliament immediately to seek a fresh mandate for a government. The …<\/p>\n

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