{"id":29897,"date":"2014-05-18T02:22:17","date_gmt":"2014-05-18T06:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=29897"},"modified":"2014-05-18T02:37:07","modified_gmt":"2014-05-18T06:37:07","slug":"sri-lankans-should-exult-narendra-modis-bjp-government-is-not-dependent-on-tamil-nadu-and-jayalalithaas-aiadmk-party","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=29897","title":{"rendered":"Sri Lankans Should Exult Because Narendra Modi’s BJP Government is not Dependent on Tamil Nadu and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK Party."},"content":{"rendered":"

By<\/p>\n

C.A.Chandraprema<\/strong><\/p>\n

An Indian government led by Narendra Modi is now officially upon us and Sri Lanka has to take stock of the situation and weigh its options. The good news is that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has secured a landslide victory winning 339 seats in the 543 member Lok Sabha. The BJP on its own has won 282 seats, more than the 272 required for a simple majority in parliament.\u2002 As such the BJP is in a position to form a government even without its alliance partners. The best part of this good news is that Tamil Nadu\u2019s contribution to the BJP victory is almost zero, with the BJP led Alliance in Tamil Nadu\u2002 winning only two Lok Sabha seats. The BJP has no truck with the major parties in Tamil Nadu with both the DMK and Jayalalitha\u2019s AIADMK remaining aloof from the BJP. Sri Lanka\u2019s ultimate nightmare would have been if Modi came into power with Jayalalitha as a partner in the BJP-led NDA. The nightmare would have turned into a fully fledged horror story if the BJP government had actually been dependent on Jayalalitha to keep the government going.<\/p>\n

But we have managed to escape both situations – Jayalalitha is not a member of the ruling alliance and nor does the BJP require her help to remain in power.\u2002 As we observed in this column, the relationship between her and Modi became increasingly acrimonious as the election campaign drew to a close mainly because the BJP had its own alliance in Tamil Nadu vying for seats with the AIADMK.\u2002 The people of Tamil Nadu completely ignored the BJP despite the fact that a Modi wave was sweeping through the country \u2013 which shows how out of synch Tamil Nadu is with the rest of India. The Tamils are Hindus, but Hindutva has no appeal in that part of India. The relationship between the BJP and the AIADMK had reached such a pass that just before the election results were announced last Friday, Jayalalitha sacked former AIADMK Rajya Sabha member K Malaisamy for merely hinting that his party could support the BJP if the latter won the election.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

So basically, Tamil Nadu has voted itself out of relevance to New Delhi – a situation in which we Lankans should exult. Now there is no pressing reason for the Indian central government to listen to Tamil Nadu when it comes to issues like voting in the UNHRC. By being able to do without Tamil Nadu, the BJP itself has avoided a dire fate. Jayalalitha\u2019s intention at this election was nothing less than yoking the central government like a pack animal to a cart and getting their bidding done. Everyone knows the well publicized intention of getting the Indian central government to push for an international war crimes inquiry against Sri Lanka, reclaiming Kachchativu and getting the central government to push for a UN supervised referendum in Sri Lanka to create a state of Tamil Eelam. These were matters related to Indian foreign policy. But even on the domestic front, the AIADMK\u2002had plans that would have made life impossible for the Indian central government.<\/p>\n


\nIndia escapes petticoat government<\/strong><\/p>\n

If by some misfortune, the Indian central government had been dependent on Tamil Nadu votes to remain in power, they would have been forced to obey Tamil Nadu diktat on a range of issues from the apportioning of the water of the Cavery river, raising the threshold for personal income tax, the pricing of fuel, the apportionment of electricity etctera. The AIADMK manifesto was in fact written on the expressly stated assumption that it would be a member of the coalition that governs at the centre. The AIADMK wanted greater devolution of power to the states and even to dislodge the preeminent position of Hindi as the only official language of India. The AIADMK even demanded that sovereign power be shared EQUALLY between the states and the centre. To make a long story short, neither the Congress nor the BJP could have ruled India with the AIADMK as a coalition partner given the range of issues that it intended dictating terms on. Furthermore, these are not just idle election promises \u2013 if the AIADMK helped prop up the government at the centre, they would have expected the centre to deliver so that the AIADMK could continue to tell the people of Tamil Nadu that they had got this or that done for the Tamil people. As time went on, and the anti-incumbency feeling in Tamil Nadu increased, Jayalalitha would have been making increasingly shrill demands from the central government in order to bolster her support back home.<\/p>\n

The BJP has managed to avoid a terrible fate by not being dependent on the AIADMK to form a government. What this means is that all of Jayalalitha\u2019s plans have come a cropper. The very reason why she contested the election on her own without going into a partnership with any national political party was to have the maximum bargaining power to wring the maximum out of a central government. She did achieve one part of her goal which is to win almost all the seats in Tamil Nadu \u2013 she did win 37 out of 39 seats but even with such a victory, she now finds herself without any hold over the central government and has been reduced to expressing the hope that the BJP government which has been formed without her help will be friendly towards Tamil Nadu. So now we have a situation where for the first time since the late 1980s, where the Sri Lankan government can deal with an Indian central government which is independent of Tamil Nadu. Without the Tamil Nadu factor, the bilateral relationship between India and Sri Lanka can be like the relationship that should exist between two sovereign states. Now India need no longer vote against SL in the UNHRC, nor would it have to call for a UN supervised referendum in SL to form a separate Tamil state.\u2002<\/p>\n

However, back in the\u20021980s when the relationship between SL and India went down the drainpipe, that was not because of Tamil Nadu but because the Indian central government thought that SL was following a foreign policy inimical to Indian interests. This is why they started sponsoring Tamil terrorism to keep the SL government in check. \u2002Now after more than two decades\u2002when there is once again an Indian central government that is not in thrall to Tamil Nadu, the same problem still exists. A resurgent central government in New Delhi would tend to believe that SL\u2019s relationship with countries like China and Pakistan is not in India\u2019s interests. Despite the risk of rubbing the new government in India on the wrong side, Sri Lanka should not compromise one whit on our relationship with China. In fact it was wholly appropriate that one of the most senior military leaders in China was on an official visit to Sri Lanka at the time the results of the Indian election were announced. China and Sri Lanka should draw ever closer precisely because Modi is now in power. As we have pointed out in this column earlier, if India manages to bully Sri Lanka into submission, China will lose control over the sea lanes across the Indian Ocean and that will be the end of Chinese ambitions of becoming the world\u2019s super power.<\/p>\n


\nSL & the vagaries of Indian politics<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the other hand, without China\u2019s protection, there\u2019s no telling what will happen to Sri Lanka with a rejuvenated and belligerent India on our doorstep. This is why this writer has been pressing for a defence pact with China or at the very least a JR-Rajiv style exchange of letters between the leaders of China and Sri Lanka setting out certain understandings. We all know that this is exactly the kind of thing that will really irritate Modi, but that should not deter us from exercising our sovereign right to deal with whatever party we may wish. Besides, though we know that Modi is independent of Tamil Nadu for the time being, how long will that last? We can give it five years at most until the next election. \u2002The BJP\u2019s victory is based on doing exceptionally well in a relatively small number of states. The BJP won all 26 seats in Gujerat, all 25 in Rajasthan, all seven in Delhi, all five in Uttarakhand, 71 out of 80 in Uttar Pradesh, 27 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, 12 out of 14 in Jaharkhand, seven out of 10 in Haryana, 41 out of the 48 seats in Maharashtra (along with its closest ally the Shiv Sena) and so on.<\/p>\n

Rationally speaking, how long can a political party be expected to win every single seat it contests in a given state? This may happen at one election but will change dramatically at the next. At the next election even Jayalalitha will not get the same number of seats that she got this time. Note that even in a situation where there was a pro-Modi wave strong enough to give the BJP every single seat in Rajasthan, in the neighbouring sate of Punjab, the BJP has only a negligible presence winning only two out of 13 seats. Similarly while the BJP did extremely well in the eastern state of Jaharkhand, winning 12 out of 14 seats, in the very next state of West Bengal the BJP got only two out of 42 seats. So we see that the BJP has not been able to carry with it even the whole of the northern belt of states. As for the south, the BJP has almost no presence in Tamil Nadu, none at all in Kerala and just three out of 42 seats in Andra Pradesh (but its alliance partner the Telegu Desam Party has 16 seats in that state). The only southern state where the BJP has a strong presence is Karnataka where they got 17 out of 28 seats. If there is any lesson that we have to learn from history it is never to trust the vagaries of Indian politics.<\/p>\n

Even though conventional wisdom has it that J.R.Jayewardene mismanaged SL\u2019s relationship with India, nothing could be further from the truth. JRJ had an excellent relationship with the Moraji Desai government; it\u2019s just that JRJ backed the wrong horse. The Congress Party lost in 1977 but was back in power by 1980 and Mrs Gandhi hated JRJ for being thick with her political enemies. In India, there can be dramatic changes of government and equally dramatic reversals. Given the concentrated nature of the BJP\u2019s support base and the impossibility of maintaining such an overwhelming predominance in certain states, the BJP is in a vulnerable position in the medium to long term. The BJP itself is obviously aware of this and hence it is unlikely that Modi will disdain any new friends who may want to cosy up to him after his victory. While he may not need their help in his first term in office, whether he will win a second term as PM may be contingent on the support of these new allies among whom will of course be Jayalalitha. \u2002So even though Modi has got enough seats to be independent of Tamil Nadu, in practice, he may not be as independent as we would wish.<\/p>\n


\nRevisiting the D.S. Senanayake policy\u2002<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is even the danger of Modi trying to fulfill some of the Tamil Nadu demands relating to Sri Lanka to compensate for not being able to meet the demands made by Tamil Nadu in relation to domestic policy. We have to re-examine D.S.Senanayake\u2019s policy towards India which was based entirely on containment and deterrence. In order to counterbalance Indian\u2019s might, he entered into a mutual defence pact with Britain which also helped Britain by giving them a hold over Indian Ocean trade routes. But after 1956, S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike jettisoned that policy of deterrence and initiated a follow-the \u2013leader policy. Under Bandaranaike, SL became basically a clone of India by adopting a foreign policy closer to the socialist bloc and a domestic policy of import substitution – just like India. This phase lasted for nearly two decades from 1956 to 1977 during which period it was the SLFP that ruled the country most of the time. Though the UNP ruled the country between 1965 to 1970, they were not able to make much of a change in things.<\/p>\n

Then came the J.R.Jayewardene government which also had a policy of cooperation with the Moraji Desai government, but this relationship turned sour once Mrs Gandhi was back in power by 1980. It was only then that Sri Lanka realized that a policy of cooperation with India meant that one had to do as the Indians did and that Sri Lanka did not have the leeway to decide on their own foreign or domestic policy.\u2002 Under the Bandaranaikes, so long as Sri Lanka had a policy that closely resembled that of India there were no problems; but the moment Sri Lanka had to adopt a different policy problems began to emerge. S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike obviously never considered the implications of removing the British military bases carefully enough. (Perhaps to be fair to Bandaranaike we should add that given the way in which British power waned after World War 2, the British may have pulled out of their own accord by the 1960s anyway.) \u2002The period after the end of the 1980s has been worse, with the Indian central government being held hostage by Tamil Nadu and other states. In the 1950s, when Bandaranaike removed the British military bases, the assumption was that the national political parties in India would always control things at the centre. Had Bandaranaike thought even in his dreams that the Indian central government would one day be held hostage by Tamil Nadu, it is doubtful whether he would have removed the British bases from SL.<\/p>\n

What this shows is that the only policy towards India that will work in the long term is containment and deterrence. J.R. Jayewardene\u2002thought the Americans would \u2018deter\u2019 the Indians from intervening overtly in Sri Lanka but at that time, Sri Lanka was too unimportant in the larger scheme of things for the Americans to rub India on the wrong side. The Americans didn\u2019t need a foothold in the Indian Ocean through SL. They already had Diago Garcia. So JRJ was left to his own devices and was forced to surrender to the Indians and to accept virtual vassal status. But today, we have a different situation where China is the rising power in the world and in order to reach super-power status China needs to ensure the security of its trade routes across the Indian Ocean which it cannot do without Sri Lanka. Likewise, the only hope that Sri Lanka has of preventing overt Indian intervention in Sri Lanka is the presence of China. A permanent defence arrangement between China and Sri Lanka will certainly be a source of disquiet and irritation to India, but then perhaps they should learn to live with it. The Indian central government should realize that because of the Tamil Nadu factor and the vagaries of Indian politics, Sri Lanka has no option but to seek the protection of powerful friends.<\/p>\n

Though now we have for the first time in more than two decades an Indian central government formed by one national party with a clear majority in parliament, this does not mean that India and SL can go back to the follow-the leader policy that existed between the Bandaranaikes and the Nehru dynasty because this new situation in India will most probably not last beyond five years. Whichever way one looks at it, SL has no option but to seek permanent friends and protection from outside the region. \u2002Another danger is that Sri Lanka is just a file in the Indian External Affairs Ministry office. With a population about the size of a large Indian city and no military might to talk of, we just don\u2019t figure in the Indian scheme of things the way Pakistan does. We will have to wait and see whether the BJP government will continue to harp on the implementation of the 13th amendment. This was a major irritant when the Congress Party was in power. Because it was forced on Sri Lanka by a Congress government, the Congress party made the implementation of the 13th amendment a cornerstone of its Sri Lanka policy regardless of the fact that the 13th amendment if fully implemented would plunge a small country like Sri Lanka into chaos. One would hope that a BJP led government would be a little less inclined to press for the implementation \u2018solutions\u2019 that had been imposed on Sri Lanka by a Congress party government.<\/p>\n

The point would of course be to be in a position where no Indian government can dictate terms to Sri Lanka on anything. In the coming months and years, this is going to be a tall order in a situation where India now has a leader who is arguably more aggressive than Nehru but it will have to be done nevertheless. Sri Lanka can cooperate fully with India to prevent the infiltration of South India by Tamil speaking Muslim extremists and Tamil separatist terrorists as those issues are of concern to Sri Lanka as well. But beyond that, it should be strictly business and tourism that should define the relationship between India and Sri Lanka. Though it may irritate the Indians, the Chinese will be here to stay and the India will have to live with it. Some may argue that an India under Modi\u2002will never put up with a Sri Lanka that openly plays host to China right on its own doorstep. But the question is why would Modi not be able to put up with what happens in a sovereign neighbouring country when he has to put up with much worse in the domestic sphere?<\/p>\n

Besides the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka was already a reality by the time he assumed power and to force Sri Lanka to expel the Chinese would be interpreted as a hostile act by China which is also one of India\u2019s neighbours. For India to tell one neighbour not to have anything to do with another one of its neighbours would be a ridiculous state of affairs. In any case the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka is not because the Chinese have any designs on India but only because of the need to protect its shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean – a perfectly legitimate aspiration. It\u2019s not as if China is hoping to penetrate Indian territory from the South through Sri Lanka. \u2002Perhaps the Indians should realize this and learn to ignore the Chinese presence in SL in exchange for SL\u2019s full cooperation in preventing Islamic extremists from infiltrating South India \u2013 a task that SL should do with enthusiasm and relish. Indeed even the Chinese will cooperate in that sphere because Islamic extremism is a problem for China as well. So we are now looking at a new phase in India-SL relations where SL interacts with India not as a pushover client state but as a friendly sovereign neighbour with Chinese protection and strong business ties with India.<\/p>\n

COURTESY:SUNDAY ISLAND<\/em><\/p>\n

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By C.A.Chandraprema An Indian government led by Narendra Modi is now officially upon us and Sri Lanka has to take stock of the situation and weigh its options. The good news is that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has secured a landslide victory winning 339 seats in the 543 member Lok Sabha. The BJP on …<\/p>\n

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