{"id":39142,"date":"2015-03-03T18:18:09","date_gmt":"2015-03-03T23:18:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=39142"},"modified":"2015-03-03T22:07:21","modified_gmt":"2015-03-04T03:07:21","slug":"china-sri-lanka-india-triangular-relationship-means-india-formalising-chinas-entry-into-its-strategic-space-and-losing-dominant-role-in-sri-lanka-and-indian-ocean","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=39142","title":{"rendered":"China-Sri Lanka-India Triangular relationship Means India Formalising China’s entry into its Strategic Space and Losing Dominant Role in Sri Lanka and Indian Ocean"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Col R Hariharan<\/strong><\/p>\n

[This is the text updated on March 2, 2015 of the presentation made at a national seminar on \u201cUnderstanding China \u2013 Indian perspective\u201d<\/strong> organised jointly by the Chennai Centre for China Studies, and Institute for China Studies and the Nelson Mandela chair for Afro-Asian Studies, Mahatma Gandhi University at Kottyam on February 27 and 28, 2015.]
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

\"CHSLIFL\"<\/a><\/p>\n

China\u2019s ambition to further its interests in Sri Lanka has suffered a setback after people elected the common opposition candidate Maithripala Sirisena as President in preference to two-term President Mahinda Rajapaksa in the election held in January 2015. <\/p>\n

China is probably familiar with President Sirisena as he had served as a senior minister and close aide of Rajapaksa during the last ten years. He was high in the hierarchy and served as the defence minister when President Rajapaksa was absent from the country during the Eelam War. <\/p>\n

However, China\u2019s personal equation with Rajapaksa was tailored to cultivate him, taking advantage of his highly personalised style of governance. Rajapaksa and his two brothers controlled the government and managed key ministries e.g., development finance, internal security, defence and urban development immensely benefiting China in furthering its strategic agenda in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and South Asia. So China probably has more problems in coming to terms with the Sirisena rule than any other power i.e., India, the US.<\/p>\n

In the short term, China\u2019s concerns would include recouping its close relations once again with Sri Lanka under President Sirisena lest it loses its strategic gains made in the country and region under the erstwhile Sri Lanka President. On the long term, China would be worried about the Sirisena regime\u2019s desire to correct Rajapaksa\u2019s tilt towards China to balance Sri Lanka\u2019s skewed relationship with India which has the potential to stall China\u2019s strategic security plans in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and affecting the smooth implementation of 21st Century Maritime Silk Route (MSR). <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n


\nShort term concerns <\/strong><\/p>\n

China financed and constructed Rajapaksa\u2019s pet mega projects like the Mattala Rajapaksa international airport (cost: $ 210 million), Hambantota Port Phase-I ($ 361 million) and the Colombo-Katunayake expressway ($ 350 million) as well as the Colombo port carrier terminal expansion. <\/p>\n

Rajapaksa adopted opaque processes to push through the project proposals in parliament without adequate due diligence. Opposition parties trying to probe allegations of corruption in these projects were intimidated by ruling party goons. This was one of the key issues in the opposition campaign in the run up to the presidential poll. Moreover, these allegations if proven could affect China\u2019s brand building during the implementation of its Free Trade Agreement (FTA) signed with Sri Lanka in 2014.<\/p>\n

In keeping with its foreign policy style China cosied up with Rajapaksa, ignoring his autocratic rule and aberrations in governance, allegations of corruption and abuse of power. China also did not bother about Rajapaksa sidelining some of the senior leaders like Sirisena which drove them to challenge Rajapaksa\u2019s bid for a third term. <\/p>\n

These issues relating to China formed the core of the presidential election campaign of Sirisena and his supporters which included the SLFP dissidents led by former President Ms Chandrika Kumaratunga, the United National Party (UNP) and other smaller parties that had quit Rajapaksa\u2019s United Peoples Front Alliance (UPFA) coalition. <\/p>\n

Soon after his election, President Sirisena has started implementing the 100-day action plan. The Plan aims at improving accountability of the executive president to the parliament and empowering the Prime Minister. Assisted by Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, he plans to achieve this by carrying out structural changes in the constitution and introduce systemic changes to clean up the administration to improve governance. The new government has also started the process of investigating and identifying those involved in corruption and misuse of power during President Rajapaksa\u2019s regime. <\/p>\n

As a part of the \u2018cleaning up process,\u2019 Chinese-aided mega projects including those under execution have come under scrutiny. These include the biggest of all them all – the $1337 million Colombo Port City Project – now being executed by a Chinese company. This project to reclaim more than 575 acres (233 hectares) of sea off Galle Face Green, Colombo is mired in controversy due to the opaque process adopted in awarding the project as well as environmental concerns. China has been quite peeved with allegations of corruption and sleaze in the project. A Global Times report described reports of its foreign project failures as Western hype. <\/p>\n

India has also raised concerns over security threats posed by China gaining ownership of 20 acres of freehold land next to the Colombo port where India is a major user. <\/p>\n

However, China took damage control measures and has tried to build bridges with the new regime. Chinese media prominently displayed the Sri Lankan President\u2019s affirmation of commitment to ties with China in his Chinese New Year message. A senior Chinese envoy, Assistant Foreign Minister Liu Jianchao, visited Colombo earlier this month to extend President Xi Jinping\u2019s invitation to President Sirisena to visit Beijing. In preparation Sri Lanka Foreign Minister Samaraweera is visiting China end February 2015 preparatory to President Sirisena\u2019s visit China in March. <\/p>\n

However, Sri Lanka has reassured China of its desire to continue with Chinese-aided projects including the Colombo port city project. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe has clarified in a statement in parliament that a decision would be taken on the Colombo port project after a special committee looks into the shortcoming in the environmental assessment report and a cabinet subcommittee under him examines other aspects. Clarifying the government stand he said, \u201cThis is a massive project and has the sponsorship of the Chinese Government. We cannot abruptly stop such projects\u2026. We are not taking the stance that this project should be completely stopped.\u201d <\/p>\n

Evidently, the coastal reclamation project is here to stay because Sri Lanka would continue to need China\u2019s goodwill to make further investments in Sri Lanka as it has already committed to invest $ 2.18 billion between 2012 and 2014. Even otherwise, it is in Sri Lanka\u2019s interest as the China-Sri Lanka FTA signed last year is likely to give a big boost to bilateral trade and commerce in the coming years. Chinese tourist numbers are already increasing and there is a good chance of Sri Lanka emerging as China\u2019s most favoured tourist destination. <\/p>\n

Sri Lanka Minister for External Affairs Mangala Samaraweera visited Beijing on February 27 and 28, 2015 preparatory to President Sirisena\u2019s visit to Beijing expected to take place in March, 2015. A Xinhua report despite said despite \u2018an apparent backtracking in the approval of a China-funded port project in Colombo\u2019 the visiting Sri Lankan minister after meeting his counterpart Wang Yi reassured Chinese investors by saying “We will always welcome Chinese investment as one of the emerging superpowers in the world.” <\/p>\n

He said the re-examination of the projects was not targeted at China, as Sri Lanka does the same with projects funded by other countries, Samaraweera told reporters. “Anything relating to Chinese investment will be shared and discussed with the government of China before we take any final decision,” he said.<\/p>\n

According to the report, he further added “We hope that with the new reforms in Sri Lanka, more transparency of the government and restoration of rule of law, Chinese investors will find Sri Lanka an even more attractive destination for investment than ever before.”<\/p>\n

We can expect the issue of the future of Chinese projects in Sri Lanka to figure high on the agenda of President Sirisena\u2019s talks with President Xi when he visits Beijing. Sri Lanka can be expected to re-negotiate some aspects of the projects. <\/p>\n

However, the Chinese agreeing to renegotiate the agreed terms of loans appears doubtful as indicated by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying on March 2, 2015. In her response she is reported to have said the loans were offered “at the request of the Sri Lankan side.”.The loan arrangement serves “the interest of Sri Lanka and its people. It has played a positive role in promoting social and economic development of Sri Lanka. From the Foreign Minister’s visit you can see that the Sri Lankan side appreciates China’s assistance to his country. We believe that based on fundamental interests of the two countries and two peoples, our practical cooperation will press ahead.”<\/p>\n

However Sirisena government\u2019s main aim of project probes would appear to be to determine the culpability of Rajapaksa, his family members and cronies in the alleged corrupt deals in the mega projects rather than closing the door on Chinese-aid or projects. <\/p>\n


\nStrategic security relations<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the strategic security level, China\u2019s concerns with the Sirisena government are two-fold. One relates to the new regime\u2019s repeated affirmation that it would correct Rajapaksa\u2019s tilt in favour China at the cost of Sri Lanka\u2019s close relationship with India. The other relates to China\u2019s ambitious power projection in South Asia and Indian Ocean Region (IOR) as part of President Xi Jinping\u2019s realisation of the \u2018Chinese dream.\u2019 <\/p>\n

Rajapaksa\u2019s biggest contribution to China was in helping it gain a firm foothold in the island nation to further its strategic objectives relating to India and the IOR, mid-way astride the Indian Ocean sea lanes. The Chinese-aided port and other infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka have provided a legitimate reason for China\u2019s armed forces, particularly the PLA navy, to gain very close access to the seas of peninsular India. These facilities would be handy for China\u2019s naval power projection in the coming years challenging India\u2019s strategic supremacy in the region. <\/p>\n

Already, Chinese naval ships including two submarines have docked in Colombo port for replenishment and presumably for familiarisation with Indian Ocean waters. Traffic of Chinese war ships is likely to increase to protect China\u2019s growing interests when it completes the MSR. As both Sri Lanka and Maldives have indicated their readiness to join the MSR project when President Xi made his maiden visit to the two countries in September 2014, the best Sri Lanka can do is probably to fine tune it to further its economic interests in the backdrop of India\u2019s security considerations. <\/p>\n

During the visit to Colombo, Xi signed a defence cooperation and maritime security deal with Rajapaksa on September 16, 2014. According to their joint statement both sides agreed \u201cstrengthen defence cooperation and to cooperate in the areas of defence related science and technology, exchange of military academics and providing logistic support.\u201d <\/p>\n

Thus Sri Lanka is now an important pivot in President Xi Jinping\u2019s strategic initiatives to project China\u2019s economic and military power in South Asia and the IOR. Though PLA Navy may not be able to pose a major threat in the IOR in the near term, its potential to do so has strategic implications not only to India and South Asia but major users of Indian Ocean like the US and its Western and Southeast Asian allies including Japan and Australia. <\/p>\n

President Sirisena in his Independence Day speech said \u201cIn considering the past, we make a clear commitment towards following a foreign policy of the middle path, in friendship with all nations,\u201d clearly alluding to the China tilt in the past. So it is not surprising that China has been concerned about President Sirisena\u2019s China policy particularly when he has made mending relations with India as his first priority. <\/p>\n

In his first foreign visit after coming to office, President Sirisena has been warmly received in New Delhi. Four pacts have been signed with India including civil nuclear cooperation agreement. Read in the context of the new regime\u2019s review of all Chinese-aided mega deals for corruption, China\u2019s uncertainty about the new regime is understandable. <\/p>\n

This was not helped when the visiting Sri Lankan foreign minister Samaraweera had told the reporters in Beijing that the new government would have a \u2018different approach\u2019 than the previous Rajapaksa administration allowing a Chinese submarine to dock in Colombo in mid-September 2014. He further added \u201cI really don’t know under which sort of circumstances that led to some submarines.. To the port of Colombo on the very day the Japanese Prime Minister was visiting Sri Lanka. But we will ensure that such incidents, from whatever quarter, do not happen during our tenure.\u201d <\/p>\n

But Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson showed China was in no mood to accept the Sri Lankan view. Replying a question on the subject during the media briefing on March 2, 2015 the Chinese submarine \u201cwas on its way to the Gulf of Aden and Somalia via the Sri Lankan port to resupply.\u201d These were \u201cnormal and transparent activities and it also followed international practices,\u201d she said. She further added that China had Sri Lanka\u2019s consent in advance and \u201cit is my knowledge that it is the policy of the Sri Lankan side to support global anti-piracy campaign and it welcomes docking of submarines from friendly nations.\u201d
\nChina\u2019s strategic concerns over the Sri Lanka regime change have also probably been aggravated by the US\u2019 readiness to reciprocate Sri Lanka\u2019s efforts to mend their fractured relationship. Better relations with the US is important for Sri Lanka not only to improve trade and investment but also to balance its strategic relations with China, particularly after India-US relations have warmed up after President Osama\u2019s recent visit to New Delhi. The US support is also essential for Sri Lanka to find a face saving solution to its three-year standoff with the UNHRC over an international investigation into allegations of Sri Lanka\u2019s war crimes and human rights aberrations during the Eelam War.<\/p>\n

Minister Samaraweera visited Washington in February 2015 and met with the US Secretary of State John Kerry. At the press meet in Washington at the end of the trip, Samaraweera spoke of Sri Lanka\u2019s keen desire \u201cto build upon the manifest goodwill\u201d he found during the talks to deepen and expand the partnership between the two countries. <\/p>\n

This comes at a time when China is already concerned at President Osama administration\u2019s stress on the importance of \u201ccollective action\u201d over unilateral ones in defending U.S. core interests expressed in the second and final strategic security policy unveiled in February 2015. <\/p>\n

Sri Lanka\u2019s overtures to Washington in tandem with India could contribute to strengthen the US\u2019 strategic clout in IOR particularly after the extension of the India-US strategic partnership agreement for five more years during President Osama\u2019s high profile visit to New Delhi. However, China has tried to wish away this development by focusing on China\u2019s desire to build upon the positive aspects of Mode-Xi equation during the Chinese President\u2019s New Delhi visit after Modi\u2019s proposed visit to China in May 2015. <\/p>\n


\nDeveloping triangular relations<\/strong><\/p>\n

China appears to be keen to make the best out of its existing relationship in Sri Lanka by turning President Sirisena\u2019s desire to rebalance Sri Lanka\u2019s relations with India as an opportunity for evolving a China-India-Sri Lanka triangular relationship. This was evident from the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson\u2019s comment on Sirisena\u2019s New Delhi visit: \u201cWe are happy to see close and friendly development of India-Sri Lanka relations.\u201d She said China believed \u201csound relations among three countries are conducive\u201d to them and the whole region. \u201cTherefore we are happy to see development of relations between Sri Lanka and India.\u201d <\/p>\n

Such a relationship looks attractive as all the three countries could build upon their synergies to focus on a win-win situation. For China it gives the advantage of furthering its strategic objectives in IOR and South Asia as well as turn MSR into a successful proposition. <\/p>\n

However, in the world of real politick, it would mean India formalising China\u2019s entry into its strategic space at the cost of losing its dominant role in IOR and Sri Lanka. Moreover, there are serious kinks in the bilateral relations between India and China including the illegal occupation of Indian territory, claims to the whole of Arunachal Pradesh and the unresolved border dispute. <\/p>\n

However, a clearer picture would probably emerge in the coming months after a series of visits – President Sirisena\u2019s visits Beijing in March 2015 after Prime Minister Modi\u2019s maiden visit to Colombo in the same month followed by the Indian Prime Minister\u2019s proposed visit to China in May 2015. The political situation in Sri Lanka would also be clearer by then with the completion of parliamentary elections in the last week of April 2015.<\/p>\n


\n****************************************************
\nNOTES<\/strong><\/p>\n

i. Sunday Times, February 8, 2015 http:\/\/www.sundaytimes.lk\/150208\/columns\/rs-172-billion-chinese-port-city-project-still-in-stormy-seas-134761.html .<\/p>\n

ii. West hypes China\u2019s foreign project failures, Global Times February 4, 2015 http:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/905766.shtml<\/p>\n

iii. Sri Lanka backs China port city deal after threat to cancel, Reuters February 6, 2015 http:\/\/in.reuters.com\/article\/2015\/02\/06\/sri-lanka-china-portcity-idINL4N0VG48S20150206<\/p>\n

1v. Sri Lankan President reaffirms commitment to ties with China, Xinhua February 5, 2015 http:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/906074.shtml<\/p>\n

v. Rs. 172 billion Chinese Port City project still in stormy seas Sunday Times February 8 2015\/ http:\/\/www.sundaytimes.lk\/150208\/columns\/rs-172-billion-chinese-port-city-project-still-in-stormy-seas-134761.html<\/p>\n

vi. Sri Lankan FM reassures Chinese investors, Xinhua, Beijing February 27, 2015 http:\/\/chinaview.cn\/index.html<\/p>\n

vii. India Today, Beijing March 2, 2015 http:\/\/indiatoday.intoday.in\/story\/china-sri-lanka-xi-jinping-submarines-anti-piracy-missions\/1\/421800.html<\/p>\n

viii. \u2018Rajapaksa regime tried to play China against India \u2013 Ranil\u2019 NDTV January 18, 2015 www.ndtv.com<\/p>\n

ix. Sri Lanka, China clinches defence cooperation and maritime security deal http:\/\/www.dnaindia.com\/world\/report-sri-lanka-china-clinches-defence-cooperation-and-maritime-security 17 September 2014<\/p>\n

x. India Today, Beijing March 2, 2015 http:\/\/indiatoday.intoday.in\/story\/china-sri-lanka-xi-jinping-submarines-anti-piracy-missions\/1\/421800.html<\/p>\n

Xi. Remarks by Hon. Mangala Samaraweera, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sri Lanka at the National Press Club, Washington DC 12 February 2015 http:\/\/slembassyusa.org\/embassy_press_releases\/remarks-by-hon-mangala-samaraweera-minister-of-foreign-affairs-of-sri-lanka-at-the-national-press-club-washington-dc-12-february-2015\/<\/p>\n

Xii. \u2018Obama\u2019s new security strategy stresses collective action\u2019 Xinhua, February 6, 2015 http:\/\/news.xinhuanet.com\/english\/world\/2015-02\/07\/c_133977235.html<\/p>\n

xiii. \u2018China proposes a triangular relationship with India-Sri Lanka\u2019 The Hindu, February 18, 2015 http:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/news\/international\/world\/china-proposes-triangular-partnership-with-india-sri-lanka\/article6908867.ece
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

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By Col R Hariharan [This is the text updated on March 2, 2015 of the presentation made at a national seminar on \u201cUnderstanding China \u2013 Indian perspective\u201d organised jointly by the Chennai Centre for China Studies, and Institute for China Studies and the Nelson Mandela chair for Afro-Asian Studies, Mahatma Gandhi University at Kottyam on …<\/p>\n

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