{"id":25880,"date":"2013-09-18T22:53:52","date_gmt":"2013-09-19T02:53:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=25880"},"modified":"2013-09-18T23:32:25","modified_gmt":"2013-09-19T03:32:25","slug":"given-prevalent-anti-rajapaksa-sentiment-the-tna-should-sweep-the-northern-province-comfortably","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/?p=25880","title":{"rendered":"Given Prevalent “Anti-Rajapaksa Sentiment the TNA should Sweep the Northern Province Comfortably."},"content":{"rendered":"

By<\/p>\n

Vishnuguptha<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cScience is not, despite how it is often portrayed, about absolute truths. It is about developing an understanding of the world, making predictions, and then testing these predictions.\u201d<\/em> – ~Brian Schmidt <\/strong><\/p>\n

The much awaited elections for the trio of Provincial Councils, Wayamba, Central and North are upon us. In the next forty eight hours, the people in these three provinces would line up to cast their votes and if the enthusiasm shown by the average voter during the campaign is any indication, no more than fifty five percent (55%) would be on these lines.<\/p>\n

\"MR091813\"<\/a><\/p>\n

President Mahinda Rajapaksa\ufeff opened the newly built “Mahindodaya” science laboratory at Anamaduwa Wilpotha Anura Maha Vidyalaya, on Sep 17-pic: Chandana Perera-news.lk.<\/em><\/p>\n

A lackluster campaign conducted by all parties hardly enthused any voter to wait eagerly for the day of elections; terror campaigns unleashed among the Estate sector Tamils in the Nuwara Eliya district was the exception, while many state-sponsored intimidation during the first four weeks of the campaign period was also reported in the North.
\n
\nBut most of the headlines belonged to the Tamil National Alliance (TNA). Firstly, it is the first time since the de-merger of the North-East provinces that an election is being conducted in the North and the main political party of the Northern Tamils is the front-runner in the province; secondly its Chief Ministerial candidature has been offered to the retired Supreme Court Judge Vigneswaran and thirdly of course, its Election Manifesto has been the talking point among the Colombo elites and media pundits. If one takes into account as to how the Northern voter voted in the last Presidential Elections held in 2010 at which General Sarath Fonseka scored nearly seventy percent (70%) of the vote and given the prevalent \u2018anti-Rajapaksa\u2019 sentiment possessing the Northern mind, the TNA should sweep the Northern Province and quite comfortably so.<\/p>\n

Who would come second in the North is anybody\u2019s guess and it could be interesting to find out how the United National Party (UNP), at one time the second most popular political entity that captured the imagination of the Northern Tamils, except perhaps in the 1982 Presidential Elections at which an overwhelming majority voted for Hector Kobbekaduwa as a protest vote against the UNP import policies that adversely affected the Jaffna farmer, would fare. Tamils in general has been more receptive to the UNP than towards the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP)-led coalitions.<\/p>\n

The Tamil perception of the SLFP has been that of a party of ultra-nationalist and anti-Tamil genre, especially after the annihilation of the Tamil Tigers in the war and this perception would seem to last at least another generation before it shows any signs of subsiding, given the way in which the Government politicians have been brandishing their words and articulating seemingly \u2018nationalistic\u2019 rhetoric. Some partners in the United People\u2019s Freedom Alliance (UPFA), particularly the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU), have been very vocal in their anti-Tamil rhetoric pushing the main coalition partner, the SLFP, to the fringes of national politics.<\/p>\n

Yet, as shown in the recently-concluded elections in other provinces and local bodies, this \u2018nationalist\u2019 shade has served the UPFA quite substantially in that the large majority of Sinhalese Buddhist voters, for whom the war-victory against the hated Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE), is a soothing balm for their everyday worries and something that reminds them of their ancient glories and great Kings who reigned Sri Lanka from Dondra to Point Pedro under the Lion Flag, has overwhelmingly supported the ruling coalition.<\/p>\n

The ground situation in the Wayamba and Central provinces is quite different. In my column on Sunday August 4, I wrote that if the Wayamba elections were to be held the following day, August 5, the UPFA would score a handsome victory, trouncing the UNP and might even result in General Fonseka\u2019s party securing a couple of seats in the Provincial Council assembly. What I wrote in that column is as follows: \u201cOnce again, I emphasize, if the elections are held tomorrow, the UNP will not obtain more than 20% of the total polled in the Wayamba Province.<\/p>\n

In Kurunegala, its share might come down to about 18%-20%, while in the Puttalam District, the result would be in the region of 20%-22%. Sarath Fonseka’s candidates might garner 3% – 5% in both Districts and if they manage to obtain anything above that, then the electorate is definitely sending a very stark and clear signal not only to the leaders of both parties, the UNP and UPFA, but generally to the country as a whole that enough is enough.\u201d<\/p>\n

Have the ground conditions changed since then and if so, in favor of what party or candidate? Ground conditions have changed indeed. The international humiliation that the Sri Lankan regime was handed by the devastating statement by Navanidham Pillay, the United Nations High Commissioner of Human Rights, milk-food shortage created by the withdrawal of products imported from New Zealand and the glaringly manifest incompetence of the Government and the lack of fertilizer for the farmer community are among those issues.<\/p>\n

But one exceptional incident that occurred in Weliweriya where unarmed civilians were the unfortunate targets of bayonets and bullets of the trigger-happy soldiers who were summoned at the order of whom, one still does not dare speculate, transforming a peaceful hamlet into an \u2018experimental killing ground\u2019, could have had a devastating effect, firstly on the voter turnout and secondly on whose side they would have turned out if they did in sizeable numbers on the election day. But there are two significant reasons for the Weliweriya killings not to have any effect on the PC elections in the Wayamba and Central provinces. Firstly, Weliweriya is located neither in the Central nor in the Wayamba province.<\/p>\n

The reason number two is even more distressing for the supporters of the main Opposition party that is contesting. The UNP has been unable to focus on this issue and bring it among the people of the provinces mainly due to the depths that the UNP has fallen into and this has been further enunciated by the total collapse of the organizational structure, its lack of appeal to the ordinary folks as a political party interested in the welfare of the masses, its leader\u2019s unpromising and unimpressive stature and he being already identified by the common man as an agent of a repressive state machinery.<\/p>\n

Against such a background, when one looks at the Central Province, which is the subject of this column, the voter\u2019s response at the polling booth on Election Day would not be all that favorable to the UNP. However, given the intricacies particularly relevant to the Central Province, where caste factor is playing a predominant role on the side of the so-called higher castes, let us look at the last PC election results.<\/p>\n

\"VG091813A\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"VG091813B\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Assumptions:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. A minimum of 55% and a maximum of 60% would cast their votes.<\/p>\n

2. The balance that is not written out here is assumed to be voting for General Fonseka\u2019s Party.<\/p>\n

3. Based on the above, General Fonseka\u2019s Party would gain a minimum of 2 in Maha Nuwara and 1 or zero each in the Matale and Nuwara Eliya districts.<\/p>\n

If the United National Party is going to fare as per above, then the Party is not going to be found dead after the PC elections in the North, Wayamba and Central provinces, but unless some game-changing event occurs within the next eighteen months or so, it will certainly be breathing its last.<\/p>\n

The fundamental argument used in this analysis is that except in 2001, the UNP vote bank has been decreasing progressively and no significant step has been taken to stem the rot. The actors and actresses remain the same; no groundbreaking policy changes have been introduced and with each election cycle, the same players have been appearing on stage and no action whatsoever has been enacted to rid the Party of its damaging image of anti-Sinhala, anti-national stigma.<\/p>\n

Yet the voter is a remarkable person. He or she could be a harbinger of a more inauspicious scenario or on the other hand could well be a silent well-wisher. But all signals go against an optimistic projection. In three days\u2019 time we will definitely know. However, if the above negative projections hold true come morning after the Election Day then if those who wish the Party well, do not take matters into their own hands and initiate some game-changing measures of some significance, this may be the UNP\u2019s last chance. <\/p>\n

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By Vishnuguptha \u201cScience is not, despite how it is often portrayed, about absolute truths. It is about developing an understanding of the world, making predictions, and then testing these predictions.\u201d – ~Brian Schmidt The much awaited elections for the trio of Provincial Councils, Wayamba, Central and North are upon us. In the next forty eight …<\/p>\n

Continue reading ‘Given Prevalent “Anti-Rajapaksa Sentiment the TNA should Sweep the Northern Province Comfortably.’ »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[12],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25880"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25880"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25880\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25888,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25880\/revisions\/25888"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25880"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25880"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dbsjeyaraj.com\/dbsj\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25880"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}